The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Factory New +20.8%Field-Tested +24.7%Minimal Wear +20.1%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Lifted Spirits

1x $2.36

Necro Jr.

1x $2.49

Spirit Board

2x $2.69

2A2F

2x $2.69

Green Line

3x $3.08

Run Run Run

1x $3.18

↓

Possible Outputs

Whiteout

20.0% $64.86

Charged Up

20.0% $63.69

Derailment

20.0% $42.56

Dream Glade

8.0% $8.61

Ticket to Hell

8.0% $4.90

Night Terror

8.0% $4.00

Max Win

$64.86 (+117.0%)

EV (ROI %)

$36.10 (+20.8%)

Win %

60.0%

Volatility

+89.9%

Cost

$29.89

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $29.89

Ask Price EV $36.10 (+20.8%)

Bid Price EV $33.91 (+13.4%)

Ask Profit $6.21 (+20.8%)

Bid Profit $4.02 (+13.4%)

Liquidity Gap $2.19 (+7.3%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$6.21

Bid Slippage Buffer +$4.02

Risk

Win Probability 60.0%

Loss Probability 40.0%

Best Case $64.86 (+117.0%)

Worst Case $2.67 (-91.1%)

Volatility +89.9%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$27.15

Avg Loss -$25.21

Bottom 5% Outcome $2.67 (-91.1%)

Std Dev $26.88

Avg Norm Float 0.0700

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 21m

Oldest Output Price 149h 53m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P2000 | Lifted Spirits

—

Factory New

$2.36 Float: HIDDEN

MP5-SD | Necro Jr.

—

Factory New

$2.49 Float: HIDDEN

Sawed-Off | Spirit Board

—

Factory New

$2.69 Float: HIDDEN

Sawed-Off | Spirit Board

—

Factory New

$2.72 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$2.69 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Minimal Wear

$3.08 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Minimal Wear

$3.11 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Run Run Run

—

Minimal Wear

$3.18 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Minimal Wear

$3.38 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$4.19 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 17S //TOTAL COST $29.89 //ASK PRICE EV $36.10 //BID PRICE EV $33.91 //ASK PROFIT $6.21 (+20.8%) //BID PROFIT $4.02 (+13.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +89.9% //

Possible Outputs · 8

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 42.5615,
      "optimistic_value": 42.32,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 40.17,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:42.474955Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.1257624,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 64.8635,
      "optimistic_value": 64.79,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 61.61,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.06996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 63.693,
      "optimistic_value": 62.72,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 58.44,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:32.306912Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.06996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
      "realistic_value": 8.607,
      "optimistic_value": 8.6,
      "output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
      "conservative_value": 8.54,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:21.329305Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
      "realistic_value": 4,
      "optimistic_value": 4,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
      "conservative_value": 3.98,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:45.318729Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.0468732,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
      "realistic_value": 3.22,
      "optimistic_value": 3.22,
      "output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
      "conservative_value": 3.19,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:17.454652Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.0531696,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
      "realistic_value": 4.9,
      "optimistic_value": 4.9,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
      "conservative_value": 4.89,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:22.311200Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.03498,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
      "realistic_value": 2.6735,
      "optimistic_value": 2.67,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
      "conservative_value": 2.67,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:48.897613Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_1c0dce2914cd4d8a2f25fcd7",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 2.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
      "listing_id": "523123091070407086",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:31.790335Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
      "listing_id": "497228137695537017",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:35.318000Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
      "listing_id": "519746241188600288",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
      "name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:04.122901Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.72,
      "skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
      "listing_id": "497228137696833341",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
      "name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:04.122901Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "523123940968972186",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:00.073440Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.08,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "505109542379822024",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:34.613138Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.11,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "512990841907798343",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:34.613138Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
      "listing_id": "527627540537458508",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:48.990202Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.38,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "659356415310663082",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:34.613138Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "642467916639686441",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:00.073440Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-train-2025:6"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.46 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.97 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $0.96	$9.67 +130.9%	$5.23 +24.7%	60.0%	+75.5%	$4.19	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $42.56 Charged Up 20.0% $22.79 Night Terror 8.0% $4.00 Space Cat 8.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $2.67	$64.86 +187.5%	$27.10 +20.1%	60.0%	+96.4%	$22.56	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.44 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Night Terror 10.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $0.94	$9.67 +179.6%	$4.50 +30.1%	50.0%	+95.0%	$3.46	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.44 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Night Terror 12.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $0.94	$9.67 +225.7%	$3.79 +27.5%	40.0%	+110.4%	$2.97	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 23.3% $9.67 Charged Up 23.3% $7.53 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $0.96 Dream Glade 6.0% $0.90	$9.67 +96.2%	$5.95 +20.7%	70.0%	+59.6%	$4.93	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $42.56 Charged Up 26.7% $22.79 Night Terror 4.0% $4.00 Space Cat 4.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $2.67	$64.86 +118.4%	$35.25 +18.7%	53.3%	+68.3%	$29.70	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 10.0% $9.67 Charged Up 10.0% $7.53 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Night Terror 14.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $0.96 Dream Glade 14.0% $0.90	$9.67 +266.4%	$3.07 +16.4%	30.0%	+119.0%	$2.64	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Derailment 6.7% $14.73 Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Charged Up 6.7% $7.46 Night Terror 16.0% $1.40 Space Cat 16.0% $1.21 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $1.01	$14.73 +441.7%	$3.00 +10.3%	20.0%	+142.5%	$2.72	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 25.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 16.7% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 16.7% $34.92 Melondrama 16.7% $33.53	$597.10 +226.9%	$240.86 +31.9%	50.0%	+126.6%	$182.64	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear	LongDog 20.0% $663.30 Nightwish 40.0% $117.09 Starlight Protector 40.0% $112.74	$663.30 +287.7%	$224.59 +31.3%	20.0%	+128.2%	$171.07	—