The Lake Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Cyanospatter
1x $0.06
Mudder
2x $0.08
Grey Ghost
2x $0.05
Basket Halftone
3x $0.06
Steel Work
1x $0.07
O-Ranger
1x $0.08
↓
Possible Outputs
Coral Bloom
11.7% $1.36
Red Tide
11.7% $1.02
Anodized Navy
10.0% $1.01
Arsenic Spill
11.7% $1.01
Blush Pour
11.7% $0.95
Shredded
11.7% $0.81
Max Win
$1.36 (+78.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$0.89 (+17.2%)
Win %
68.3%
Volatility
+33.4%
Cost
$0.76
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.76
Ask Price EV $0.89 (+17.2%)
Bid Price EV $0.81 (+7.0%)
Ask Profit $0.13 (+17.2%)
Bid Profit $0.05 (+7.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+10.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.13
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.05
Risk
Win Probability 68.3%
Loss Probability 31.7%
Best Case $1.36 (+78.4%)
Worst Case $0.42 (-45.0%)
Volatility +33.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win +$0.27
Avg Loss -$0.16
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.42 (-45.0%)
Std Dev $0.25
Avg Norm Float 0.1967
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 125h 24m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 20S //TOTAL COST $0.76 //ASK PRICE EV $0.89 //BID PRICE EV $0.81 //ASK PROFIT $0.13 (+17.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.05 (+7.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 68.3% //BEST CASE $1.36 //VOLATILITY +33.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
11.7%
$1.36
+$0.60
+78.4%
$1.15
+$0.39
+51.3%
$0.21
15.2%
—
WIN
11.7%
$1.02
+$0.26
+34.7%
$1.00
+$0.24
+31.6%
$0.02
2.3%
—
WIN
10.0%
$1.01
+$0.25
+33.0%
$0.99
+$0.23
+30.3%
$0.02
2.0%
—
WIN
11.7%
$1.01
+$0.24
+32.2%
$0.89
+$0.13
+17.1%
$0.11
11.4%
—
WIN
11.7%
$0.95
+$0.19
+25.5%
$0.82
+$0.06
+7.9%
$0.13
14.0%
—
PAPER WIN
11.7%
$0.81
+$0.05
+7.0%
$0.74
-$0.02
-2.6%
$0.07
9.0%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$0.73
-$0.03
-3.8%
$0.70
-$0.06
-7.9%
$0.03
4.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.61
-$0.15
-19.3%
$0.58
-$0.18
-23.7%
$0.03
5.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.42
-$0.34
-45.0%
$0.38
-$0.38
-50.0%
$0.04
9.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.09871565026,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 1.005,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:27.049249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.14807337705999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.09833,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.731,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:40.091202Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.11799599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.8135,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:37.266179Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.147495,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.024,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:52.402319Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.13342024046,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9534999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:37.514930Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11799599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 0.418,
"optimistic_value": 0.39,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:03.666934Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0157328,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0105,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:09:22.570981Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11799599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 0.6134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.61,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:22:35.016965Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1e93774d673462e076c51a30",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "511864941882124293",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:01:12.912646Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "512989991912631707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:45.839452Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "500605942755441071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:45.839452Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "525375740885754187",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:58.085154Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503982792732398611",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:03:56.667693Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "517494441497828410",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:58.085154Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "630083017733692770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:14:51.753065Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "518619491401898812",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:06:34.306827Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "510739041954330970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:43.584481Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176009775",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:43.584481Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 10.0% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.13 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.80 Shredded 11.7% $1.79 Teardown 10.0% $1.65 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 | $7.22 +348.3% | $2.04 +26.9% | 55.0% | +103.3% | $1.61 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 13.3% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.12 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.80 Shredded 10.0% $1.78 Teardown 13.3% $1.65 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 | $7.22 +327.1% | $2.22 +31.4% | 43.3% | +110.5% | $1.69 | — |
The Lake Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 20.0% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.12 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.80 Shredded 6.7% $1.78 Teardown 20.0% $1.65 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.36 | $7.22 +264.5% | $2.58 +30.2% | 26.7% | +109.2% | $1.98 | — |
The Lake Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 23.3% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 5.0% $2.12 Rose Hex 5.0% $1.80 Shredded 5.0% $1.78 Teardown 23.3% $1.65 Coral Bloom 5.0% $1.36 | $7.22 +212.4% | $2.76 +19.3% | 23.3% | +98.2% | $2.31 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint  30.0% $6.84 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $5.54 Cobalt Quartz  10.0% $0.61 | $15.94 +127.1% | $8.56 +21.9% | 30.0% | +73.0% | $7.02 | — |