The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Necro Jr.
1x $0.14
Ensnared
2x $0.15
Scrawl
1x $0.18
Late Night Transit
2x $0.50
Green Line
3x $0.58
Run Run Run
1x $0.72
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
20.0% $9.68
Charged Up
20.0% $7.55
Derailment
20.0% $7.13
Night Terror
8.0% $1.00
Zombie Offensive
8.0% $0.96
Dream Glade
8.0% $0.90
Max Win
$9.68 (+132.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.24 (+25.6%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+87.1%
Cost
$4.17
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.17
Ask Price EV $5.24 (+25.6%)
Bid Price EV $5.01 (+20.1%)
Ask Profit $1.07 (+25.6%)
Bid Profit $0.84 (+20.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.23 (+5.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.07
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.84
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $9.68 (+132.1%)
Worst Case $0.85 (-79.6%)
Volatility +87.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.95
Avg Loss -$3.25
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.85 (-79.6%)
Std Dev $3.63
Avg Norm Float 0.3390
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 148h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.62 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Field-Tested
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 34S //TOTAL COST $4.17 //ASK PRICE EV $5.24 //BID PRICE EV $5.01 //ASK PROFIT $1.07 (+25.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.84 (+20.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $9.68 //VOLATILITY +87.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$9.68
+$5.51
+132.1%
$9.66
+$5.49
+131.7%
$0.02
0.2%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$7.55
+$3.38
+81.0%
$7.29
+$3.12
+74.8%
$0.26
3.4%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$7.13
+$2.96
+71.0%
$6.40
+$2.23
+53.5%
$0.73
10.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.00
-$3.17
-76.1%
$0.87
-$3.30
-79.1%
$0.13
12.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.96
-$3.21
-77.0%
$0.81
-$3.36
-80.6%
$0.15
15.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.90
-$3.27
-78.3%
$0.87
-$3.30
-79.1%
$0.03
3.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.86
-$3.31
-79.3%
$0.85
-$3.32
-79.6%
$0.01
1.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.85
-$3.32
-79.6%
$0.82
-$3.35
-80.3%
$0.03
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.237293,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.3786506,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 9.677,
"optimistic_value": 9.67,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 9.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:14.850350Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.33899,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 7.547999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 7.52,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 7.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:51.132453Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.33899,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.9045,
"optimistic_value": 0.88,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:47.458800Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.237293,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 0.997,
"optimistic_value": 0.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:35.810766Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.22712330000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 0.8505,
"optimistic_value": 0.84,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:34:35.140744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.25763240000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 0.8634999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.86,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:32:21.425132Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.169495,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 0.9604999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:26:44.444767Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1c0dce2914cd4d8a2f25fcd7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "509613142167472719",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:34:31.024938Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "529879287551817216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:35:15.993074Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "507361342333856833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:35:15.993074Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "496101493269460391",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:24:07.215937Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "523123888073168722",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:08.322796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "510739041953634622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:08.322796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "520872141037677576",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "490472790737415795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.62,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "524249840858869023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "518620288314727228",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:19.968167Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-train-2025:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Charged Up 20.0% $65.07 Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.39 Dream Glade 8.0% $8.60 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $4.90 Night Terror 8.0% $4.02 | $65.07 +113.8% | $36.74 +20.7% | 60.0% | +77.8% | $30.43 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.39 Charged Up 20.0% $22.78 Night Terror 8.0% $4.02 Space Cat 8.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $2.68 | $64.86 +180.2% | $27.46 +18.6% | 40.0% | +94.8% | $23.15 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Charged Up 20.0% $5.48 Whiteout 20.0% $5.23 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.86 | $7.13 +86.1% | $3.93 +2.5% | 60.0% | +58.5% | $3.83 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.53 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Night Terror 10.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $0.96 Dream Glade 10.0% $0.90 | $9.67 +174.0% | $4.51 +27.8% | 50.0% | +93.5% | $3.53 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.55 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Night Terror 12.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $0.96 Dream Glade 12.0% $0.90 | $9.67 +221.4% | $3.80 +26.1% | 40.0% | +109.5% | $3.01 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.68 Charged Up 23.3% $7.75 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.94 | $9.68 +95.9% | $6.01 +21.7% | 70.0% | +59.8% | $4.94 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.68 Charged Up 10.0% $7.75 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.02 Night Terror 14.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $0.95 | $9.68 +270.8% | $3.13 +19.8% | 30.0% | +120.9% | $2.61 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $44.39 Charged Up 26.7% $22.78 Night Terror 4.0% $4.02 Space Cat 4.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $2.68 | $64.86 +114.1% | $35.74 +18.0% | 53.3% | +67.4% | $30.29 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Derailment 6.7% $14.86 Whiteout 6.7% $9.68 Charged Up 6.7% $7.55 Night Terror 16.0% $1.41 Space Cat 16.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $1.02 | $14.86 +452.5% | $3.00 +11.5% | 20.0% | +145.4% | $2.69 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Nightwish  40.0% $117.09 Starlight Protector  40.0% $112.74 | $663.30 +288.6% | $224.59 +31.6% | 20.0% | +128.5% | $170.71 | — |