The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5

Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items

Battle-Scarred +1.7%Factory New +30.8%Field-Tested +25.7%Minimal Wear +25.8%Well-Worn +4.1%

Contract

Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™

Inputs

Rising Sun

2x $1.73

Wave Breaker

3x $2.42

Urban Sovereign

4x $3.19

Amberline

1x $3.52

↓

Possible Outputs

Crane Flight

16.7% $126.41

Shinobu

16.7% $35.33

Searing Rage

16.7% $27.21

Kintsugi

16.7% $23.12

Deathgaze

16.7% $21.23

K.O. Factory

16.7% $14.07

Max Win

$126.41 (+285.6%)

EV (ROI %)

$41.23 (+25.8%)

Win %

33.3%

Volatility

+117.8%

Cost

$32.78

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $32.78

Ask Price EV $41.23 (+25.8%)

Bid Price EV $36.23 (+10.5%)

Ask Profit $8.45 (+25.8%)

Bid Profit $3.45 (+10.5%)

Liquidity Gap $5.00 (+15.3%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$8.45

Bid Slippage Buffer +$3.45

Risk

Win Probability 33.3%

Loss Probability 66.7%

Best Case $126.41 (+285.6%)

Worst Case $14.07 (-57.1%)

Volatility +117.8%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%

Avg Win +$48.09

Avg Loss -$11.37

Bottom 5% Outcome $14.07 (-57.1%)

Std Dev $38.63

Avg Norm Float 0.1499

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 14m

Oldest Output Price 30h 54m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Nova | Rising Sun

—

Field-Tested

$1.73 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Rising Sun

—

Field-Tested

$1.75 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Wave Breaker

—

Minimal Wear

$2.42 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Wave Breaker

—

Minimal Wear

$2.64 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Wave Breaker

—

Minimal Wear

$2.66 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Field-Tested

$3.19 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Field-Tested

$3.52 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Minimal Wear

$4.72 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Minimal Wear

$4.75 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Minimal Wear

$5.40 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 46S //TOTAL COST $32.78 //ASK PRICE EV $41.23 //BID PRICE EV $36.23 //ASK PROFIT $8.45 (+25.8%) //BID PROFIT $3.45 (+10.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +117.8% //

Possible Outputs · 6

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Restricted|stattrak",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.14988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
      "realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 124,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
      "conservative_value": 112.39,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.14988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-4c2e3face5fd",
      "realistic_value": 27.206500000000002,
      "optimistic_value": 27.07,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Searing Rage",
      "conservative_value": 22.57,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:15.641741Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c2e3face5fd.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.14988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a7838b4ba71f",
      "realistic_value": 35.326499999999996,
      "optimistic_value": 35.12,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Shinobu",
      "conservative_value": 28.37,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:05:00.590744Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7838b4ba71f.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.14988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
      "realistic_value": 23.1245,
      "optimistic_value": 22.96,
      "output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
      "conservative_value": 20.66,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:31:38.635309Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.14988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "realistic_value": 21.23,
      "optimistic_value": 20.6,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "conservative_value": 19.38,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:31:41.267853Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.14988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
      "realistic_value": 14.07,
      "optimistic_value": 14,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
      "conservative_value": 13.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:18:40.420382Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_1a51bc7dd17c9f7440c3f567",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.73,
      "skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
      "listing_id": "527627487623049524",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:40.114542Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.75,
      "skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
      "listing_id": "503983589618855695",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:40.114542Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
      "listing_id": "492724590626068029",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:12.506888Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.64,
      "skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
      "listing_id": "491598524990384630",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:12.506888Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.66,
      "skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
      "listing_id": "529879235107639260",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:12.506888Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "492724590626648601",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:27.092707Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "497228024527485521",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:05.967617Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.72,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "500605889840023871",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.75,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "521997988014719718",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "506235337025176368",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": true,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-35:5+collection-set-community-37:5"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Shinobu 16.7% $85.17 Kintsugi 16.7% $65.51 Searing Rage 16.7% $64.42 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.47 K.O. Factory 16.7% $49.28	$290.04 +269.5%	$102.65 +30.8%	33.3%	+107.6%	$78.49	—
The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST	Crane Flight 16.7% $63.86 Searing Rage 16.7% $15.95 Shinobu 16.7% $14.72 Kintsugi 16.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 16.7% $11.91 K.O. Factory 16.7% $8.67	$63.86 +277.0%	$21.29 +25.7%	16.7%	+113.2%	$16.94	—
The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Well-Worn ST	Crane Flight 16.7% $45.29 Searing Rage 16.7% $15.02 Shinobu 16.7% $10.90 Deathgaze 16.7% $10.08 K.O. Factory 16.7% $9.83 Kintsugi 16.7% $7.96	$45.29 +185.5%	$16.51 +4.1%	16.7%	+82.2%	$15.86	—
The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Battle-Scarred ST	Crane Flight 16.7% $46.25 Searing Rage 16.7% $15.12 Shinobu 16.7% $11.02 Kintsugi 16.7% $9.34 Deathgaze 16.7% $7.94 K.O. Factory 16.7% $6.85	$46.25 +192.4%	$16.09 +1.7%	16.7%	+86.9%	$15.82	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fever Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Shinobu 13.3% $85.17 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Searing Rage 13.3% $64.42 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 K.O. Factory 13.3% $49.28	$290.04 +252.0%	$109.92 +33.4%	33.3%	+109.9%	$82.39	—
The Fever Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Shinobu 20.0% $85.17 Kintsugi 13.3% $65.51 Searing Rage 20.0% $64.42 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.47 K.O. Factory 20.0% $51.20	$290.04 +286.3%	$95.76 +27.5%	33.3%	+102.5%	$75.09	—
The Fever Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST	Crane Flight 10.0% $63.86 Searing Rage 23.3% $15.95 Shinobu 23.3% $14.72 Kintsugi 10.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 10.0% $11.91 K.O. Factory 23.3% $8.67	$63.86 +343.2%	$18.02 +25.1%	56.7%	+107.7%	$14.41	—
The Fever Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST	Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Searing Rage 26.7% $15.95 Shinobu 26.7% $14.72 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.91 K.O. Factory 26.7% $8.67	$63.86 +383.4%	$16.39 +24.0%	60.0%	+98.5%	$13.21	—
The Fever Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST	Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Searing Rage 30.0% $15.95 Shinobu 30.0% $14.72 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 3.3% $11.91 K.O. Factory 30.0% $8.67	$63.86 +395.4%	$14.75 +14.4%	63.3%	+74.5%	$12.89	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fever Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST	Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.92 Rising Sun 6.0% $12.22	$51.27 +208.5%	$21.06 +26.7%	42.0%	+76.6%	$16.62	—