The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Scrawl
2x $0.47
Necro Jr.
1x $1.54
Ensnared
1x $1.85
Run Run Run
2x $2.27
2A2F
1x $2.69
Late Night Transit
2x $2.83
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
20.0% $64.86
Derailment
20.0% $42.56
Charged Up
20.0% $22.79
Night Terror
8.0% $4.00
Space Cat
8.0% $3.22
Zombie Offensive
8.0% $2.67
Max Win
$64.86 (+187.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$27.10 (+20.1%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+106.4%
Cost
$22.56
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $22.56
Ask Price EV $27.10 (+20.1%)
Bid Price EV $25.69 (+13.9%)
Ask Profit $4.54 (+20.1%)
Bid Profit $3.13 (+13.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.41 (+6.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.54
Bid Slippage Buffer +$3.13
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $64.86 (+187.5%)
Worst Case $1.64 (-92.7%)
Volatility +106.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$20.84
Avg Loss -$19.93
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.64 (-92.7%)
Std Dev $24.01
Avg Norm Float 0.0957
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 149h 53m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$1.54 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Factory New
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Factory New
$1.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.69 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.83 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.87 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$3.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 16S //TOTAL COST $22.56 //ASK PRICE EV $27.10 //BID PRICE EV $25.69 //ASK PROFIT $4.54 (+20.1%) //BID PROFIT $3.13 (+13.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +106.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$64.86
+$42.30
+187.5%
$61.61
+$39.05
+173.1%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$42.56
+$20.00
+88.7%
$40.17
+$17.61
+78.1%
$2.39
5.6%
—
PAPER WIN
20.0%
$22.79
+$0.23
+1.0%
$21.50
-$1.06
-4.7%
$1.29
5.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.00
-$18.56
-82.3%
$3.98
-$18.58
-82.4%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.22
-$19.34
-85.7%
$3.19
-$19.37
-85.9%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.67
-$19.89
-88.1%
$2.67
-$19.89
-88.2%
$0.00
0.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.64
-$20.92
-92.7%
$1.45
-$21.11
-93.6%
$0.19
11.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.64
-$20.92
-92.7%
$1.62
-$20.94
-92.8%
$0.02
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.066976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 42.5615,
"optimistic_value": 42.32,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 40.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:42.474955Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.1499392,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.09568,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 22.7875,
"optimistic_value": 22.77,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 21.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:43.119528Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09568,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.6369999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.63,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:23:06.525413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.066976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:45.318729Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0641056,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:17.454652Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0727168,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 1.6404999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.63,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 1.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:31:05.917942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04784,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.6735,
"optimistic_value": 2.67,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:48.897613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1c0dce2914cd4d8a2f25fcd7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "496102290329673671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:42.451764Z"
},
{
"price": 1.54,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "526501640650592789",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:35.318000Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "500605889841761303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:33.570400Z"
},
{
"price": 1.85,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "512990841908066579",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:27.402639Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "514116741797213934",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:48.990202Z"
},
{
"price": 2.69,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "523123940968972186",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:00.073440Z"
},
{
"price": 2.83,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "519746241188631932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:08.136931Z"
},
{
"price": 2.87,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "514116741796799430",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:08.136931Z"
},
{
"price": 3.11,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "512990841907798343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:34.613138Z"
},
{
"price": 3.18,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "527627540537458508",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:48.990202Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-train-2025:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.46 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.97 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $0.96 | $9.67 +130.9% | $5.23 +24.7% | 60.0% | +75.5% | $4.19 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Charged Up 20.0% $63.69 Derailment 20.0% $42.56 Dream Glade 8.0% $8.61 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $4.90 Night Terror 8.0% $4.00 | $64.86 +117.0% | $36.10 +20.8% | 60.0% | +78.2% | $29.89 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.44 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Night Terror 10.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $0.94 | $9.67 +179.6% | $4.50 +30.1% | 50.0% | +95.0% | $3.46 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.44 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Night Terror 12.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $0.94 | $9.67 +225.7% | $3.79 +27.5% | 40.0% | +110.4% | $2.97 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.67 Charged Up 23.3% $7.53 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $0.96 Dream Glade 6.0% $0.90 | $9.67 +96.2% | $5.95 +20.7% | 70.0% | +59.6% | $4.93 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $42.56 Charged Up 26.7% $22.79 Night Terror 4.0% $4.00 Space Cat 4.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $2.67 | $64.86 +118.4% | $35.25 +18.7% | 53.3% | +68.3% | $29.70 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.67 Charged Up 10.0% $7.53 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Night Terror 14.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $0.96 Dream Glade 14.0% $0.90 | $9.67 +266.4% | $3.07 +16.4% | 30.0% | +119.0% | $2.64 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Derailment 6.7% $14.73 Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Charged Up 6.7% $7.46 Night Terror 16.0% $1.40 Space Cat 16.0% $1.21 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $1.01 | $14.73 +441.7% | $3.00 +10.3% | 20.0% | +142.5% | $2.72 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement  16.7% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition  16.7% $34.92 Melondrama  16.7% $33.53 | $597.10 +226.9% | $240.86 +31.9% | 50.0% | +126.6% | $182.64 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Nightwish  40.0% $117.09 Starlight Protector  40.0% $112.74 | $663.30 +287.7% | $224.59 +31.3% | 20.0% | +128.2% | $171.07 | — |