The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Withered Vine
1x $5.29
Aeolian Dark
3x $0.07
Dark Chamber
4x $0.07
Snow Splash
1x $0.10
Vendetta
1x $0.11
↓
Possible Outputs
Amber Fade
2.5% $151.86
New Roots
2.5% $38.92
Quick Sand
2.5% $37.01
Black & Tan
2.5% $35.68
The Daily Deagle
22.5% $1.02
Creep
22.5% $0.90
Max Win
$151.86 (+2318.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.36 (+17.3%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+398.7%
Cost
$6.28
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.28
Ask Price EV $7.36 (+17.3%)
Bid Price EV $6.36 (+1.3%)
Ask Profit $1.08 (+17.3%)
Bid Profit $0.08 (+1.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.00 (+16.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.08
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.08
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $151.86 (+2318.2%)
Worst Case $0.73 (-88.4%)
Volatility +398.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$59.59
Avg Loss -$5.42
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.73 (-88.4%)
Std Dev $25.04
Avg Norm Float 0.1724
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 138h 24m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Withered Vine
—
Field-Tested
$5.29 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 31M 18S //TOTAL COST $6.28 //ASK PRICE EV $7.36 //BID PRICE EV $6.36 //ASK PROFIT $1.08 (+17.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.08 (+1.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $151.86 //VOLATILITY +398.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$151.86
+$145.58
+2318.2%
$135.10
+$128.82
+2051.3%
$16.76
11.0%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$38.92
+$32.64
+519.7%
$30.90
+$24.62
+392.0%
$8.02
20.6%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$37.01
+$30.73
+489.4%
$32.52
+$26.24
+417.8%
$4.49
12.1%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$35.68
+$29.39
+468.1%
$28.54
+$22.26
+354.5%
$7.13
20.0%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$1.02
-$5.26
-83.8%
$0.84
-$5.44
-86.6%
$0.18
17.6%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$0.90
-$5.38
-85.7%
$0.83
-$5.45
-86.8%
$0.07
7.5%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$0.81
-$5.47
-87.1%
$0.71
-$5.57
-88.7%
$0.10
12.0%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$0.73
-$5.55
-88.4%
$0.66
-$5.62
-89.5%
$0.07
9.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.13796,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 0.8975,
"optimistic_value": 0.88,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 0.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:45:51.232507Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.10002099999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 1.02,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 0.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:02.465476Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.1293375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 0.807,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:38.819651Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.1120925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 0.727,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:59.599023Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0948475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-844716d091ce",
"realistic_value": 38.92,
"optimistic_value": 38.01,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots",
"conservative_value": 30.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:41:43.480225Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-844716d091ce.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06898,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dc1a0332945f",
"realistic_value": 151.864,
"optimistic_value": 151.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 135.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:45.954939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dc1a0332945f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.086225,
"output_skin_id": "skin-38eda175bd2a",
"realistic_value": 37.0115,
"optimistic_value": 36.42,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Quick Sand",
"conservative_value": 32.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Quick Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:28:18.295690Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-38eda175bd2a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.086225,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d6ad2c220f9",
"realistic_value": 35.675,
"optimistic_value": 37.26,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Black & Tan",
"conservative_value": 28.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Black & Tan (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:51:18.841075Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6ad2c220f9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_243ccddfc303a930b2287055",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 5.29,
"skin_id": "skin-64f26cedec6c",
"listing_id": "496102237884867371",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Withered Vine",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-64f26cedec6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:26.013814Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "506234592349701984",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:49.078329Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "497228024529123485",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:54.229439Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "501731737286411441",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:54.229439Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "498354089952720427",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:02:47.994759Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "496102290328856399",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:01:23.039892Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "501731789728931849",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:06:47.045880Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "525375688036642615",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:00.238144Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "524249787961126851",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:00.238144Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "514116688949050098",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:02:47.994759Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2-2021:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 2.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 2.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 2.5% $54.74 New Roots 2.5% $38.92 The Daily Deagle 22.5% $1.02 Creep 22.5% $0.90 | $151.86 +2113.8% | $8.29 +20.8% | 10.0% | +377.7% | $6.86 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 5.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 5.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 5.0% $54.74 New Roots 5.0% $38.92 The Daily Deagle 20.0% $1.02 Creep 20.0% $0.90 | $151.86 +1078.2% | $15.72 +21.9% | 20.0% | +268.1% | $12.89 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 7.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 7.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 7.5% $54.74 New Roots 7.5% $38.92 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $1.02 Creep 17.5% $0.86 | $151.86 +674.8% | $23.14 +18.1% | 30.0% | +203.1% | $19.60 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 10.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 10.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 10.0% $54.74 New Roots 10.0% $38.92 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $1.05 Creep 15.0% $0.90 | $151.86 +460.0% | $30.58 +12.7% | 40.0% | +159.0% | $27.12 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 12.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 12.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 12.5% $54.74 New Roots 12.5% $38.92 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $1.02 Creep 12.5% $0.86 | $151.86 +310.2% | $37.99 +2.6% | 50.0% | +121.9% | $37.02 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Red DDPAT  6.7% $523.81 Orange Anolis  6.7% $512.02 Case Hardened  6.7% $123.02 Breakthrough  40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock  40.0% $4.78 | $523.81 +548.1% | $84.06 +4.0% | 20.0% | +213.5% | $80.82 | — |