The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Fragment
1x $1.54
RMX
1x $2.30
Zubastick
2x $3.19
Late Night Transit
2x $2.82
Green Line
1x $3.11
Run Run Run
1x $3.45
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
20.0% $64.86
Charged Up
20.0% $63.69
Derailment
20.0% $41.30
Electrum
8.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
8.0% $12.97
Galigator
8.0% $11.06
Max Win
$64.86 (+111.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$39.07 (+27.1%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+75.4%
Cost
$30.73
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $30.73
Ask Price EV $39.07 (+27.1%)
Bid Price EV $36.83 (+19.9%)
Ask Profit $8.34 (+27.1%)
Bid Profit $6.10 (+19.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.24 (+7.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$8.34
Bid Slippage Buffer +$6.10
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $64.86 (+111.1%)
Worst Case $10.00 (-67.5%)
Volatility +75.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$25.89
Avg Loss -$17.98
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.00 (-67.5%)
Std Dev $23.18
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 155h 39m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.54 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Factory New
$3.19 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Factory New
$3.52 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.82 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.96 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$3.45 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$3.65 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$4.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 04S //TOTAL COST $30.73 //ASK PRICE EV $39.07 //BID PRICE EV $36.83 //ASK PROFIT $8.34 (+27.1%) //BID PROFIT $6.10 (+19.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +75.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$64.86
+$34.13
+111.1%
$61.61
+$30.88
+100.5%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$63.69
+$32.96
+107.3%
$58.44
+$27.71
+90.2%
$5.25
8.2%
—
WIN
20.0%
$41.30
+$10.57
+34.4%
$40.17
+$9.44
+30.7%
$1.13
2.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$19.50
-$11.23
-36.6%
$17.32
-$13.41
-43.6%
$2.18
11.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$12.97
-$17.76
-57.8%
$11.57
-$19.16
-62.3%
$1.40
10.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$11.06
-$19.67
-64.0%
$10.78
-$19.95
-64.9%
$0.28
2.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$10.23
-$20.50
-66.7%
$10.21
-$20.52
-66.8%
$0.02
0.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$10.00
-$20.73
-67.5%
$9.98
-$20.75
-67.5%
$0.02
0.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.048943999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 41.298,
"optimistic_value": 41.2,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 40.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:41.369938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.12572479999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 63.693,
"optimistic_value": 62.72,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 58.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:25.585598Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.0575,
"optimistic_value": 11.04,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:28.095828Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.233500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:28.053348Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 10,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:48.980504Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1c7fa9f1edfcf2772023829d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.54,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "503983642533910159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:50.065948Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "511864941882379353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:11.083889Z"
},
{
"price": 3.19,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "507361237007874985",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.925379Z"
},
{
"price": 3.52,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "527627435179328624",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.925379Z"
},
{
"price": 2.82,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "526501640651562881",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:17.675574Z"
},
{
"price": 2.96,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "503983642533458575",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:17.675574Z"
},
{
"price": 3.11,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "501731842661855561",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:31.179871Z"
},
{
"price": 3.45,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "501731842662705917",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:14.915840Z"
},
{
"price": 3.65,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "496102343227059911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:30.660799Z"
},
{
"price": 4.19,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "642467916639686441",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:30.660799Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:4+collection-set-train-2025:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.38 Derailment 20.0% $6.31 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +115.4% | $5.68 +26.5% | 60.0% | +53.1% | $4.49 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $41.30 Charged Up 20.0% $22.18 Electrum 8.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 8.0% $5.02 Galigator 8.0% $3.34 | $64.86 +190.5% | $27.40 +22.7% | 40.0% | +94.4% | $22.33 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.67 Charged Up 10.0% $7.43 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +207.0% | $4.20 +33.4% | 44.0% | +76.0% | $3.15 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.43 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +140.5% | $5.31 +32.1% | 60.0% | +62.1% | $4.02 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Charged Up 13.3% $63.69 Derailment 13.3% $41.33 Electrum 12.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 12.0% $12.97 Galigator 12.0% $11.06 | $64.86 +179.8% | $30.30 +30.7% | 40.0% | +88.3% | $23.18 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Charged Up 6.7% $63.69 Derailment 6.7% $41.07 Electrum 16.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 16.0% $12.97 Galigator 16.0% $11.06 | $64.86 +284.3% | $21.51 +27.4% | 36.0% | +102.5% | $16.88 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $41.07 Charged Up 26.7% $22.18 Electrum 4.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 4.0% $5.02 Galigator 4.0% $3.30 | $64.86 +129.2% | $35.03 +23.8% | 53.3% | +70.6% | $28.30 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.67 Charged Up 23.3% $7.43 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +86.0% | $6.42 +23.4% | 70.0% | +43.0% | $5.20 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Charged Up 3.3% $63.69 Derailment 3.3% $41.07 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.06 | $64.86 +353.0% | $17.13 +19.6% | 28.0% | +93.2% | $14.32 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  10.0% $663.30 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $200.36 Fully Tuned  45.0% $183.83 | $663.30 +251.7% | $239.22 +26.8% | 55.0% | +75.1% | $188.62 | — |