The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Fragment
2x $0.66
Zubastick
1x $1.00
RMX
2x $1.92
Bock Blocks
1x $2.04
Dark Polymer
1x $2.12
Exchanger
1x $0.70
↓
Possible Outputs
Nuclear Garden
10.0% $55.76
Core Breach
10.0% $29.13
Random Access
10.0% $19.63
Electrum
14.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
14.0% $12.97
Galigator
14.0% $11.06
Max Win
$55.76 (+222.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.38 (+12.2%)
Win %
44.0%
Volatility
+78.0%
Cost
$17.27
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $17.27
Ask Price EV $19.38 (+12.2%)
Bid Price EV $18.64 (+8.0%)
Ask Profit $2.11 (+12.2%)
Bid Profit $1.37 (+8.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.73 (+4.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.11
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.37
Risk
Win Probability 44.0%
Loss Probability 56.0%
Best Case $55.76 (+222.9%)
Worst Case $10.00 (-42.1%)
Volatility +78.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 42.0%
Avg Win +$12.69
Avg Loss -$6.21
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.00 (-42.1%)
Std Dev $13.47
Avg Norm Float 0.0692
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 11m
Oldest Output Price 155h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Factory New
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Factory New
$2.12 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.22 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.78 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 51M 44S //TOTAL COST $17.27 //ASK PRICE EV $19.38 //BID PRICE EV $18.64 //ASK PROFIT $2.11 (+12.2%) //BID PROFIT $1.37 (+8.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 44.0% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +78.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$55.76
+$38.49
+222.9%
$55.39
+$38.12
+220.7%
$0.37
0.7%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$29.13
+$11.86
+68.7%
$27.72
+$10.45
+60.5%
$1.41
4.8%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$19.63
+$2.36
+13.7%
$19.52
+$2.25
+13.0%
$0.11
0.6%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$19.50
+$2.23
+12.9%
$17.32
+$0.05
+0.3%
$2.18
11.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$12.97
-$4.30
-24.9%
$11.57
-$5.70
-33.0%
$1.40
10.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$11.06
-$6.21
-36.0%
$10.78
-$6.49
-37.6%
$0.28
2.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$10.23
-$7.04
-40.7%
$10.21
-$7.06
-40.9%
$0.02
0.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$10.00
-$7.27
-42.1%
$9.98
-$7.29
-42.2%
$0.02
0.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06923,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06923,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.0575,
"optimistic_value": 11.04,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:28.095828Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06923,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06923,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.233500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:28.053348Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06923,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 10,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:48.980504Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.034615,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 19.634,
"optimistic_value": 19.62,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 19.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:08.782410Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.048461,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 55.757,
"optimistic_value": 55.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 55.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06923,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 29.132,
"optimistic_value": 28.67,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 27.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:24.145914Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_28e825ad6b5904920acc62b6",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "491598743580519002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "517494441498539734",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:37.819549Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "508487242222285778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:50.065948Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "523123940968691674",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:11.083889Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375688036694203",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:04.678761Z"
},
{
"price": 2.12,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "519746241188345048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:22.372179Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "511864941882379353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:11.083889Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "505109489448960284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:46.457972Z"
},
{
"price": 2.22,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "501731842661478209",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:44.148586Z"
},
{
"price": 2.78,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "518620235869057900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:44.148586Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:7+collection-set-nuke-2:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 10.0% $19.63 Core Breach 10.0% $8.48 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $8.25 Electrum 14.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 14.0% $5.02 Galigator 14.0% $3.30 | $19.63 +260.3% | $6.66 +22.2% | 44.0% | +80.8% | $5.45 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 10.0% $4.11 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.78 | $4.11 +87.8% | $2.66 +21.5% | 48.0% | +38.0% | $2.19 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Random Access 13.3% $4.03 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.78 | $4.11 +90.3% | $2.69 +24.7% | 62.7% | +37.8% | $2.16 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 16.7% $19.77 Core Breach 16.7% $8.48 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $8.25 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.30 | $19.77 +193.8% | $8.25 +22.5% | 60.0% | +75.5% | $6.73 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 6.7% $19.77 Core Breach 6.7% $8.46 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $8.25 Electrum 16.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 16.0% $5.02 Galigator 16.0% $3.34 | $19.77 +310.2% | $5.90 +22.3% | 52.0% | +80.4% | $4.82 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.11 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.85 | $4.11 +75.8% | $2.80 +19.6% | 56.0% | +34.3% | $2.34 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Nuclear Garden 23.3% $55.76 Random Access 23.3% $19.77 Core Breach 23.3% $8.46 Electrum 6.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 6.0% $5.02 Galigator 6.0% $3.34 | $55.76 +208.9% | $20.90 +15.8% | 46.7% | +105.9% | $18.05 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 3.3% $19.63 Core Breach 3.3% $8.48 Nuclear Garden 3.3% $8.25 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Galigator 18.0% $3.30 | $19.63 +340.2% | $5.10 +14.4% | 46.0% | +67.2% | $4.46 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  20.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Remote Control  20.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  20.0% $40.59 Kintsugi  20.0% $38.82 | $418.56 +251.2% | $148.59 +24.7% | 40.0% | +118.4% | $119.18 | — |