The Fracture Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Ultralight
2x $0.53
Ol' Rusty
2x $0.85
Runic
2x $1.62
Warm Blooded
4x $2.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
20.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
20.0% $24.63
Brother
12.0% $11.42
Allure
12.0% $8.88
Monster Call
12.0% $8.24
Connexion
12.0% $7.01
Max Win
$26.79 (+56.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.22 (-11.0%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+51.1%
Cost
$17.09
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $17.09
Ask Price EV $15.22 (-11.0%)
Bid Price EV $14.55 (-14.8%)
Ask Profit $-1.87 (-11.0%)
Bid Profit $-2.54 (-14.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.66 (+3.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.87
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.54
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+56.7%)
Worst Case $5.56 (-67.5%)
Volatility +51.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$8.62
Avg Loss -$8.87
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.56 (-67.5%)
Std Dev $8.73
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 27h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.32 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 43S //TOTAL COST $17.09 //ASK PRICE EV $15.22 //BID PRICE EV $14.55 //ASK PROFIT $-1.87 (-11.0%) //BID PROFIT $-2.54 (-14.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +51.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$26.79
+$9.70
+56.7%
$26.08
+$8.99
+52.6%
$0.71
2.6%
—
WIN
20.0%
$24.63
+$7.54
+44.1%
$22.28
+$5.19
+30.4%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$11.42
-$5.67
-33.2%
$11.24
-$5.85
-34.2%
$0.18
1.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$8.88
-$8.21
-48.0%
$8.83
-$8.26
-48.3%
$0.05
0.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$8.24
-$8.85
-51.8%
$8.13
-$8.96
-52.4%
$0.11
1.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$7.01
-$10.08
-59.0%
$6.99
-$10.10
-59.1%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$5.56
-$11.53
-67.5%
$5.49
-$11.60
-67.9%
$0.07
1.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:22.411318Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.055968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 7.0135,
"optimistic_value": 7.01,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 6.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:37.648576Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 8.8805,
"optimistic_value": 8.87,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 8.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:25.809135Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 8.243500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 8.24,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 8.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:58:53.202346Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.055968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 5.557,
"optimistic_value": 5.55,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 5.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:26:25.691387Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.424,
"optimistic_value": 11.41,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 11.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:22.880428Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1e839b10b394ec6c28f3a73c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "661608215076176884",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:50.249746Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "520872088107240384",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:17.369584Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "643593816554451037",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:17.369584Z"
},
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "507360492281933533",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:25.822526Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "509613089304458811",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:22.618920Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "492724590627111633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:22.618920Z"
},
{
"price": 2.32,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109437005132500",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605724248646447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Allure 12.0% $1.71 Monster Call 12.0% $1.59 Brother 12.0% $1.54 Connexion 12.0% $1.31 | $26.79 +147.8% | $11.17 +3.3% | 40.0% | +105.3% | $10.81 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.81 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Allure 16.0% $0.74 Brother 16.0% $0.72 Monster Call 16.0% $0.71 Connexion 16.0% $0.70 | $13.81 +473.0% | $3.13 +29.9% | 20.0% | +197.6% | $2.41 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Monster Call 6.0% $0.73 Brother 6.0% $0.71 Connexion 6.0% $0.70 | $13.99 +88.6% | $9.25 +24.7% | 70.0% | +70.9% | $7.42 | — |