The Fracture Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Ultralight
1x $0.26
Mainframe 001
2x $0.27
Ol' Rusty
3x $0.30
Earth Mandala
4x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
20.0% $13.81
Sleeping Potion
20.0% $11.82
Allure
12.0% $1.63
Monster Call
12.0% $1.54
Brother
12.0% $1.54
Connexion
12.0% $1.28
Max Win
$13.81 (+134.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.00 (+1.8%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+95.2%
Cost
$5.89
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $5.89
Ask Price EV $6.00 (+1.8%)
Bid Price EV $5.18 (-12.0%)
Ask Profit $0.11 (+1.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.71 (-12.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.81 (+13.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.11
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.71
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $13.81 (+134.5%)
Worst Case $1.25 (-78.8%)
Volatility +95.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$6.93
Avg Loss -$4.44
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.25 (-78.8%)
Std Dev $5.61
Avg Norm Float 0.1497
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 57h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.15 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 14S //TOTAL COST $5.89 //ASK PRICE EV $6.00 //BID PRICE EV $5.18 //ASK PROFIT $0.11 (+1.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.71 (-12.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $13.81 //VOLATILITY +95.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$13.81
+$7.92
+134.5%
$12.05
+$6.16
+104.6%
$1.76
12.7%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$11.82
+$5.93
+100.7%
$9.69
+$3.80
+64.5%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.63
-$4.26
-72.3%
$1.54
-$4.35
-73.9%
$0.09
5.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.54
-$4.35
-73.8%
$1.52
-$4.37
-74.2%
$0.02
1.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.54
-$4.35
-73.9%
$1.53
-$4.36
-74.0%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.28
-$4.61
-78.2%
$1.23
-$4.66
-79.1%
$0.05
4.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.25
-$4.64
-78.8%
$1.12
-$4.77
-81.0%
$0.13
10.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.104804,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.810500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 13.8,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.272042Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.104804,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.119776,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 1.2835,
"optimistic_value": 1.28,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:58:59.186271Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 1.629,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:00.136715Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 1.541,
"optimistic_value": 1.52,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:57:05.103018Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.119776,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 1.251,
"optimistic_value": 1.23,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:33.097992Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 1.54,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 1.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:43.940385Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1e839b10b394ec6c28f3a73c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "514116688950825942",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:50.249746Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "524249787962453919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:52.604763Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "497228190142349057",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:58.558742Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "508487189338851806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:58.558742Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "661608215057506024",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:58.558742Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "511864836540298521",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:52.604763Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "525375688037775643",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:14.471573Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "501731789731159313",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:59.276621Z"
},
{
"price": 1.15,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "526501587738328109",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:59.276621Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "502857689862550924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:59.276621Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.81 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Allure 16.0% $0.74 Brother 16.0% $0.72 Monster Call 16.0% $0.71 Connexion 16.0% $0.70 | $13.81 +473.0% | $3.13 +29.9% | 20.0% | +197.6% | $2.41 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Monster Call 6.0% $0.73 Brother 6.0% $0.71 Connexion 6.0% $0.70 | $13.99 +88.6% | $9.25 +24.7% | 70.0% | +70.9% | $7.42 | — |