The 2021 Mirage Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Anolis
1x $1.27
Navy Sheen
2x $2.15
Silver Pour
3x $0.04
Sleet
3x $0.04
Bizoom
1x $0.08
↓
Possible Outputs
CaliCamo
7.5% $65.58
Drift Wood
7.5% $15.37
Midnight Palm
7.5% $15.00
Verdant Growth
7.5% $13.13
Snow Splash
14.0% $0.34
Vendetta
14.0% $0.29
Max Win
$65.58 (+931.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.34 (+31.1%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+272.6%
Cost
$6.36
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.36
Ask Price EV $8.34 (+31.1%)
Bid Price EV $7.91 (+24.3%)
Ask Profit $1.98 (+31.1%)
Bid Profit $1.55 (+24.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.43 (+6.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.98
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.55
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $65.58 (+931.1%)
Worst Case $0.10 (-98.5%)
Volatility +272.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$20.91
Avg Loss -$6.14
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.10 (-98.5%)
Std Dev $17.34
Avg Norm Float 0.1163
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 34h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Anolis
—
Field-Tested
$1.27 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Navy Sheen
—
Minimal Wear
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Navy Sheen
—
Minimal Wear
$2.25 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Silver Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Sleet
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Bizoom
—
Factory New
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Sleet
—
Factory New
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Sleet
—
Factory New
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Silver Pour
—
Factory New
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Silver Pour
—
Factory New
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 15S //TOTAL COST $6.36 //ASK PRICE EV $8.34 //BID PRICE EV $7.91 //ASK PROFIT $1.98 (+31.1%) //BID PROFIT $1.55 (+24.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $65.58 //VOLATILITY +272.6% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$65.58
+$59.22
+931.1%
$62.30
+$55.94
+879.6%
$3.28
5.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$15.37
+$9.01
+141.7%
$14.79
+$8.43
+132.5%
$0.58
3.8%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$15.00
+$8.64
+135.8%
$13.58
+$7.22
+113.5%
$1.42
9.5%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$13.13
+$6.77
+106.5%
$12.91
+$6.55
+103.0%
$0.22
1.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$0.34
-$6.02
-94.7%
$0.31
-$6.05
-95.1%
$0.03
8.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$0.29
-$6.07
-95.4%
$0.27
-$6.09
-95.8%
$0.02
6.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$0.27
-$6.09
-95.8%
$0.24
-$6.12
-96.2%
$0.03
11.1%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.11
-$6.25
-98.3%
$0.09
-$6.27
-98.6%
$0.02
15.9%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.10
-$6.26
-98.5%
$0.08
-$6.28
-98.7%
$0.02
17.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"realistic_value": 0.29,
"optimistic_value": 0.29,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"conservative_value": 0.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:48:40.003225Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0755625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"realistic_value": 0.107,
"optimistic_value": 0.1,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"conservative_value": 0.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:32.819057Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"realistic_value": 0.34,
"optimistic_value": 0.34,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"conservative_value": 0.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:06.140081Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"realistic_value": 0.27,
"optimistic_value": 0.27,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"conservative_value": 0.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:11.715863Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.09339408750000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"realistic_value": 0.097,
"optimistic_value": 0.09,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"conservative_value": 0.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:34:29.992892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.058125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6dbbf1e46f10",
"realistic_value": 15,
"optimistic_value": 15,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm",
"conservative_value": 13.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Mirage Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:21:57.873486Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6dbbf1e46f10.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ae29431fe9d",
"realistic_value": 15.371,
"optimistic_value": 15.35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Drift Wood",
"conservative_value": 14.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Mirage Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Drift Wood (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:22:04.089808Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ae29431fe9d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-05b6323df391",
"realistic_value": 65.5765,
"optimistic_value": 64.32,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | CaliCamo",
"conservative_value": 62.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Mirage Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | CaliCamo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:22:14.834067Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05b6323df391.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.0546375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3a4c195cc1e",
"realistic_value": 13.1325,
"optimistic_value": 12.94,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Verdant Growth",
"conservative_value": 12.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Mirage Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Verdant Growth (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:22:00.112921Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3a4c195cc1e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_19c2809a59d00703d90f3080",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.27,
"skin_id": "skin-9ee3bd1dc597",
"listing_id": "516368436281719898",
"collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Anolis",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ee3bd1dc597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:07.724694Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-3033f9235a6c",
"listing_id": "507361289453470945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Navy Sheen",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3033f9235a6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:33.096375Z"
},
{
"price": 2.25,
"skin_id": "skin-3033f9235a6c",
"listing_id": "516368488725363398",
"collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Navy Sheen",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3033f9235a6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:33.096375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-6e77ad6f522c",
"listing_id": "502857689862086380",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e77ad6f522c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:54.474329Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-81cd69f7a061",
"listing_id": "496102124623828955",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Sleet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Sleet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-81cd69f7a061.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:02.220154Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-66a37bb94450",
"listing_id": "501731737285758221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Bizoom (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Bizoom",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-66a37bb94450.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:49.924392Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-81cd69f7a061",
"listing_id": "528753387756937125",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Sleet (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Sleet",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-81cd69f7a061.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:43.179543Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-81cd69f7a061",
"listing_id": "509613089304857907",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Sleet (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Sleet",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-81cd69f7a061.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:43.179543Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-6e77ad6f522c",
"listing_id": "499479989896787881",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e77ad6f522c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:10.605232Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-6e77ad6f522c",
"listing_id": "520872088106022828",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e77ad6f522c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:10.605232Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-mirage-2021:3+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Mirage Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New | CaliCamo 7.5% $65.58 Drift Wood 7.5% $15.37 Midnight Palm 7.5% $15.00 Verdant Growth 7.5% $13.13 Aeolian Dark 14.0% $0.71 Dark Chamber 14.0% $0.47 | $65.58 +692.9% | $8.47 +2.4% | 30.0% | +198.8% | $8.27 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Mirage Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | CaliCamo 10.0% $65.58 Drift Wood 10.0% $15.37 Midnight Palm 10.0% $15.00 Verdant Growth 10.0% $13.13 Snow Splash 12.0% $0.34 Vendetta 12.0% $0.29 | $65.58 +659.9% | $11.04 +27.9% | 40.0% | +210.1% | $8.63 | — |
The 2021 Mirage Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | CaliCamo 12.5% $65.58 Drift Wood 12.5% $15.37 Midnight Palm 12.5% $15.00 Verdant Growth 12.5% $13.13 Snow Splash 10.0% $0.34 Vendetta 10.0% $0.29 | $65.58 +472.7% | $13.75 +20.1% | 50.0% | +168.5% | $11.45 | — |