The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Dark Polymer
1x $0.21
Fragment
4x $0.41
RMX
1x $0.58
Zubastick
1x $1.00
Exchanger
2x $0.41
Co-Processor
1x $0.50
↓
Possible Outputs
Random Access
10.0% $19.63
Core Breach
10.0% $8.48
Nuclear Garden
10.0% $8.25
Electrum
14.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
14.0% $5.02
Galigator
14.0% $3.30
Max Win
$19.63 (+260.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.66 (+22.2%)
Win %
44.0%
Volatility
+87.7%
Cost
$5.45
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.45
Ask Price EV $6.66 (+22.2%)
Bid Price EV $6.19 (+13.6%)
Ask Profit $1.21 (+22.2%)
Bid Profit $0.74 (+13.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.47 (+8.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.21
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.74
Risk
Win Probability 44.0%
Loss Probability 56.0%
Best Case $19.63 (+260.3%)
Worst Case $3.12 (-42.8%)
Volatility +87.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 42.0%
Avg Win +$5.04
Avg Loss -$1.80
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.12 (-42.8%)
Std Dev $4.78
Avg Norm Float 0.1396
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 8m
Oldest Output Price 155h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 52M 03S //TOTAL COST $5.45 //ASK PRICE EV $6.66 //BID PRICE EV $6.19 //ASK PROFIT $1.21 (+22.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.74 (+13.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 44.0% //BEST CASE $19.63 //VOLATILITY +87.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$19.63
+$14.18
+260.3%
$19.52
+$14.07
+258.2%
$0.11
0.6%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$8.48
+$3.03
+55.6%
$8.09
+$2.64
+48.4%
$0.39
4.6%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$8.25
+$2.80
+51.4%
$7.16
+$1.71
+31.4%
$1.09
13.3%
—
WIN
14.0%
$7.00
+$1.55
+28.4%
$5.93
+$0.48
+8.8%
$1.07
15.2%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$5.02
-$0.43
-7.9%
$3.97
-$1.48
-27.2%
$1.05
20.9%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$3.30
-$2.15
-39.4%
$3.24
-$2.21
-40.6%
$0.06
1.9%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$3.17
-$2.28
-41.9%
$3.13
-$2.32
-42.6%
$0.04
1.2%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$3.12
-$2.33
-42.8%
$3.10
-$2.35
-43.1%
$0.02
0.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.304,
"optimistic_value": 3.29,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:25.658034Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.1670000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 3.16,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:52.869026Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.12,
"optimistic_value": 3.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:52.739380Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0698,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 19.634,
"optimistic_value": 19.62,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 19.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:08.782410Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.09772,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 8.254,
"optimistic_value": 8.24,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 7.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:00.670069Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 8.480500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 8.4,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 8.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:31.022716Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_28e825ad6b5904920acc62b6",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "506235389469164208",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:16:07.467372Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "490472843633195751",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "526501640651263541",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "505109542380764864",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "519746188259337632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:22:54.586680Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "491598743580519002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "517494441498539734",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:37.819549Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "501731789729328713",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:46.457972Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "492724643508458469",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:25.100404Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "505109489448960284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:46.457972Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:7+collection-set-nuke-2:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 10.0% $4.11 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.78 | $4.11 +87.8% | $2.66 +21.5% | 48.0% | +38.0% | $2.19 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 10.0% $55.76 Core Breach 10.0% $29.13 Random Access 10.0% $19.63 Electrum 14.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 14.0% $12.97 Galigator 14.0% $11.06 | $55.76 +222.9% | $19.38 +12.2% | 44.0% | +72.6% | $17.27 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Random Access 13.3% $4.03 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.78 | $4.11 +90.3% | $2.69 +24.7% | 62.7% | +37.8% | $2.16 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 16.7% $19.77 Core Breach 16.7% $8.48 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $8.25 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.30 | $19.77 +193.8% | $8.25 +22.5% | 60.0% | +75.5% | $6.73 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 6.7% $19.77 Core Breach 6.7% $8.46 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $8.25 Electrum 16.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 16.0% $5.02 Galigator 16.0% $3.34 | $19.77 +310.2% | $5.90 +22.3% | 52.0% | +80.4% | $4.82 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.11 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.85 | $4.11 +75.8% | $2.80 +19.6% | 56.0% | +34.3% | $2.34 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Nuclear Garden 23.3% $55.76 Random Access 23.3% $19.77 Core Breach 23.3% $8.46 Electrum 6.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 6.0% $5.02 Galigator 6.0% $3.34 | $55.76 +208.9% | $20.90 +15.8% | 46.7% | +105.9% | $18.05 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 3.3% $19.63 Core Breach 3.3% $8.48 Nuclear Garden 3.3% $8.25 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Galigator 18.0% $3.30 | $19.63 +340.2% | $5.10 +14.4% | 46.0% | +67.2% | $4.46 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  20.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Remote Control  20.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  20.0% $40.59 Kintsugi  20.0% $38.82 | $418.56 +251.2% | $148.59 +24.7% | 40.0% | +118.4% | $119.18 | — |