The Revolution Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Fragments
2x $0.13
Re.built
1x $0.14
Rebel
1x $0.14
Late Night Transit
2x $0.50
Green Line
4x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
20.0% $9.68
Charged Up
20.0% $7.55
Derailment
20.0% $7.13
Emphorosaur-S
8.0% $0.75
Umbral Rabbit
8.0% $0.74
Banana Cannon
8.0% $0.67
Max Win
$9.68 (+131.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.15 (+23.1%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+89.5%
Cost
$4.18
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.18
Ask Price EV $5.15 (+23.1%)
Bid Price EV $4.93 (+17.8%)
Ask Profit $0.97 (+23.1%)
Bid Profit $0.75 (+17.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.22 (+5.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.97
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.75
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $9.68 (+131.5%)
Worst Case $0.64 (-84.8%)
Volatility +89.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.94
Avg Loss -$3.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.64 (-84.8%)
Std Dev $3.74
Avg Norm Float 0.3363
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 125h 42m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.62 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 27M 11S //TOTAL COST $4.18 //ASK PRICE EV $5.15 //BID PRICE EV $4.93 //ASK PROFIT $0.97 (+23.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.75 (+17.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $9.68 //VOLATILITY +89.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$9.68
+$5.50
+131.5%
$9.66
+$5.48
+131.1%
$0.02
0.2%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$7.55
+$3.37
+80.6%
$7.29
+$3.11
+74.4%
$0.26
3.4%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$7.13
+$2.95
+70.6%
$6.40
+$2.22
+53.1%
$0.73
10.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.75
-$3.43
-82.1%
$0.70
-$3.48
-83.3%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$3.44
-82.3%
$0.69
-$3.49
-83.5%
$0.05
6.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.67
-$3.51
-84.0%
$0.62
-$3.56
-85.2%
$0.05
7.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.66
-$3.52
-84.2%
$0.57
-$3.61
-86.4%
$0.09
13.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.64
-$3.54
-84.8%
$0.61
-$3.57
-85.4%
$0.03
4.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.235389,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.3760938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 9.677,
"optimistic_value": 9.67,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 9.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:14.850350Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.33627,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 7.547999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 7.52,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 7.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:51.132453Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.2522025,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 0.7404999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T03:55:11.491583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.26901600000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 0.7475,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T18:33:49.520496Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.4050366,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 0.66,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:56.763218Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.201762,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 0.637,
"optimistic_value": 0.63,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:33.360061Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.33627,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:31.174829Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2357ceeb50a19bd17c230451",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "505109437007392004",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:15:10.021013Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "518619491424619600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:16:24.664720Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "518619491429205748",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:34:37.863288Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "507361342333799017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:50.198830Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "523123888073168722",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:08.322796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "510739041953634622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:08.322796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "520872141037677576",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "490472790737415795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.62,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "524249840858869023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "516368322941670446",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:4+collection-set-train-2025:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.39 Charged Up 20.0% $22.78 Neoqueen 8.0% $3.17 Banana Cannon 8.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $1.49 | $64.86 +188.0% | $27.13 +20.5% | 60.0% | +99.2% | $22.52 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Charged Up 20.0% $65.07 Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.39 Banana Cannon 8.0% $9.06 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $5.72 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $4.30 | $65.07 +108.4% | $36.76 +17.7% | 60.0% | +75.3% | $31.23 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Charged Up 20.0% $5.48 Whiteout 20.0% $5.23 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $0.74 Sakkaku 8.0% $0.66 | $7.13 +86.1% | $3.84 +0.3% | 60.0% | +60.8% | $3.83 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.53 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 10.0% $0.67 | $9.67 +168.7% | $4.40 +22.2% | 50.0% | +94.5% | $3.60 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.68 Charged Up 23.3% $7.75 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 6.0% $0.67 | $9.68 +97.9% | $5.94 +21.4% | 70.0% | +62.2% | $4.89 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $44.39 Charged Up 13.3% $22.78 Neoqueen 12.0% $3.17 Banana Cannon 12.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $1.59 | $64.86 +310.5% | $18.70 +18.3% | 40.0% | +137.7% | $15.80 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $43.71 Charged Up 26.7% $22.86 Neoqueen 4.0% $3.17 Banana Cannon 4.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 4.0% $1.49 | $64.86 +114.1% | $35.41 +16.9% | 53.3% | +68.0% | $30.30 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $44.39 Charged Up 10.0% $22.78 Neoqueen 14.0% $3.17 Banana Cannon 14.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $1.49 | $64.86 +406.0% | $14.46 +12.8% | 30.0% | +158.9% | $12.82 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  10.0% $663.30 Temukau  45.0% $84.00 Head Shot  45.0% $79.96 | $663.30 +490.0% | $140.11 +24.6% | 10.0% | +155.1% | $112.42 | — |