The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Fracture Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Distressed
5x $0.26
Freight
1x $0.17
Gnarled
4x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Fever Dream
10.0% $8.04
Acid Etched
10.0% $5.54
Apocalypto
10.0% $4.36
Darkwing
10.0% $3.78
Enforcer
10.0% $3.25
Monster Call
10.0% $2.47
Max Win
$8.04 (+161.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.63 (+18.3%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+59.3%
Cost
$3.07
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.07
Ask Price EV $3.63 (+18.3%)
Bid Price EV $3.07 (-0.0%)
Ask Profit $0.56 (+18.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.00 (-0.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.56 (+18.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.56
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.00
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $8.04 (+161.8%)
Worst Case $2.00 (-34.9%)
Volatility +59.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$1.92
Avg Loss -$0.80
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.00 (-34.9%)
Std Dev $1.82
Avg Norm Float 0.1499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 152h 8m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 35S //TOTAL COST $3.07 //ASK PRICE EV $3.63 //BID PRICE EV $3.07 //ASK PROFIT $0.56 (+18.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.00 (-0.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $8.04 //VOLATILITY +59.3% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$8.04
+$4.97
+161.8%
$7.38
+$4.31
+140.4%
$0.66
8.2%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$5.54
+$2.47
+80.5%
$4.68
+$1.61
+52.4%
$0.86
15.5%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$4.36
+$1.29
+41.9%
$3.34
+$0.27
+8.8%
$1.02
23.3%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$3.78
+$0.71
+23.3%
$3.19
+$0.12
+3.9%
$0.59
15.7%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$3.25
+$0.18
+5.9%
$2.62
-$0.45
-14.7%
$0.63
19.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.47
-$0.60
-19.4%
$2.11
-$0.96
-31.3%
$0.36
14.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.38
-$0.69
-22.6%
$1.97
-$1.10
-35.8%
$0.41
17.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.28
-$0.79
-25.7%
$1.84
-$1.23
-40.1%
$0.44
19.3%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.23
-$0.84
-27.3%
$1.95
-$1.12
-36.5%
$0.28
12.6%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.00
-$1.07
-34.9%
$1.62
-$1.45
-47.2%
$0.38
19.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11994400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 2.2305,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:58:17.794467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 1.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:11:49.798269Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 2.4739999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.46,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 2.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:10:03.152892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11994400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 2,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:45.241887Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 5.541,
"optimistic_value": 5.45,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 4.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T20:21:10.414344Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 3.2505,
"optimistic_value": 3.24,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:32:20.126787Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 3.784,
"optimistic_value": 3.77,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:24:33.889591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1079496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.0375,
"optimistic_value": 7.53,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 7.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:32:39.583432Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 4.357,
"optimistic_value": 3.79,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T19:14:02.736841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 2.3775,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 1.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:21:57.758157Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_22ce820a806e715e961511a4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "516368541588637910",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:08.782502Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "493850438107893880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:08.782502Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "501730992868715561",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:08.782502Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "518620122757916680",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:05.048419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "490472625092404815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:05.048419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "524249840859374139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:28:22.510559Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "526501640651045813",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:35:20.196718Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "508487189339347994",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:35:20.196718Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "524249840859622467",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:07.454388Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "496102290329960051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:07.454388Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-25:5+collection-set-community-26:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Fracture Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 10.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 10.0% $17.96 Darkwing 10.0% $13.75 Brother 10.0% $11.85 Apocalypto 10.0% $11.36 Enforcer 10.0% $11.21 | $18.94 +100.6% | $11.24 +19.1% | 60.0% | +35.3% | $9.44 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Fracture Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 8.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 8.0% $17.96 Darkwing 8.0% $13.75 Brother 12.0% $11.85 Apocalypto 8.0% $11.36 Enforcer 8.0% $11.21 | $18.94 +119.4% | $10.56 +22.4% | 52.0% | +38.6% | $8.63 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Fracture Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 12.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 12.0% $17.96 Darkwing 12.0% $13.75 Brother 8.0% $11.85 Apocalypto 12.0% $11.36 Enforcer 12.0% $11.21 | $18.94 +93.2% | $11.92 +21.7% | 68.0% | +33.5% | $9.80 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×7+The Fracture Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 14.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 14.0% $5.54 Apocalypto 14.0% $4.36 Darkwing 14.0% $3.82 Enforcer 14.0% $3.25 Monster Call 6.0% $2.47 | $8.04 +129.6% | $4.18 +19.5% | 56.0% | +46.6% | $3.50 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Fracture Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 6.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 6.0% $17.96 Darkwing 6.0% $13.75 Brother 14.0% $11.85 Apocalypto 6.0% $11.36 Enforcer 6.0% $11.21 | $18.94 +128.7% | $9.88 +19.4% | 44.0% | +39.1% | $8.28 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Fracture Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 16.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 16.0% $5.54 Apocalypto 16.0% $4.36 Darkwing 16.0% $3.78 Enforcer 16.0% $3.25 Monster Call 4.0% $2.47 | $8.04 +114.9% | $4.45 +19.0% | 64.0% | +44.0% | $3.74 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Fracture Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 4.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 4.0% $17.96 Darkwing 4.0% $13.75 Brother 16.0% $11.85 Apocalypto 4.0% $11.36 Enforcer 4.0% $11.21 | $18.94 +133.2% | $9.21 +13.4% | 52.0% | +37.2% | $8.12 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Fracture Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Phantom Disruptor  6.7% $30.48 Tooth Fairy  26.7% $19.65 Vogue  26.7% $16.88 Disco Tech  6.7% $13.93 Justice  6.7% $10.32 Entombed  26.7% $9.36 | $30.48 +113.0% | $15.88 +11.0% | 60.0% | +39.5% | $14.31 | — |