The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Cold Fusion
3x $0.06
Mainframe
1x $0.11
Basket Halftone
3x $0.06
Steel Work
2x $0.07
O-Ranger
1x $0.08
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
10.0% $2.41
Coral Bloom
10.0% $1.36
Red Tide
10.0% $1.05
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $1.01
Blush Pour
10.0% $0.94
Shredded
10.0% $0.79
Max Win
$2.41 (+167.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$0.96 (+6.1%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+62.7%
Cost
$0.90
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $0.90
Ask Price EV $0.96 (+6.1%)
Bid Price EV $0.86 (-3.9%)
Ask Profit $0.06 (+6.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.04 (-3.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.09 (+10.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.06
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.04
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $2.41 (+167.2%)
Worst Case $0.39 (-56.3%)
Volatility +62.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$0.45
Avg Loss -$0.34
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.39 (-56.3%)
Std Dev $0.56
Avg Norm Float 0.1793
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 117h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 19S //TOTAL COST $0.90 //ASK PRICE EV $0.96 //BID PRICE EV $0.86 //ASK PROFIT $0.06 (+6.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.04 (-3.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $2.41 //VOLATILITY +62.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$2.41
+$1.51
+167.2%
$2.19
+$1.29
+143.3%
$0.22
8.9%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$1.36
+$0.46
+50.6%
$1.15
+$0.25
+27.8%
$0.21
15.2%
—
WIN
10.0%
$1.05
+$0.15
+16.7%
$1.01
+$0.11
+12.2%
$0.04
3.8%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$1.01
+$0.10
+11.7%
$0.89
-$0.01
-1.1%
$0.11
11.4%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$0.94
+$0.04
+4.1%
$0.82
-$0.08
-8.9%
$0.12
12.5%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.79
-$0.11
-12.5%
$0.74
-$0.16
-17.8%
$0.05
6.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.71
-$0.19
-20.7%
$0.70
-$0.20
-22.2%
$0.01
1.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.48
-$0.42
-46.3%
$0.38
-$0.52
-57.8%
$0.10
21.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.42
-$0.48
-53.3%
$0.39
-$0.51
-56.7%
$0.03
7.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.39
-$0.51
-56.3%
$0.38
-$0.52
-57.8%
$0.01
3.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14881899999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 2.4050000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:39.454149Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.08965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 0.42,
"optimistic_value": 0.42,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 0.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:52.002930Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.08965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 0.3935,
"optimistic_value": 0.39,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:45.253092Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.08965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 0.4835,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:34:12.043704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0900016073,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 1.005,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:27.049249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.13500232129999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.08965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:27:27.375696Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10758,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.7875,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:50.780201Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.13447499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.05,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:04.766113Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.12164267829999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.937,
"optimistic_value": 0.93,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:07.106935Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_29fd89b63d4a0d84f37cb52e",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "509613089304884871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:42.921270Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "496102290328404239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:42.921270Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "502856892583739272",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:42.921270Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "510738936594594550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:57.551618Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503982792732398611",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:44.498759Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "630083017733692770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:06:21.074440Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "498354089952853087",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:08.364156Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176103663",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:50.918760Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "518620288314188992",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:50.918760Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:11:11.103299Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Exchanger 10.0% $2.42 Acheron 10.0% $2.41 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.23 Facility Negative 10.0% $2.23 Co-Processor 10.0% $2.14 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.84 | $2.42 +73.8% | $1.74 +25.1% | 60.0% | +28.4% | $1.39 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Acheron 12.5% $2.41 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.23 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.23 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.14 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.84 | $2.42 +76.3% | $1.83 +33.7% | 66.7% | +26.2% | $1.37 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Exchanger 7.5% $2.42 Acheron 7.5% $2.41 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.23 Facility Negative 7.5% $2.23 Co-Processor 7.5% $2.14 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.84 | $2.42 +72.5% | $1.65 +17.6% | 53.3% | +30.0% | $1.40 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  30.0% $15.94 Nuclear Garden  3.3% $8.25 Glitched Paint  30.0% $6.74 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $5.85 Random Access  3.3% $4.51 Core Breach  3.3% $1.49 | $15.94 +118.1% | $9.03 +23.6% | 33.3% | +63.5% | $7.31 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  35.0% $418.56 Nouveau Rouge  30.0% $178.22 Remote Control  35.0% $94.77 | $418.56 +99.3% | $233.13 +11.0% | 35.0% | +66.7% | $210.01 | — |