The Revolution Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Fragments
3x $0.11
Rebel
1x $0.14
Late Night Transit
3x $0.48
Green Line
2x $0.60
Run Run Run
1x $0.71
↓
Possible Outputs
Derailment
20.0% $7.13
Charged Up
20.0% $5.48
Whiteout
20.0% $5.25
Emphorosaur-S
8.0% $0.75
Umbral Rabbit
8.0% $0.74
Sakkaku
8.0% $0.66
Max Win
$7.13 (+82.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.84 (-1.7%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+68.1%
Cost
$3.91
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.91
Ask Price EV $3.84 (-1.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.52 (-9.9%)
Ask Profit $-0.07 (-1.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.39 (-9.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.32 (+8.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.39
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $7.13 (+82.3%)
Worst Case $0.62 (-84.2%)
Volatility +68.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$2.04
Avg Loss -$3.23
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.62 (-84.2%)
Std Dev $2.66
Avg Norm Float 0.4072
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 126h 41m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Field-Tested
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 30M 11S //TOTAL COST $3.91 //ASK PRICE EV $3.84 //BID PRICE EV $3.52 //ASK PROFIT $-0.07 (-1.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.39 (-9.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $7.13 //VOLATILITY +68.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$7.13
+$3.22
+82.3%
$6.40
+$2.49
+63.7%
$0.73
10.2%
—
WIN
20.0%
$5.48
+$1.57
+40.2%
$4.88
+$0.97
+24.8%
$0.60
11.0%
—
WIN
20.0%
$5.25
+$1.34
+34.2%
$5.08
+$1.17
+29.9%
$0.17
3.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.75
-$3.16
-80.9%
$0.70
-$3.21
-82.1%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$3.17
-81.1%
$0.69
-$3.22
-82.4%
$0.05
6.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.66
-$3.25
-83.1%
$0.57
-$3.34
-85.4%
$0.09
13.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.63
-$3.28
-83.9%
$0.61
-$3.30
-84.4%
$0.02
3.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.62
-$3.29
-84.2%
$0.55
-$3.36
-85.9%
$0.07
10.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.285047,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.4427774,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 5.2455,
"optimistic_value": 5.2,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:29:59.237187Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.40721,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 5.481,
"optimistic_value": 5.46,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 4.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:43:53.395739Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.3054075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 0.7404999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T03:55:11.491583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.32576800000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 0.7475,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T18:33:49.520496Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.4461818,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 0.66,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:56.763218Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.244326,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 0.63,
"optimistic_value": 0.63,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:25:44.951152Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.40721,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 0.6174999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.6,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:59:08.582257Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2357ceeb50a19bd17c230451",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "514116741797215374",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:43.332496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "493850543432080588",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:43.332496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "505109437007392004",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:43.332496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "518619491429205748",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:23:05.836360Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "500605942755567179",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:29.027676Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "523123888073168722",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:29.027676Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "510739041953634622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:29.027676Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "527627540537546492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:06.821766Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "498354142899910651",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:06.821766Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "492724590627276585",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:53.040503Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:4+collection-set-train-2025:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.46 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $0.74 Sakkaku 8.0% $0.66 | $9.67 +131.4% | $5.13 +22.6% | 60.0% | +78.3% | $4.18 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $42.56 Charged Up 20.0% $22.79 Neoqueen 8.0% $3.17 Banana Cannon 8.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $1.48 | $64.86 +193.8% | $26.76 +21.2% | 60.0% | +100.2% | $22.08 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Charged Up 20.0% $63.69 Derailment 20.0% $42.56 Banana Cannon 8.0% $9.06 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $5.72 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $4.30 | $64.86 +111.1% | $36.12 +17.6% | 60.0% | +75.6% | $30.72 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.53 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 10.0% $0.67 | $9.67 +168.7% | $4.40 +22.2% | 50.0% | +94.5% | $3.60 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.67 Charged Up 23.3% $7.53 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 6.0% $0.67 | $9.67 +98.2% | $5.88 +20.6% | 70.0% | +62.0% | $4.88 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $42.56 Charged Up 26.7% $22.79 Neoqueen 4.0% $3.17 Banana Cannon 4.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 4.0% $1.52 | $64.86 +118.8% | $35.08 +18.4% | 53.3% | +69.3% | $29.64 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.46 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $0.74 Sakkaku 12.0% $0.66 | $9.67 +208.1% | $3.65 +16.1% | 40.0% | +108.0% | $3.14 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $42.56 Charged Up 10.0% $22.79 Neoqueen 14.0% $3.17 Banana Cannon 14.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $1.48 | $64.86 +412.8% | $14.28 +12.9% | 30.0% | +159.2% | $12.65 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  15.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  15.0% $294.44 Wicked Sick  23.3% $34.56 Wild Child  23.3% $33.67 Duality  23.3% $25.77 | $597.10 +409.0% | $155.67 +32.7% | 30.0% | +176.6% | $117.32 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Temukau  40.0% $84.00 Head Shot  40.0% $80.05 | $663.30 +322.2% | $198.28 +26.2% | 20.0% | +148.0% | $157.09 | — |