The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Fracture Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Distressed
4x $0.26
Desert Strike
1x $0.27
Gnarled
4x $0.15
Freight
1x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Fever Dream
10.0% $8.04
Connexion
10.0% $2.23
Kitbash
10.0% $2.00
Acid Etched
10.0% $1.98
Apocalypto
10.0% $1.66
Darkwing
10.0% $1.63
Max Win
$8.04 (+234.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.21 (-7.7%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+82.7%
Cost
$2.40
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.40
Ask Price EV $2.21 (-7.7%)
Bid Price EV $1.98 (-17.6%)
Ask Profit $-0.19 (-7.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.42 (-17.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+9.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.19
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.42
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $8.04 (+234.9%)
Worst Case $0.96 (-60.1%)
Volatility +82.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$5.64
Avg Loss -$0.83
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.96 (-60.1%)
Std Dev $1.98
Avg Norm Float 0.1854
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 153h 11m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Field-Tested
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Field-Tested
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 04M 43S //TOTAL COST $2.40 //ASK PRICE EV $2.21 //BID PRICE EV $1.98 //ASK PROFIT $-0.19 (-7.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.42 (-17.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $8.04 //VOLATILITY +82.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$8.04
+$5.64
+234.9%
$7.38
+$4.98
+207.5%
$0.66
8.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.23
-$0.17
-7.1%
$1.95
-$0.45
-18.8%
$0.28
12.6%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.00
-$0.40
-16.7%
$1.62
-$0.78
-32.5%
$0.38
19.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.98
-$0.42
-17.6%
$1.76
-$0.64
-26.7%
$0.22
11.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.66
-$0.74
-30.9%
$1.39
-$1.01
-42.1%
$0.27
16.1%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.63
-$0.77
-32.1%
$1.46
-$0.94
-39.2%
$0.17
10.4%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.53
-$0.87
-36.3%
$1.50
-$0.90
-37.5%
$0.03
1.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.11
-$1.29
-53.9%
$0.95
-$1.45
-60.4%
$0.16
14.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.02
-$1.38
-57.5%
$0.89
-$1.51
-62.9%
$0.13
12.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.96
-$1.44
-60.1%
$0.88
-$1.52
-63.3%
$0.08
8.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.148336,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 2.2305,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:58:17.794467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.18542,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.957,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:39:21.382674Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.18542,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 1.107,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T18:26:14.119971Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.148336,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 2,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:04.108283Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.18542,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 1.9769999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.97,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 1.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:26.613826Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.18542,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 1.528,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 1.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:39:17.955133Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.18542,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 1.629,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 1.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:27.376754Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1335024,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.0375,
"optimistic_value": 7.53,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 7.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:32:39.583432Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.18542,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 1.6575,
"optimistic_value": 1.64,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 1.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T13:01:11.935890Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.18542,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 1.0205,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T03:21:05.901970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_22ce820a806e715e961511a4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "516368541588637910",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:19.569288Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "520872088107230916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:36:49.787997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "493850438107893880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:19.569288Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "496101493276070891",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:19.569288Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "523123091047708294",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:19.569288Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "500605942756420595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:43.903496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "507361123691914033",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:43.903496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "494976390476283018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:42:30.405828Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "508487189339347994",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:43.903496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "511864941882454521",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:48.376541Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-25:5+collection-set-community-26:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Fracture Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 10.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 10.0% $5.54 Apocalypto 10.0% $4.36 Darkwing 10.0% $3.79 Enforcer 10.0% $3.25 Monster Call 10.0% $2.47 | $8.04 +163.5% | $3.63 +19.1% | 50.0% | +51.9% | $3.05 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Fracture Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 10.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 10.0% $17.96 Darkwing 10.0% $13.75 Brother 10.0% $11.85 Enforcer 10.0% $11.37 Apocalypto 10.0% $11.36 | $18.94 +96.9% | $11.26 +17.1% | 60.0% | +34.5% | $9.62 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Fracture Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 8.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 8.0% $17.96 Darkwing 8.0% $13.75 Brother 12.0% $11.85 Enforcer 8.0% $11.37 Apocalypto 8.0% $11.36 | $18.94 +118.7% | $10.56 +22.0% | 52.0% | +38.5% | $8.66 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Fracture Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 12.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 12.0% $5.54 Apocalypto 12.0% $4.36 Darkwing 12.0% $3.79 Enforcer 12.0% $3.25 Monster Call 8.0% $2.47 | $8.04 +146.5% | $3.91 +19.8% | 48.0% | +49.6% | $3.26 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×7+The Fracture Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 14.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 14.0% $5.54 Apocalypto 14.0% $4.36 Darkwing 14.0% $3.82 Enforcer 14.0% $3.25 Monster Call 6.0% $2.47 | $8.04 +129.6% | $4.18 +19.5% | 56.0% | +46.6% | $3.50 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Fracture Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 6.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 6.0% $17.96 Darkwing 6.0% $13.75 Brother 14.0% $11.85 Enforcer 6.0% $11.37 Apocalypto 6.0% $11.36 | $18.94 +127.9% | $9.88 +18.9% | 44.0% | +39.1% | $8.31 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Fracture Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 16.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 16.0% $5.54 Apocalypto 16.0% $4.36 Darkwing 16.0% $3.82 Enforcer 16.0% $3.25 Monster Call 4.0% $2.47 | $8.04 +113.2% | $4.46 +18.2% | 64.0% | +43.6% | $3.77 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Fracture Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 4.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 4.0% $17.96 Darkwing 4.0% $13.75 Brother 16.0% $11.85 Enforcer 4.0% $11.37 Apocalypto 4.0% $11.36 | $18.94 +134.7% | $9.19 +13.9% | 52.0% | +37.6% | $8.07 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Fracture Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Phantom Disruptor  6.7% $30.48 Tooth Fairy  26.7% $19.65 Vogue  26.7% $16.88 Disco Tech  6.7% $13.93 Justice  6.7% $10.29 Entombed  26.7% $9.36 | $30.48 +109.9% | $15.88 +9.4% | 60.0% | +38.9% | $14.52 | — |