The Lake Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Cyanospatter
1x $0.34
Mudder
1x $0.36
Night Ops
1x $1.44
Steel Work
3x $0.14
Basket Halftone
1x $0.29
Citric Acid
2x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Ops
10.0% $7.22
Coral Bloom
11.7% $4.96
Red Tide
11.7% $3.32
Blush Pour
11.7% $2.38
Arsenic Spill
11.7% $2.13
Rose Hex
11.7% $1.80
Max Win
$7.22 (+37.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.90 (-44.8%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+34.5%
Cost
$5.25
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.25
Ask Price EV $2.90 (-44.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.81 (-46.6%)
Ask Profit $-2.35 (-44.8%)
Bid Profit $-2.44 (-46.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.09 (+1.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.35
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.44
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $7.22 (+37.5%)
Worst Case $1.01 (-80.8%)
Volatility +34.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 78.3%
Avg Win +$1.97
Avg Loss -$2.83
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.01 (-80.8%)
Std Dev $1.81
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 149h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Ops
—
Factory New
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 22S //TOTAL COST $5.25 //ASK PRICE EV $2.90 //BID PRICE EV $2.81 //ASK PROFIT $-2.35 (-44.8%) //BID PROFIT $-2.44 (-46.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $7.22 //VOLATILITY +34.5% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
10.0%
$7.22
+$1.97
+37.5%
$6.84
+$1.59
+30.3%
$0.38
5.2%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$4.96
-$0.29
-5.5%
$4.92
-$0.33
-6.3%
$0.04
0.8%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$3.32
-$1.93
-36.8%
$3.30
-$1.95
-37.1%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$2.38
-$2.87
-54.6%
$2.09
-$3.16
-60.2%
$0.29
12.3%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$2.13
-$3.12
-59.5%
$2.08
-$3.17
-60.4%
$0.05
2.1%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$1.80
-$3.45
-65.7%
$1.77
-$3.48
-66.3%
$0.03
1.7%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$1.79
-$3.46
-66.0%
$1.77
-$3.48
-66.3%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.65
-$3.60
-68.6%
$1.64
-$3.61
-68.8%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.01
-$4.24
-80.8%
$0.99
-$4.26
-81.1%
$0.02
2.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.03510715234,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.1255,
"optimistic_value": 2.08,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:15.096454Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.05266069354,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.03497,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:16.360277Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.041964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.787,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:40.024210Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.052455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.317,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:07.135655Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.04744946414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.384,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:16.509431Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:43.727512Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.005595200000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0105,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:09:22.570981Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1e93774d673462e076c51a30",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "508487189340902726",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:05.481804Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "502857742726779976",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:51.858160Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-1cae9ba1aa38",
"listing_id": "506234592341299476",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Ops",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1cae9ba1aa38.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:58.054637Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:14:53.220968Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "527627435179952036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:14:53.220968Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "525375740885273911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:25.180101Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "502857689862568384",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:01:03.900880Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "494976390477373962",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:16.073411Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "490472843632895547",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:18.959926Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "496101493267636415",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:01:03.900880Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 10.0% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.13 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.80 Shredded 11.7% $1.79 Teardown 10.0% $1.65 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 | $7.22 +348.3% | $2.04 +26.9% | 55.0% | +103.3% | $1.61 | — |
The Lake Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 Red Tide 11.7% $1.02 Anodized Navy 10.0% $1.01 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 11.7% $0.95 Shredded 11.7% $0.81 | $1.36 +78.4% | $0.89 +17.2% | 68.3% | +23.3% | $0.76 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 13.3% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.12 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.80 Shredded 10.0% $1.78 Teardown 13.3% $1.65 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 | $7.22 +327.1% | $2.22 +31.4% | 43.3% | +110.5% | $1.69 | — |
The Lake Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 20.0% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.12 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.80 Shredded 6.7% $1.78 Teardown 20.0% $1.65 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.36 | $7.22 +264.5% | $2.58 +30.2% | 26.7% | +109.2% | $1.98 | — |
The Lake Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 23.3% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 5.0% $2.12 Rose Hex 5.0% $1.80 Shredded 5.0% $1.78 Teardown 23.3% $1.65 Coral Bloom 5.0% $1.36 | $7.22 +212.4% | $2.76 +19.3% | 23.3% | +98.2% | $2.31 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint  30.0% $6.84 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $5.54 Cobalt Quartz  10.0% $0.61 | $15.94 +127.1% | $8.56 +21.9% | 30.0% | +73.0% | $7.02 | — |