The Genesis Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Caged
3x $0.14
Bullfrog
1x $0.18
Trigger Discipline
1x $0.19
Yeti Camo
3x $0.23
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.30
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $6.94
Liquidation
10.0% $1.36
Royal Guard
25.0% $1.14
Cat Fight
10.0% $0.80
Angel Eyes
10.0% $0.74
Ocular
10.0% $0.73
Max Win
$6.94 (+214.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.45 (+11.0%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+117.7%
Cost
$2.21
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.21
Ask Price EV $2.45 (+11.0%)
Bid Price EV $2.15 (-2.9%)
Ask Profit $0.24 (+11.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.06 (-2.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.31 (+13.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.24
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.06
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $6.94 (+214.2%)
Worst Case $0.68 (-69.0%)
Volatility +117.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 75.0%
Avg Win +$4.73
Avg Loss -$1.25
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.68 (-69.0%)
Std Dev $2.60
Avg Norm Float 0.5103
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 151h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Trigger Discipline
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 00M 48S //TOTAL COST $2.21 //ASK PRICE EV $2.45 //BID PRICE EV $2.15 //ASK PROFIT $0.24 (+11.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.06 (-2.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $6.94 //VOLATILITY +117.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$6.94
+$4.73
+214.2%
$6.03
+$3.82
+172.9%
$0.91
13.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.36
-$0.85
-38.4%
$1.17
-$1.04
-47.1%
$0.19
14.0%
—
NUKE
25.0%
$1.14
-$1.07
-48.5%
$1.07
-$1.14
-51.6%
$0.07
6.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.80
-$1.41
-63.6%
$0.66
-$1.55
-70.1%
$0.14
17.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.74
-$1.47
-66.5%
$0.63
-$1.58
-71.5%
$0.11
14.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.73
-$1.48
-66.8%
$0.62
-$1.59
-71.9%
$0.11
15.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.68
-$1.53
-69.0%
$0.64
-$1.57
-71.0%
$0.04
6.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.38273250000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.9435,
"optimistic_value": 6.8,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 6.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:56:54.599031Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.306186,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.139,
"optimistic_value": 1.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:34.957368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.51031,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 0.74,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T20:59:55.865803Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.51031,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 1.3605,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 1.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:14.514541Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.51031,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 0.8035,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T16:04:54.060260Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.51031,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 0.734,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:51:59.982542Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.51031,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 0.6845,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:48.632145Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_29fa8bb46644599522e5eee1",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "527627540537365592",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:32.060371Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "497228243054695061",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:32.060371Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "511864941881732685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:50:07.874986Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "519746241188648456",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:42.204254Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-ab9a15ef8110",
"listing_id": "500605942755514259",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab9a15ef8110.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:22.103222Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "520872141037862616",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:59.705610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "529879340431980696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:59.705610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "514116688950783354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:59.705610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "511864941881716089",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:54.342768Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:54.342768Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.35 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Continuum 10.0% $1.06 Ocular 10.0% $1.04 | $18.08 +253.7% | $6.68 +30.8% | 50.0% | +128.4% | $5.11 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.57 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 10.0% $2.13 Ocular 10.0% $2.05 | $38.92 +206.5% | $14.73 +16.0% | 50.0% | +111.2% | $12.70 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.93 Liquidation 10.0% $2.49 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.14 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.96 Continuum 10.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.85 | $6.93 +192.4% | $2.63 +10.8% | 35.0% | +103.9% | $2.37 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.35 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Continuum 12.0% $1.06 Ocular 12.0% $1.04 | $18.08 +306.2% | $5.68 +27.6% | 40.0% | +139.8% | $4.45 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.35 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Continuum 8.0% $1.06 Ocular 8.0% $1.05 | $18.08 +198.8% | $7.69 +27.1% | 30.0% | +111.6% | $6.05 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.35 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Continuum 14.0% $1.06 Ocular 14.0% $1.06 | $18.08 +387.2% | $4.67 +26.0% | 44.0% | +153.6% | $3.71 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.48 Liquidation 4.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 4.0% $2.16 Angel Eyes 4.0% $2.09 Ocular 4.0% $2.05 | $38.92 +115.2% | $21.60 +19.4% | 40.0% | +78.1% | $18.09 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.48 Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 6.0% $2.16 Angel Eyes 6.0% $2.09 Ocular 6.0% $2.05 | $38.92 +139.1% | $19.30 +18.5% | 35.0% | +88.6% | $16.28 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.48 Liquidation 2.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 2.0% $2.16 Angel Eyes 2.0% $2.09 Ocular 2.0% $2.05 | $38.92 +92.6% | $23.90 +18.3% | 45.0% | +67.2% | $20.21 | — |