The Inferno Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Gunsmoke
2x $3.49
Robin's Egg
2x $0.14
Naval Shred Camo
1x $0.17
Rose Nacre
1x $0.17
Electric Blue
3x $0.20
Sour Grapes
1x $0.30
↓
Possible Outputs
Brass
10.0% $40.55
Anodized Navy
10.0% $35.31
Yeti Camo
16.0% $1.88
Cobalt Paisley
16.0% $1.12
Royal Baroque
16.0% $1.10
Mint Fan
16.0% $1.09
Max Win
$40.55 (+361.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.59 (-2.3%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+167.5%
Cost
$8.79
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.79
Ask Price EV $8.59 (-2.3%)
Bid Price EV $7.14 (-18.8%)
Ask Profit $-0.20 (-2.3%)
Bid Profit $-1.65 (-18.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.45 (+16.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.20
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.65
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $40.55 (+361.4%)
Worst Case $1.07 (-87.8%)
Volatility +167.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$29.14
Avg Loss -$7.54
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.07 (-87.8%)
Std Dev $14.72
Avg Norm Float 0.1499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 144h 48m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$3.49 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$3.68 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 30M 44S //TOTAL COST $8.79 //ASK PRICE EV $8.59 //BID PRICE EV $7.14 //ASK PROFIT $-0.20 (-2.3%) //BID PROFIT $-1.65 (-18.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $40.55 //VOLATILITY +167.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$40.55
+$31.76
+361.4%
$28.61
+$19.82
+225.5%
$11.94
29.5%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$35.31
+$26.52
+301.7%
$33.55
+$24.76
+281.7%
$1.76
5.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.88
-$6.91
-78.6%
$1.81
-$6.98
-79.4%
$0.07
3.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.12
-$7.67
-87.2%
$1.04
-$7.75
-88.2%
$0.08
7.5%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.10
-$7.69
-87.5%
$1.01
-$7.78
-88.5%
$0.09
8.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.09
-$7.70
-87.6%
$0.94
-$7.85
-89.3%
$0.15
14.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.07
-$7.72
-87.8%
$0.95
-$7.84
-89.2%
$0.12
11.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.089958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 1.0935000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.09,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 0.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:36.708825Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.104951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.8805,
"optimistic_value": 1.87,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:55.131294Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.09745450000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.1245,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:38.587190Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.089958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 1.1015,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:01.986600Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.089958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 1.072,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 0.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:45.075346Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0119944,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc4aeda27ca",
"realistic_value": 35.3115,
"optimistic_value": 35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 33.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:08.805854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc4aeda27ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62fc4feb5c7c",
"realistic_value": 40.553,
"optimistic_value": 38.32,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brass",
"conservative_value": 28.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:59:52.450752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62fc4feb5c7c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1de1fd09ba93e662d961fb5f",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.49,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "517494222854307622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:25.620427Z"
},
{
"price": 3.68,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "639086339885251905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:25.620427Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "502857637417906948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:41:40.147471Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "525375635593436155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:41:40.147471Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "491597893797568694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:43:02.836838Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "516368488724892626",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:14.180251Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:13.800376Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "654852743754232591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:13.800376Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "794463791558467223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:13.800376Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "502857689861463832",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:08.869249Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 10.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 10.0% $35.31 Yeti Camo 16.0% $4.46 Mint Fan 16.0% $3.37 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $2.65 Royal Baroque 16.0% $2.64 | $181.74 +899.7% | $24.15 +32.9% | 20.0% | +289.8% | $18.18 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 5.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 5.0% $35.31 Yeti Camo 18.0% $4.46 Mint Fan 18.0% $3.36 Cobalt Paisley 18.0% $2.66 Royal Baroque 18.0% $2.64 | $181.74 +1505.5% | $13.61 +20.2% | 10.0% | +343.8% | $11.32 | — |