The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Withered Vine
1x $5.29
Dark Chamber
2x $0.09
Snow Splash
4x $0.10
Vendetta
1x $0.11
Aeolian Dark
2x $0.13
↓
Possible Outputs
Amber Fade
2.5% $151.86
Black & Tan
2.5% $55.01
Quick Sand
2.5% $54.74
New Roots
2.5% $38.92
The Daily Deagle
22.5% $1.00
Creep
22.5% $0.91
Max Win
$151.86 (+2194.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.28 (+25.1%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+398.8%
Cost
$6.62
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.62
Ask Price EV $8.28 (+25.1%)
Bid Price EV $6.68 (+0.9%)
Ask Profit $1.66 (+25.1%)
Bid Profit $0.06 (+0.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.60 (+24.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.66
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.06
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $151.86 (+2194.0%)
Worst Case $0.72 (-89.1%)
Volatility +398.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$68.51
Avg Loss -$5.77
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.72 (-89.1%)
Std Dev $26.40
Avg Norm Float 0.1397
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 139h 18m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Withered Vine
—
Field-Tested
$5.29 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 28M 06S //TOTAL COST $6.62 //ASK PRICE EV $8.28 //BID PRICE EV $6.68 //ASK PROFIT $1.66 (+25.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.06 (+0.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $151.86 //VOLATILITY +398.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$151.86
+$145.24
+2194.0%
$135.10
+$128.48
+1940.8%
$16.76
11.0%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$55.01
+$48.39
+731.0%
$39.99
+$33.37
+504.1%
$15.02
27.3%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$54.74
+$48.12
+726.8%
$33.72
+$27.10
+409.4%
$21.02
38.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$38.92
+$32.30
+487.9%
$30.79
+$24.17
+365.1%
$8.13
20.9%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$1.00
-$5.62
-84.8%
$0.84
-$5.78
-87.3%
$0.16
16.3%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$0.91
-$5.71
-86.3%
$0.86
-$5.76
-87.0%
$0.05
5.2%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$0.78
-$5.84
-88.3%
$0.71
-$5.91
-89.3%
$0.07
8.7%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$0.72
-$5.90
-89.1%
$0.66
-$5.96
-90.0%
$0.06
8.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.11176,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 0.9075,
"optimistic_value": 0.89,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 0.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:34.357886Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.08102599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 1.0035,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 0.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:37.165717Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.104775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 0.7775000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:37.209000Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.090805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 0.7204999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:17.643543Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.076835,
"output_skin_id": "skin-844716d091ce",
"realistic_value": 38.92,
"optimistic_value": 38.01,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots",
"conservative_value": 30.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:33:03.468196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-844716d091ce.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.05588,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dc1a0332945f",
"realistic_value": 151.864,
"optimistic_value": 151.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 135.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:45.954939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dc1a0332945f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-38eda175bd2a",
"realistic_value": 54.736999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 45,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Quick Sand",
"conservative_value": 33.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T12:23:22.548052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-38eda175bd2a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d6ad2c220f9",
"realistic_value": 55.014,
"optimistic_value": 48.56,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Black & Tan",
"conservative_value": 39.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T14:07:38.266587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6ad2c220f9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_243ccddfc303a930b2287055",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 5.29,
"skin_id": "skin-64f26cedec6c",
"listing_id": "496102237884867371",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Withered Vine",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-64f26cedec6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:47:52.985396Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "501731789729824325",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:10.968845Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "496102290328856399",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:46.684261Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "501731789728931849",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:00:17.438862Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "499479937453697917",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:46.684261Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "524249787961174263",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:10.968845Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "492723793457478297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:01.965748Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "526501535292675197",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:01.965748Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "493850490549966700",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:42:12.394784Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "519746188257915992",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:42:12.394784Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2-2021:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Amber Fade 2.5% $151.86 New Roots 2.5% $38.92 Quick Sand 2.5% $37.01 Black & Tan 2.5% $35.68 The Daily Deagle 22.5% $1.00 Creep 22.5% $0.91 | $151.86 +2389.6% | $7.35 +20.6% | 10.0% | +404.0% | $6.10 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 5.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 5.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 5.0% $54.74 New Roots 5.0% $38.92 The Daily Deagle 20.0% $1.00 Creep 20.0% $0.90 | $151.86 +1084.6% | $15.71 +22.5% | 20.0% | +269.6% | $12.82 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 7.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 7.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 7.5% $54.74 New Roots 7.5% $38.92 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $1.00 Creep 17.5% $0.90 | $151.86 +677.6% | $23.14 +18.5% | 30.0% | +203.8% | $19.53 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 10.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 10.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 10.0% $54.74 New Roots 10.0% $38.92 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $1.15 Creep 15.0% $0.91 | $151.86 +451.2% | $30.59 +11.0% | 40.0% | +156.5% | $27.55 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Amber Fade 12.5% $151.86 New Roots 12.5% $38.92 Quick Sand 12.5% $37.01 Black & Tan 12.5% $35.68 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $1.00 Creep 12.5% $0.90 | $151.86 +367.1% | $33.36 +2.6% | 50.0% | +138.4% | $32.51 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Red DDPAT  3.3% $523.81 Orange Anolis  3.3% $512.02 Case Hardened  3.3% $123.02 Breakthrough  45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock  45.0% $4.78 | $523.81 +1077.4% | $46.29 +4.0% | 10.0% | +287.2% | $44.49 | — |