The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Cold Fusion
2x $0.27
Mainframe
2x $0.93
Steel Work
2x $0.14
Basket Halftone
1x $0.29
Citric Acid
2x $0.32
Grey Ghost
1x $0.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
10.0% $17.37
Coral Bloom
10.0% $4.96
Red Tide
10.0% $3.32
Blush Pour
10.0% $2.55
Exchanger
10.0% $2.42
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $2.23
Max Win
$17.37 (+190.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.09 (-31.7%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+75.3%
Cost
$5.99
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.99
Ask Price EV $4.09 (-31.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.95 (-34.1%)
Ask Profit $-1.90 (-31.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.04 (-34.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.14 (+2.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.90
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.04
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $17.37 (+190.0%)
Worst Case $1.84 (-69.3%)
Volatility +75.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$11.38
Avg Loss -$3.37
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.84 (-69.3%)
Std Dev $4.51
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 143h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 48S //TOTAL COST $5.99 //ASK PRICE EV $4.09 //BID PRICE EV $3.95 //ASK PROFIT $-1.90 (-31.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.04 (-34.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $17.37 //VOLATILITY +75.3% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$17.37
+$11.38
+190.0%
$16.98
+$10.99
+183.5%
$0.39
2.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$4.96
-$1.03
-17.2%
$4.92
-$1.07
-17.9%
$0.04
0.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.32
-$2.67
-44.6%
$3.30
-$2.69
-44.9%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.55
-$3.44
-57.4%
$2.09
-$3.90
-65.1%
$0.46
18.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.42
-$3.57
-59.7%
$2.36
-$3.63
-60.6%
$0.06
2.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.23
-$3.76
-62.7%
$2.14
-$3.85
-64.3%
$0.09
4.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.23
-$3.76
-62.8%
$2.16
-$3.83
-63.9%
$0.07
3.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.14
-$3.85
-64.2%
$2.04
-$3.95
-65.9%
$0.10
4.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.88
-$4.11
-68.6%
$1.77
-$4.22
-70.5%
$0.11
5.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.84
-$4.15
-69.3%
$1.74
-$4.25
-71.0%
$0.10
5.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.058066799999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 17.3705,
"optimistic_value": 17.36,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 16.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:46.180805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.03498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.143,
"optimistic_value": 2.08,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:46.191905Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.03498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4155,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:01.946752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.03498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2270000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:26.104174Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.03511719156,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.2335000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.23,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:02.101632Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.052675752359999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.03498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.84,
"optimistic_value": 1.84,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:50.340812Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04197599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.8780000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.85,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:01.907585Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.052469999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.317,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:08.526043Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.047463032759999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.5535,
"optimistic_value": 2.55,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:28.676960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_29fd89b63d4a0d84f37cb52e",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "500605837398877331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:16.621431Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "491597893797538058",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:16.621431Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "528753335313332721",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:46.208597Z"
},
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "523123091079502558",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:46.208597Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:11:11.103299Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "519746188257916784",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:55.531990Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "502857689862568384",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:59:21.404803Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "507361123689186349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:13.729171Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "527627322007356368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:24.508588Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "496101493267636415",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:59:21.404803Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Exchanger 10.0% $2.42 Acheron 10.0% $2.41 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.23 Facility Negative 10.0% $2.23 Co-Processor 10.0% $2.14 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.84 | $2.42 +73.8% | $1.74 +25.1% | 60.0% | +28.4% | $1.39 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Acheron 10.0% $2.41 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 Red Tide 10.0% $1.05 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $1.01 Blush Pour 10.0% $0.94 Shredded 10.0% $0.79 | $2.41 +167.2% | $0.96 +6.1% | 50.0% | +53.3% | $0.90 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Acheron 12.5% $2.41 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.23 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.23 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.14 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.84 | $2.42 +76.3% | $1.83 +33.7% | 66.7% | +26.2% | $1.37 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Exchanger 7.5% $2.42 Acheron 7.5% $2.41 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.23 Facility Negative 7.5% $2.23 Co-Processor 7.5% $2.14 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.84 | $2.42 +72.5% | $1.65 +17.6% | 53.3% | +30.0% | $1.40 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  30.0% $15.94 Nuclear Garden  3.3% $8.25 Glitched Paint  30.0% $6.74 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $5.85 Random Access  3.3% $4.51 Core Breach  3.3% $1.49 | $15.94 +118.1% | $9.03 +23.6% | 33.3% | +63.5% | $7.31 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  35.0% $418.56 Nouveau Rouge  30.0% $178.22 Remote Control  35.0% $94.77 | $418.56 +99.3% | $233.13 +11.0% | 35.0% | +66.7% | $210.01 | — |