The Genesis Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Red Wing
1x $0.69
MAGnitude
1x $1.34
Focus
2x $1.39
Bullfrog
1x $1.61
Royal Baroque
3x $1.44
Reef Grief
1x $2.04
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $38.92
Liquidation
10.0% $19.42
Royal Guard
25.0% $13.57
Cat Fight
10.0% $6.50
Angel Eyes
10.0% $6.27
Continuum
10.0% $6.14
Max Win
$38.92 (+114.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.56 (-3.4%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+71.6%
Cost
$18.19
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.19
Ask Price EV $17.56 (-3.4%)
Bid Price EV $15.99 (-12.1%)
Ask Profit $-0.63 (-3.4%)
Bid Profit $-2.20 (-12.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.58 (+8.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.63
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.20
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+114.0%)
Worst Case $6.09 (-66.5%)
Volatility +71.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$15.16
Avg Loss -$9.13
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.09 (-66.5%)
Std Dev $13.02
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 150h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Factory New
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Factory New
$2.64 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 00M 36S //TOTAL COST $18.19 //ASK PRICE EV $17.56 //BID PRICE EV $15.99 //ASK PROFIT $-0.63 (-3.4%) //BID PROFIT $-2.20 (-12.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +71.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$38.92
+$20.73
+114.0%
$34.38
+$16.19
+89.0%
$4.54
11.7%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$19.42
+$1.23
+6.7%
$16.07
-$2.12
-11.7%
$3.35
17.2%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$13.57
-$4.62
-25.4%
$13.24
-$4.95
-27.2%
$0.32
2.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.50
-$11.69
-64.3%
$6.35
-$11.84
-65.1%
$0.15
2.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.27
-$11.92
-65.5%
$6.21
-$11.98
-65.9%
$0.06
1.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.14
-$12.05
-66.3%
$6.12
-$12.07
-66.4%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.09
-$12.10
-66.5%
$6.07
-$12.12
-66.6%
$0.02
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.052402500000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.041922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.565,
"optimistic_value": 13.53,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:20.986312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 6.27,
"optimistic_value": 6.27,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:38.014542Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 19.4155,
"optimistic_value": 19.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 16.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:11:14.220331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 6.5005,
"optimistic_value": 6.49,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 6.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:45.746003Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 6.09,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 6.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:37.980445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 6.1370000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:11.285483Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_29fa8bb46644599522e5eee1",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "519745391330807492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:57:08.625595Z"
},
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e8947585ba24",
"listing_id": "508487242222011386",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8947585ba24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:34.439927Z"
},
{
"price": 1.39,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "509613142167315039",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:48.208882Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "492724590627113649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:48.208882Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "515242641501200689",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:14.744421Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:04.070971Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:04.070971Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "527627540537511572",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:44.745483Z"
},
{
"price": 2.64,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "511864941881565393",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:44.745749Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:48.573840Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.35 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Continuum 10.0% $1.06 Ocular 10.0% $1.04 | $18.08 +253.7% | $6.68 +30.8% | 50.0% | +128.4% | $5.11 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.57 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 10.0% $2.13 Ocular 10.0% $2.05 | $38.92 +206.5% | $14.73 +16.0% | 50.0% | +111.2% | $12.70 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Liquidation 10.0% $1.36 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.14 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.74 Ocular 10.0% $0.73 | $6.94 +214.2% | $2.45 +11.0% | 25.0% | +114.9% | $2.21 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.93 Liquidation 10.0% $2.49 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.14 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.96 Continuum 10.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.85 | $6.93 +192.4% | $2.63 +10.8% | 35.0% | +103.9% | $2.37 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.35 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Continuum 12.0% $1.06 Ocular 12.0% $1.04 | $18.08 +306.2% | $5.68 +27.6% | 40.0% | +139.8% | $4.45 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.35 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Continuum 8.0% $1.06 Ocular 8.0% $1.05 | $18.08 +198.8% | $7.69 +27.1% | 30.0% | +111.6% | $6.05 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.35 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Continuum 14.0% $1.06 Ocular 14.0% $1.06 | $18.08 +387.2% | $4.67 +26.0% | 44.0% | +153.6% | $3.71 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.48 Liquidation 4.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 4.0% $2.16 Angel Eyes 4.0% $2.09 Ocular 4.0% $2.05 | $38.92 +115.2% | $21.60 +19.4% | 40.0% | +78.1% | $18.09 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.48 Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 6.0% $2.16 Angel Eyes 6.0% $2.09 Ocular 6.0% $2.05 | $38.92 +139.1% | $19.30 +18.5% | 35.0% | +88.6% | $16.28 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.48 Liquidation 2.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 2.0% $2.16 Angel Eyes 2.0% $2.09 Ocular 2.0% $2.05 | $38.92 +92.6% | $23.90 +18.3% | 45.0% | +67.2% | $20.21 | — |