The Genesis Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Caged
1x $0.20
Red Wing
1x $0.25
Bullfrog
2x $0.35
Broken Record
1x $0.39
Royal Baroque
2x $0.38
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.42
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $18.08
Royal Guard
25.0% $5.35
Liquidation
10.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
10.0% $1.13
Continuum
10.0% $1.06
Ocular
10.0% $1.04
Max Win
$18.08 (+253.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.68 (+30.8%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+133.1%
Cost
$5.11
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.11
Ask Price EV $6.68 (+30.8%)
Bid Price EV $5.84 (+14.3%)
Ask Profit $1.57 (+30.8%)
Bid Profit $0.73 (+14.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.84 (+16.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.57
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.73
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+253.7%)
Worst Case $1.01 (-80.2%)
Volatility +133.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$6.60
Avg Loss -$3.46
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.01 (-80.2%)
Std Dev $6.80
Avg Norm Float 0.1995
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 149h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 56S //TOTAL COST $5.11 //ASK PRICE EV $6.68 //BID PRICE EV $5.84 //ASK PROFIT $1.57 (+30.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.73 (+14.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +133.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$18.08
+$12.97
+253.7%
$15.21
+$10.10
+197.7%
$2.87
15.9%
—
SMALL WIN
25.0%
$5.35
+$0.24
+4.7%
$5.11
+$0.00
+0.0%
$0.24
4.5%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$4.01
-$1.10
-21.4%
$3.61
-$1.50
-29.4%
$0.40
10.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.13
-$3.98
-77.9%
$1.04
-$4.07
-79.6%
$0.09
8.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.06
-$4.05
-79.2%
$0.96
-$4.15
-81.2%
$0.10
9.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.04
-$4.07
-79.6%
$1.00
-$4.11
-80.4%
$0.04
3.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.01
-$4.10
-80.2%
$0.99
-$4.12
-80.6%
$0.02
2.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.14964750000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.119718,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.348,
"optimistic_value": 5.32,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:23.634650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19953,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 1.0105,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:42.349218Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19953,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 4.0145,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:12.174520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19953,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 1.1305,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:16:13.485553Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19953,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 1.0405,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:58.863223Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19953,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.0605,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:34.790380Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_29fa8bb46644599522e5eee1",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "515242641501267145",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:02:35.622760Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "511864091802652641",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:46.852211Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "523123940968782754",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:53:06.720971Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "641341944860654767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:36.175132Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "511864888985506221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:53:06.720971Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "525375688037571919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:53:19.376360Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "496102290329888807",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:34.591100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "500605942755288971",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:34.591100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "496102343225671715",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:19.992951Z"
},
{
"price": 1.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "498354142899875011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:43.321719Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.57 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 10.0% $2.13 Ocular 10.0% $2.05 | $38.92 +206.5% | $14.73 +16.0% | 50.0% | +111.2% | $12.70 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Liquidation 10.0% $1.36 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.14 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.74 Ocular 10.0% $0.73 | $6.94 +214.2% | $2.45 +11.0% | 25.0% | +114.9% | $2.21 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.93 Liquidation 10.0% $2.49 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.14 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.96 Continuum 10.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.85 | $6.93 +192.4% | $2.63 +10.8% | 35.0% | +103.9% | $2.37 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.35 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Continuum 14.0% $1.07 Ocular 14.0% $1.05 | $18.08 +415.0% | $4.67 +33.1% | 44.0% | +162.4% | $3.51 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.35 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Continuum 8.0% $1.06 Ocular 8.0% $1.05 | $18.08 +198.8% | $7.69 +27.1% | 30.0% | +111.6% | $6.05 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.35 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Continuum 6.0% $1.07 Ocular 6.0% $1.05 | $18.08 +157.9% | $8.70 +24.0% | 35.0% | +97.2% | $7.01 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.35 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 4.0% $1.13 Continuum 4.0% $1.08 Ocular 4.0% $1.06 | $18.08 +127.4% | $9.70 +22.0% | 40.0% | +85.2% | $7.95 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 45.0% $5.35 Liquidation 2.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 2.0% $1.13 Continuum 2.0% $1.08 Ocular 2.0% $1.06 | $18.08 +102.0% | $10.71 +19.6% | 45.0% | +74.0% | $8.95 | — |