The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Dark Polymer
2x $0.21
Fragment
2x $0.23
2A2F
4x $0.43
Green Line
2x $0.57
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
20.0% $9.68
Charged Up
20.0% $7.43
Derailment
20.0% $7.13
Electrum
8.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
8.0% $2.79
Galigator
8.0% $2.19
Max Win
$9.68 (+112.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.86 (+28.4%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+64.0%
Cost
$4.56
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.56
Ask Price EV $5.86 (+28.4%)
Bid Price EV $5.55 (+21.6%)
Ask Profit $1.30 (+28.4%)
Bid Profit $0.99 (+21.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.31 (+6.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.30
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.99
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $9.68 (+112.4%)
Worst Case $1.76 (-61.5%)
Volatility +64.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$3.52
Avg Loss -$2.04
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.76 (-61.5%)
Std Dev $2.92
Avg Norm Float 0.3329
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 154h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
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Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Field-Tested
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Field-Tested
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 52M 46S //TOTAL COST $4.56 //ASK PRICE EV $5.86 //BID PRICE EV $5.55 //ASK PROFIT $1.30 (+28.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.99 (+21.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $9.68 //VOLATILITY +64.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$9.68
+$5.12
+112.4%
$9.66
+$5.10
+111.8%
$0.02
0.2%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$7.43
+$2.87
+62.9%
$7.29
+$2.73
+59.9%
$0.14
1.9%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$7.13
+$2.57
+56.3%
$6.40
+$1.84
+40.4%
$0.73
10.2%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$4.11
-$0.45
-9.8%
$3.61
-$0.95
-20.8%
$0.50
12.2%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$2.79
-$1.77
-38.9%
$2.32
-$2.24
-49.1%
$0.47
16.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.19
-$2.37
-52.0%
$1.74
-$2.82
-61.8%
$0.45
20.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.76
-$2.80
-61.3%
$1.64
-$2.92
-64.0%
$0.12
7.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.76
-$2.80
-61.5%
$1.63
-$2.93
-64.3%
$0.13
7.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.23304399999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.37294479999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 9.6835,
"optimistic_value": 9.68,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 9.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:43:09.536092Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.33292,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 7.43,
"optimistic_value": 7.43,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 7.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:29.688274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.33292,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.33292,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.33292,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.33292,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7635,
"optimistic_value": 1.76,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:59:48.032078Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.33292,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.757,
"optimistic_value": 1.75,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:31.318879Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1c7fa9f1edfcf2772023829d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "515242641502327381",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:59:56.853071Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "494976443342737050",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:14.306793Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "508487242223004842",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:14.306793Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "493850490550061884",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:59:56.853071Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "505109542380591776",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:26.649580Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "502857689862614932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:26.649580Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "507361342334883589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:32.497531Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "527627540537740676",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:32.497531Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "529879340432508096",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:38.227017Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "517494441497798638",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:38.227017Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:4+collection-set-train-2025:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Charged Up 20.0% $63.69 Derailment 20.0% $41.07 Electrum 8.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 8.0% $12.97 Galigator 8.0% $11.03 | $64.86 +108.2% | $39.02 +25.3% | 60.0% | +64.5% | $31.15 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $41.07 Charged Up 20.0% $22.60 Electrum 8.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 8.0% $5.02 Galigator 8.0% $3.30 | $64.86 +190.9% | $27.43 +23.0% | 60.0% | +94.3% | $22.30 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Charged Up 20.0% $5.48 Whiteout 20.0% $5.19 Electrum 8.0% $3.09 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.02 Galigator 8.0% $1.98 | $7.13 +76.5% | $4.35 +7.6% | 60.0% | +42.6% | $4.04 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.43 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +169.4% | $4.74 +31.9% | 52.0% | +69.7% | $3.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.43 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +138.8% | $5.29 +30.7% | 60.0% | +61.7% | $4.05 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 6.7% $9.68 Charged Up 6.7% $7.43 Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 | $9.68 +242.2% | $3.62 +28.0% | 36.0% | +76.7% | $2.83 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.67 Charged Up 23.3% $7.43 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +85.2% | $6.41 +22.7% | 70.0% | +42.9% | $5.22 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Charged Up 3.3% $63.69 Derailment 3.3% $41.07 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.03 | $64.86 +352.6% | $17.12 +19.4% | 28.0% | +93.2% | $14.33 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $41.07 Charged Up 26.7% $22.18 Electrum 4.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 4.0% $5.02 Galigator 4.0% $3.30 | $64.86 +118.2% | $35.03 +17.9% | 53.3% | +67.2% | $29.72 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  10.0% $663.30 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $200.36 Fully Tuned  45.0% $183.83 | $663.30 +242.9% | $239.22 +23.7% | 55.0% | +73.2% | $193.46 | — |