The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Wave Breaker
2x $2.66
Rising Sun
1x $3.45
Tosai
2x $6.71
Urban Sovereign
4x $4.72
Galigator
1x $7.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
16.7% $290.04
Shinobu
16.7% $85.17
Kintsugi
16.7% $65.51
Searing Rage
16.7% $64.42
Deathgaze
16.7% $61.47
K.O. Factory
16.7% $51.20
Max Win
$290.04 (+275.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$102.97 (+33.2%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+109.0%
Cost
$77.31
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $77.31
Ask Price EV $102.97 (+33.2%)
Bid Price EV $86.69 (+12.1%)
Ask Profit $25.66 (+33.2%)
Bid Profit $9.38 (+12.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $16.28 (+21.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$25.66
Bid Slippage Buffer +$9.38
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $290.04 (+275.2%)
Worst Case $51.20 (-33.8%)
Volatility +109.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 16.7%
Avg Win +$110.30
Avg Loss -$16.66
Bottom 5% Outcome $51.20 (-33.8%)
Std Dev $84.27
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 141h 33m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Wave Breaker
—
Minimal Wear
$2.66 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Rising Sun
—
Minimal Wear
$3.45 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Tosai
—
Factory New
$6.71 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Tosai
—
Factory New
$7.47 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Wave Breaker
—
Factory New
$10.43 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$7.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$13.68 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 08M 04S //TOTAL COST $77.31 //ASK PRICE EV $102.97 //BID PRICE EV $86.69 //ASK PROFIT $25.66 (+33.2%) //BID PROFIT $9.38 (+12.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +109.0% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$290.04
+$212.73
+275.2%
$229.11
+$151.80
+196.4%
$60.93
21.0%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$85.17
+$7.86
+10.2%
$73.80
-$3.51
-4.5%
$11.37
13.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$65.51
-$11.80
-15.3%
$55.11
-$22.20
-28.7%
$10.40
15.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$64.42
-$12.89
-16.7%
$59.15
-$18.16
-23.5%
$5.27
8.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$61.47
-$15.84
-20.5%
$55.38
-$21.93
-28.4%
$6.09
9.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$51.20
-$26.11
-33.8%
$47.56
-$29.75
-38.5%
$3.64
7.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4c2e3face5fd",
"realistic_value": 64.41850000000001,
"optimistic_value": 62.56,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Searing Rage",
"conservative_value": 59.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:51.325230Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c2e3face5fd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a7838b4ba71f",
"realistic_value": 85.171,
"optimistic_value": 84.59,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Shinobu",
"conservative_value": 73.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:23:23.372073Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7838b4ba71f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 65.5065,
"optimistic_value": 64.74,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.081354Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.465999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:09.820512Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
"realistic_value": 51.201499999999996,
"optimistic_value": 49,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
"conservative_value": 47.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:33:44.475563Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1a51bc7dd17c9f7440c3f567",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.66,
"skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"listing_id": "529879235107639260",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:15.157940Z"
},
{
"price": 3.45,
"skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"listing_id": "518620122758087356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:41.789858Z"
},
{
"price": 6.71,
"skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"listing_id": "500605889841229511",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:07.166958Z"
},
{
"price": 7.47,
"skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"listing_id": "650349144126284337",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:07.166958Z"
},
{
"price": 10.43,
"skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"listing_id": "491598638255808134",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:53:56.440412Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605889840023871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 7.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "524249787960966687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:56.622316Z"
},
{
"price": 13.68,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "518620288314054676",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:03.139906Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:03.139906Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-35:5+collection-set-community-37:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $126.41 Shinobu 16.7% $35.33 Searing Rage 16.7% $27.10 Kintsugi 16.7% $23.12 Deathgaze 16.7% $21.23 K.O. Factory 16.7% $14.07 | $126.41 +288.8% | $41.21 +26.8% | 33.3% | +118.8% | $32.51 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $63.86 Searing Rage 16.7% $15.95 Shinobu 16.7% $14.72 Kintsugi 16.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 16.7% $11.91 K.O. Factory 16.7% $8.67 | $63.86 +275.4% | $21.29 +25.2% | 16.7% | +112.7% | $17.01 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Well-Worn ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $45.29 Searing Rage 16.7% $15.02 Shinobu 16.7% $10.90 Deathgaze 16.7% $10.22 K.O. Factory 16.7% $9.83 Kintsugi 16.7% $7.96 | $45.29 +174.0% | $16.54 +0.0% | 16.7% | +78.8% | $16.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Shinobu 20.0% $85.17 Kintsugi 13.3% $65.51 Searing Rage 20.0% $64.42 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.47 K.O. Factory 20.0% $51.20 | $290.04 +291.8% | $95.76 +29.4% | 33.3% | +104.0% | $74.03 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $290.04 Shinobu 23.3% $85.17 Kintsugi 10.0% $65.51 Searing Rage 23.3% $64.42 Deathgaze 10.0% $61.47 K.O. Factory 23.3% $51.20 | $290.04 +304.4% | $88.55 +23.5% | 33.3% | +95.1% | $71.73 | — |
The Fever Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $126.41 Shinobu 26.7% $35.33 Searing Rage 26.7% $26.63 Kintsugi 6.7% $23.12 Deathgaze 6.7% $21.23 K.O. Factory 26.7% $14.09 | $126.41 +373.6% | $31.66 +18.6% | 33.3% | +99.4% | $26.69 | — |
The Fever Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $290.04 Shinobu 30.0% $85.17 Kintsugi 3.3% $65.51 Searing Rage 30.0% $64.42 Deathgaze 3.3% $61.47 K.O. Factory 30.0% $51.20 | $290.04 +326.5% | $74.14 +9.0% | 33.3% | +62.1% | $68.01 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum  14.0% $10.69 Firebreathing  14.0% $6.12 Galigator 14.0% $3.26 Amberline  14.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $3.19 Serpent Strike  6.0% $1.64 | $10.69 +243.8% | $4.10 +31.9% | 70.0% | +87.1% | $3.11 | — |