The Lake Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Mudder
3x $0.08
Basket Halftone
3x $0.10
Grey Ghost
2x $0.13
Steel Work
2x $0.14
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Ops
10.0% $7.22
Arsenic Spill
11.7% $2.16
Rose Hex
11.7% $1.80
Shredded
11.7% $1.79
Teardown
10.0% $1.65
Coral Bloom
11.7% $1.36
Max Win
$7.22 (+359.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.05 (+30.4%)
Win %
55.0%
Volatility
+112.7%
Cost
$1.57
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.57
Ask Price EV $2.05 (+30.4%)
Bid Price EV $1.95 (+24.2%)
Ask Profit $0.48 (+30.4%)
Bid Profit $0.38 (+24.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.10 (+6.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.48
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.38
Risk
Win Probability 55.0%
Loss Probability 45.0%
Best Case $7.22 (+359.7%)
Worst Case $0.95 (-39.3%)
Volatility +112.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 33.3%
Avg Win +$1.26
Avg Loss -$0.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.95 (-39.3%)
Std Dev $1.77
Avg Norm Float 0.1164
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 148h 47m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 53S //TOTAL COST $1.57 //ASK PRICE EV $2.05 //BID PRICE EV $1.95 //ASK PROFIT $0.48 (+30.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.38 (+24.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 55.0% //BEST CASE $7.22 //VOLATILITY +112.7% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$7.22
+$5.65
+359.7%
$6.84
+$5.27
+335.7%
$0.38
5.2%
—
WIN
11.7%
$2.16
+$0.59
+37.9%
$2.09
+$0.52
+33.1%
$0.07
3.4%
—
SMALL WIN
11.7%
$1.80
+$0.23
+14.6%
$1.77
+$0.20
+12.7%
$0.03
1.7%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
11.7%
$1.79
+$0.22
+13.8%
$1.77
+$0.20
+12.7%
$0.02
1.0%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.65
+$0.08
+5.1%
$1.64
+$0.07
+4.5%
$0.01
0.6%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$1.36
-$0.21
-13.7%
$1.15
-$0.42
-26.8%
$0.21
15.2%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$1.02
-$0.55
-34.8%
$1.00
-$0.57
-36.3%
$0.02
2.3%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.01
-$0.56
-35.6%
$0.99
-$0.58
-36.9%
$0.02
2.0%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$0.95
-$0.62
-39.3%
$0.82
-$0.75
-47.8%
$0.13
14.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.0584282604,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.1645,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:49.841481Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.0876423324,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.0582,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:17.761081Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.787,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:48.840177Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.0873,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.024,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:49.903305Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.0789693684,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9534999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:33.115956Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:45:48.237051Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.009312,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0105,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:09.453374Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1e93774d673462e076c51a30",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "512989991912631707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:55.339682Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "500605942755441071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:55.339682Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "491598743580381806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:27.077827Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "492724643506992549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:42.074571Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "518620288314188992",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:42.074571Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "523123091070954826",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:01:31.367885Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "509613089305540863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:01:31.367885Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:01:15.346730Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "527627435179952036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:01:15.346730Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "525375740885273911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:11.422898Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 Red Tide 11.7% $1.02 Anodized Navy 10.0% $1.01 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 11.7% $0.95 Shredded 11.7% $0.77 | $1.36 +78.4% | $0.89 +17.6% | 68.3% | +23.4% | $0.76 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 20.0% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.16 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.80 Shredded 6.7% $1.79 Teardown 20.0% $1.65 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.36 | $7.22 +252.1% | $2.58 +25.9% | 26.7% | +105.4% | $2.05 | — |
The Lake Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 23.3% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 5.0% $2.16 Rose Hex 5.0% $1.80 Shredded 5.0% $1.79 Teardown 23.3% $1.65 Coral Bloom 5.0% $1.36 | $7.22 +223.7% | $2.76 +23.8% | 23.3% | +101.6% | $2.23 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint  30.0% $6.55 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $5.65 Cobalt Quartz  10.0% $0.61 | $15.94 +125.8% | $8.50 +20.5% | 30.0% | +72.8% | $7.06 | — |