The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Zubastick
2x $0.15
Fragment
4x $0.20
Bock Blocks
1x $0.24
Exchanger
2x $0.17
Co-Processor
1x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Random Access
10.0% $4.16
Electrum
14.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
10.0% $3.34
Firebreathing
14.0% $2.79
Galigator
14.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
14.0% $1.76
Max Win
$4.16 (+94.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.65 (+23.9%)
Win %
62.0%
Volatility
+46.4%
Cost
$2.14
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.14
Ask Price EV $2.65 (+23.9%)
Bid Price EV $2.40 (+12.0%)
Ask Profit $0.51 (+23.9%)
Bid Profit $0.26 (+12.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.25 (+11.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.51
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.26
Risk
Win Probability 62.0%
Loss Probability 38.0%
Best Case $4.16 (+94.6%)
Worst Case $1.46 (-31.9%)
Volatility +46.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win +$1.12
Avg Loss -$0.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.46 (-31.9%)
Std Dev $0.99
Avg Norm Float 0.2969
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 154h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 36S //TOTAL COST $2.14 //ASK PRICE EV $2.65 //BID PRICE EV $2.40 //ASK PROFIT $0.51 (+23.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.26 (+12.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 62.0% //BEST CASE $4.16 //VOLATILITY +46.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$4.16
+$2.02
+94.6%
$4.00
+$1.86
+86.9%
$0.16
3.9%
—
BIG WIN
14.0%
$4.11
+$1.97
+92.1%
$3.61
+$1.47
+68.7%
$0.50
12.2%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$3.34
+$1.20
+55.9%
$3.22
+$1.08
+50.5%
$0.12
3.5%
—
WIN
14.0%
$2.79
+$0.65
+30.2%
$2.32
+$0.18
+8.4%
$0.47
16.8%
—
PAPER WIN
14.0%
$2.19
+$0.05
+2.2%
$1.74
-$0.40
-18.7%
$0.45
20.4%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$1.76
-$0.38
-17.9%
$1.63
-$0.51
-23.8%
$0.13
7.2%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$1.71
-$0.43
-20.3%
$1.64
-$0.50
-23.4%
$0.07
3.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.46
-$0.68
-31.9%
$1.44
-$0.70
-32.7%
$0.02
1.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.29695,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.29695,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.29695,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.29695,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.705,
"optimistic_value": 1.67,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:59:48.032078Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.29695,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.757,
"optimistic_value": 1.75,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:31.318879Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.148475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 4.1635,
"optimistic_value": 4.09,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:01.156729Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.207865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 3.337,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 3.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T02:38:41.005343Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.29695,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 1.4569999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.45,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:16.685307Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_28e825ad6b5904920acc62b6",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "497228243055051101",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:44.612815Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "505109542380280088",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:44.612815Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "526501640651502293",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:14.306793Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "521998040963332662",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:14.306793Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "494976443342737050",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:14.306793Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "508487242223016110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:33.992864Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "490472843633195751",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:46.547336Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "499480042827984493",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:43.052991Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "526501640651332877",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:11:16.070560Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "526501587737192633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:43.052991Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:7+collection-set-nuke-2:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 10.0% $19.63 Core Breach 10.0% $8.48 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $8.25 Electrum 14.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 14.0% $5.02 Galigator 14.0% $3.30 | $19.63 +282.7% | $6.66 +29.8% | 44.0% | +85.8% | $5.13 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 10.0% $55.76 Core Breach 10.0% $29.13 Random Access 10.0% $19.63 Electrum 14.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 14.0% $12.97 Galigator 14.0% $11.03 | $55.76 +223.2% | $19.37 +12.3% | 44.0% | +72.7% | $17.25 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 13.3% $19.63 Core Breach 13.3% $8.48 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $8.25 Electrum 12.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 12.0% $5.02 Galigator 12.0% $3.33 | $19.63 +235.6% | $7.45 +27.3% | 52.0% | +81.6% | $5.85 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 16.7% $19.63 Core Breach 16.7% $8.48 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $8.25 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.33 | $19.63 +197.5% | $8.23 +24.7% | 60.0% | +76.2% | $6.60 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.16 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.76 | $4.16 +72.0% | $2.80 +15.5% | 56.0% | +34.3% | $2.42 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 6.7% $55.76 Core Breach 6.7% $29.13 Random Access 6.7% $19.63 Electrum 16.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 16.0% $12.97 Galigator 16.0% $11.06 | $55.76 +274.7% | $17.17 +15.4% | 36.0% | +73.3% | $14.88 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 3.3% $55.76 Core Breach 3.3% $29.13 Random Access 3.3% $19.63 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.03 | $55.76 +322.4% | $14.94 +13.2% | 28.0% | +63.5% | $13.20 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Nuclear Garden 23.3% $55.76 Random Access 23.3% $19.63 Core Breach 23.3% $8.48 Electrum 6.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 6.0% $5.02 Galigator 6.0% $3.33 | $55.76 +195.2% | $20.87 +10.5% | 46.7% | +101.2% | $18.89 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  20.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Remote Control  20.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  20.0% $40.59 Kintsugi  20.0% $38.82 | $418.56 +256.5% | $148.59 +26.6% | 40.0% | +120.2% | $117.40 | — |