The Fracture Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Runic
2x $0.14
Ol' Rusty
3x $0.28
Ultralight
1x $0.29
Fraise Crane
1x $0.47
Sky Mandala
2x $0.60
Warm Blooded
1x $1.05
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
20.0% $13.94
Sleeping Potion
20.0% $11.82
Allure
12.0% $0.74
Connexion
12.0% $0.72
Monster Call
12.0% $0.71
Brother
12.0% $0.71
Max Win
$13.94 (+231.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.58 (+32.8%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+142.8%
Cost
$4.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.20
Ask Price EV $5.58 (+32.8%)
Bid Price EV $4.75 (+13.1%)
Ask Profit $1.38 (+32.8%)
Bid Profit $0.55 (+13.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.83 (+19.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.38
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.55
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $13.94 (+231.8%)
Worst Case $0.67 (-84.0%)
Volatility +142.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$8.68
Avg Loss -$3.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.67 (-84.0%)
Std Dev $6.00
Avg Norm Float 0.2132
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 56h 11m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 20S //TOTAL COST $4.20 //ASK PRICE EV $5.58 //BID PRICE EV $4.75 //ASK PROFIT $1.38 (+32.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.55 (+13.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $13.94 //VOLATILITY +142.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$13.94
+$9.74
+231.8%
$12.05
+$7.85
+186.9%
$1.89
13.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$11.82
+$7.62
+181.5%
$9.69
+$5.49
+130.7%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.74
-$3.46
-82.5%
$0.69
-$3.51
-83.6%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.72
-$3.48
-82.8%
$0.64
-$3.56
-84.8%
$0.08
11.5%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.71
-$3.49
-83.0%
$0.71
-$3.49
-83.1%
$0.00
0.5%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.71
-$3.49
-83.2%
$0.66
-$3.54
-84.3%
$0.05
6.6%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.67
-$3.53
-84.0%
$0.64
-$3.56
-84.8%
$0.03
4.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.149205,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.936499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.87,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:04.320686Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.149205,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.17052,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.7234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:38:14.110781Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.21315,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.737,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:35:31.747771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.21315,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:54.531931Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.17052,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:51:06.814488Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.21315,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.707,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:21.543047Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1e839b10b394ec6c28f3a73c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "507361289453917813",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:43:38.963777Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:43:38.963777Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "503983589619445987",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:32.011709Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "524249735516767095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:43:07.153742Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "502857637417909900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:32.011709Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "508487189338851806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:32.011709Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "529879287551741328",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:13.077204Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "493850438107199332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:28.993188Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "526501587737763809",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:28.993188Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494975741590866474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:23.080348Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Allure 12.0% $1.64 Monster Call 12.0% $1.59 Brother 12.0% $1.54 Connexion 12.0% $1.33 | $26.79 +153.9% | $11.16 +5.7% | 40.0% | +107.9% | $10.55 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Connexion 10.0% $0.73 Monster Call 10.0% $0.73 Brother 10.0% $0.71 | $13.99 +171.2% | $6.81 +32.0% | 50.0% | +113.0% | $5.16 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Connexion 8.0% $0.73 Monster Call 8.0% $0.73 Brother 8.0% $0.71 | $13.99 +124.6% | $8.03 +28.9% | 60.0% | +90.9% | $6.23 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Allure 16.0% $0.74 Connexion 16.0% $0.72 Monster Call 16.0% $0.71 Brother 16.0% $0.71 | $13.94 +434.0% | $3.14 +20.5% | 20.0% | +183.5% | $2.61 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Allure 6.0% $1.64 Monster Call 6.0% $1.59 Brother 6.0% $1.54 Connexion 6.0% $1.33 | $26.79 +63.3% | $18.43 +12.4% | 70.0% | +62.9% | $16.40 | — |