The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Fragment
2x $0.66
Bock Blocks
1x $1.53
RMX
1x $2.30
Late Night Transit
3x $1.51
2A2F
2x $2.71
Green Line
1x $3.06
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
20.0% $64.86
Derailment
20.0% $41.30
Charged Up
20.0% $22.18
Electrum
8.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
8.0% $5.02
Galigator
8.0% $3.34
Max Win
$64.86 (+190.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$27.40 (+22.7%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+103.9%
Cost
$22.33
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $22.33
Ask Price EV $27.40 (+22.7%)
Bid Price EV $26.31 (+17.8%)
Ask Profit $5.07 (+22.7%)
Bid Profit $3.98 (+17.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.09 (+4.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$5.07
Bid Slippage Buffer +$3.98
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $64.86 (+190.5%)
Worst Case $3.12 (-86.0%)
Volatility +103.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$30.75
Avg Loss -$12.05
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.12 (-86.0%)
Std Dev $23.21
Avg Norm Float 0.0957
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 155h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.54 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Field-Tested
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.71 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.82 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.96 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.06 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$3.24 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 43S //TOTAL COST $22.33 //ASK PRICE EV $27.40 //BID PRICE EV $26.31 //ASK PROFIT $5.07 (+22.7%) //BID PROFIT $3.98 (+17.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +103.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$64.86
+$42.53
+190.5%
$61.61
+$39.28
+175.9%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$41.30
+$18.97
+84.9%
$40.17
+$17.84
+79.9%
$1.13
2.7%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$22.18
-$0.15
-0.7%
$22.01
-$0.32
-1.4%
$0.17
0.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$7.00
-$15.33
-68.7%
$5.93
-$16.40
-73.4%
$1.07
15.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$5.02
-$17.31
-77.5%
$3.97
-$18.36
-82.2%
$1.05
20.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.34
-$18.99
-85.0%
$3.25
-$19.08
-85.4%
$0.09
2.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.17
-$19.16
-85.8%
$3.14
-$19.19
-85.9%
$0.03
1.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.12
-$19.21
-86.0%
$3.10
-$19.23
-86.1%
$0.02
0.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.066962,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 41.298,
"optimistic_value": 41.2,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 40.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:41.369938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.14992039999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.09566,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 22.1775,
"optimistic_value": 22.02,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 22.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:37.155124Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09566,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09566,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.344,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:25.658034Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09566,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09566,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.1735,
"optimistic_value": 3.17,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:52.869026Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09566,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.12,
"optimistic_value": 3.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:52.739380Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1c7fa9f1edfcf2772023829d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "491598743580519002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983642533926539",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:04.678761Z"
},
{
"price": 1.54,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "503983642533910159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:50.065948Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "511864941882379353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:11.083889Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "510739041955372162",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:59.441859Z"
},
{
"price": 2.71,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "493850543431680520",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:30.660799Z"
},
{
"price": 2.82,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "526501640651562881",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:17.675574Z"
},
{
"price": 2.96,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "503983642533458575",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:17.675574Z"
},
{
"price": 3.06,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "525375740886632299",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:31.179871Z"
},
{
"price": 3.24,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "519746241189407696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:30.660799Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:4+collection-set-train-2025:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Charged Up 20.0% $63.69 Derailment 20.0% $41.30 Electrum 8.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 8.0% $12.97 Galigator 8.0% $11.06 | $64.86 +111.1% | $39.07 +27.1% | 60.0% | +65.3% | $30.73 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.38 Derailment 20.0% $6.31 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +115.4% | $5.68 +26.5% | 60.0% | +53.1% | $4.49 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.67 Charged Up 10.0% $7.43 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +207.0% | $4.20 +33.4% | 44.0% | +76.0% | $3.15 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.43 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +140.5% | $5.31 +32.1% | 60.0% | +62.1% | $4.02 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Charged Up 13.3% $63.69 Derailment 13.3% $41.33 Electrum 12.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 12.0% $12.97 Galigator 12.0% $11.06 | $64.86 +179.8% | $30.30 +30.7% | 40.0% | +88.3% | $23.18 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Charged Up 6.7% $63.69 Derailment 6.7% $41.07 Electrum 16.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 16.0% $12.97 Galigator 16.0% $11.06 | $64.86 +284.3% | $21.51 +27.4% | 36.0% | +102.5% | $16.88 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $41.07 Charged Up 26.7% $22.18 Electrum 4.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 4.0% $5.02 Galigator 4.0% $3.30 | $64.86 +129.2% | $35.03 +23.8% | 53.3% | +70.6% | $28.30 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.67 Charged Up 23.3% $7.43 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +86.0% | $6.42 +23.4% | 70.0% | +43.0% | $5.20 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Charged Up 3.3% $63.69 Derailment 3.3% $41.07 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.06 | $64.86 +353.0% | $17.13 +19.6% | 28.0% | +93.2% | $14.32 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  10.0% $663.30 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $200.36 Fully Tuned  45.0% $183.83 | $663.30 +251.7% | $239.22 +26.8% | 55.0% | +75.1% | $188.62 | — |