The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Old Roots
1x $6.72
Snow Splash
2x $0.25
Vendetta
1x $0.29
Snow Splash
3x $0.32
Dark Chamber
2x $0.43
Aeolian Dark
1x $1.33
↓
Possible Outputs
Amber Fade
2.5% $151.86
Black & Tan
2.5% $55.01
Quick Sand
2.5% $54.74
New Roots
2.5% $44.43
Creep
22.5% $2.37
The Daily Deagle
22.5% $2.35
Max Win
$151.86 (+1054.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.64 (-26.8%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+199.3%
Cost
$13.16
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $13.16
Ask Price EV $9.64 (-26.8%)
Bid Price EV $8.00 (-39.2%)
Ask Profit $-3.52 (-26.8%)
Bid Profit $-5.16 (-39.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.63 (+12.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.52
Bid Slippage Buffer -$5.16
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $151.86 (+1054.0%)
Worst Case $1.89 (-85.6%)
Volatility +199.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$63.35
Avg Loss -$10.95
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.89 (-85.6%)
Std Dev $26.23
Avg Norm Float 0.0690
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 139h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Old Roots
—
Minimal Wear
$6.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Factory New
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 27M 37S //TOTAL COST $13.16 //ASK PRICE EV $9.64 //BID PRICE EV $8.00 //ASK PROFIT $-3.52 (-26.8%) //BID PROFIT $-5.16 (-39.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $151.86 //VOLATILITY +199.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$151.86
+$138.70
+1054.0%
$135.10
+$121.94
+926.6%
$16.76
11.0%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$55.01
+$41.85
+318.0%
$39.99
+$26.83
+203.9%
$15.02
27.3%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$54.74
+$41.58
+315.9%
$33.72
+$20.56
+156.2%
$21.02
38.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$44.43
+$31.27
+237.6%
$34.32
+$21.16
+160.8%
$10.11
22.8%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$2.37
-$10.79
-82.0%
$2.35
-$10.81
-82.1%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$2.35
-$10.81
-82.2%
$2.25
-$10.91
-82.9%
$0.10
4.1%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$2.22
-$10.94
-83.2%
$2.10
-$11.06
-84.0%
$0.12
5.3%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$1.89
-$11.27
-85.6%
$1.86
-$11.30
-85.9%
$0.03
1.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.055184000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 2.3735,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 2.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:38:10.087832Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.0400084,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.347,
"optimistic_value": 2.34,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:43.107903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.051735,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 2.217,
"optimistic_value": 2.21,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:13:45.197646Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.044837,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.894,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:47.464696Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.037939,
"output_skin_id": "skin-844716d091ce",
"realistic_value": 44.428000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 43.49,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots",
"conservative_value": 34.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:41.511034Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-844716d091ce.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.027592000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dc1a0332945f",
"realistic_value": 151.864,
"optimistic_value": 151.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 135.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:45.954939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dc1a0332945f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.03449,
"output_skin_id": "skin-38eda175bd2a",
"realistic_value": 54.736999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 45,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Quick Sand",
"conservative_value": 33.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T12:23:22.548052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-38eda175bd2a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.03449,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d6ad2c220f9",
"realistic_value": 55.014,
"optimistic_value": 48.56,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Black & Tan",
"conservative_value": 39.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T14:07:38.266587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6ad2c220f9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_243ccddfc303a930b2287055",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 6.72,
"skin_id": "skin-348f142a19ac",
"listing_id": "497228024529094649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Old Roots (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Old Roots",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-348f142a19ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:58.369553Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "493850490549966700",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:42:12.394784Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "519746188257915992",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:42:12.394784Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "519746188257911384",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:31.741939Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "491598690699432302",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:11.434504Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "508487189339198054",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:11.434504Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "523123888072108378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:40.060119Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "520872088105448808",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:11.434504Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "494976390475599702",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:03.918113Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "596305411417923733",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:40.060119Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2-2021:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 2.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 2.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 2.5% $54.74 New Roots 2.5% $38.92 The Daily Deagle 22.5% $1.00 Creep 22.5% $0.91 | $151.86 +2194.0% | $8.28 +25.1% | 10.0% | +391.5% | $6.62 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Amber Fade 2.5% $151.86 New Roots 2.5% $38.92 Quick Sand 2.5% $37.01 Black & Tan 2.5% $35.68 The Daily Deagle 22.5% $1.00 Creep 22.5% $0.91 | $151.86 +2389.6% | $7.35 +20.6% | 10.0% | +404.0% | $6.10 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 5.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 5.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 5.0% $54.74 New Roots 5.0% $38.92 The Daily Deagle 20.0% $1.00 Creep 20.0% $0.90 | $151.86 +1084.6% | $15.71 +22.5% | 20.0% | +269.6% | $12.82 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 7.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 7.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 7.5% $54.74 New Roots 7.5% $38.92 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $1.00 Creep 17.5% $0.90 | $151.86 +677.6% | $23.14 +18.5% | 30.0% | +203.8% | $19.53 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 10.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 10.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 10.0% $54.74 New Roots 10.0% $38.92 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $1.15 Creep 15.0% $0.91 | $151.86 +451.2% | $30.59 +11.0% | 40.0% | +156.5% | $27.55 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Amber Fade 12.5% $151.86 New Roots 12.5% $38.92 Quick Sand 12.5% $37.01 Black & Tan 12.5% $35.68 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $1.00 Creep 12.5% $0.90 | $151.86 +367.1% | $33.36 +2.6% | 50.0% | +138.4% | $32.51 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Red DDPAT  3.3% $523.81 Orange Anolis  3.3% $512.02 Case Hardened  3.3% $123.02 Breakthrough  45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock  45.0% $4.78 | $523.81 +1077.4% | $46.29 +4.0% | 10.0% | +287.2% | $44.49 | — |