The 2021 Mirage Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Sienna Damask
2x $1.06
Anolis
1x $1.27
Currents
3x $0.03
Silver Pour
1x $0.04
Sleet
1x $0.04
Sleet
1x $0.05
↓
Possible Outputs
CaliCamo
7.5% $10.59
Verdant Growth
7.5% $10.26
Drift Wood
7.5% $10.14
Midnight Palm
7.5% $10.08
Snow Splash
14.0% $0.12
Snow Splash
14.0% $0.10
Max Win
$10.59 (+173.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.14 (-18.9%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+120.6%
Cost
$3.87
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.87
Ask Price EV $3.14 (-18.9%)
Bid Price EV $3.00 (-22.6%)
Ask Profit $-0.73 (-18.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.87 (-22.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.14 (+3.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.73
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.87
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $10.59 (+173.6%)
Worst Case $0.05 (-98.8%)
Volatility +120.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$6.40
Avg Loss -$3.78
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.05 (-98.8%)
Std Dev $4.67
Avg Norm Float 0.2470
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 35h 40m
Oldest Output Price 99h 31m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Sienna Damask
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Sienna Damask
—
Field-Tested
$1.20 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Anolis
—
Field-Tested
$1.27 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Currents
—
Minimal Wear
$0.03 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Currents
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Silver Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Sleet
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sleet
—
Minimal Wear
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Bizoom
—
Factory New
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Currents
—
Factory New
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 02M 26S //TOTAL COST $3.87 //ASK PRICE EV $3.14 //BID PRICE EV $3.00 //ASK PROFIT $-0.73 (-18.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.87 (-22.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $10.59 //VOLATILITY +120.6% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
7.5%
$10.59
+$6.72
+173.6%
$10.00
+$6.13
+158.4%
$0.59
5.5%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$10.26
+$6.39
+165.1%
$9.91
+$6.04
+156.1%
$0.35
3.4%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$10.14
+$6.27
+162.0%
$9.75
+$5.88
+151.9%
$0.39
3.8%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$10.08
+$6.21
+160.4%
$9.75
+$5.88
+151.9%
$0.33
3.3%
—
NUKE THIN BID
14.0%
$0.12
-$3.75
-96.9%
$0.08
-$3.79
-97.9%
$0.04
33.3%
—
NUKE THIN BID
14.0%
$0.10
-$3.77
-97.3%
$0.07
-$3.80
-98.2%
$0.03
32.4%
—
NUKE THIN BID
14.0%
$0.10
-$3.77
-97.4%
$0.07
-$3.80
-98.2%
$0.03
30.0%
—
NUKE THIN BID
14.0%
$0.06
-$3.81
-98.4%
$0.04
-$3.83
-99.0%
$0.02
33.3%
—
NUKE THIN BID
14.0%
$0.05
-$3.82
-98.8%
$0.03
-$3.84
-99.2%
$0.02
33.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.148218,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"realistic_value": 0.1,
"optimistic_value": 0.1,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"conservative_value": 0.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:51:12.898418Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1605695,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"realistic_value": 0.045,
"optimistic_value": 0.07,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"conservative_value": 0.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:35:38.292987Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.148218,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"realistic_value": 0.12,
"optimistic_value": 0.12,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"conservative_value": 0.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:30:44.510239Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.148218,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"realistic_value": 0.10350000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.1,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"conservative_value": 0.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:22:50.364215Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.19846143170000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"realistic_value": 0.06,
"optimistic_value": 0.06,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"conservative_value": 0.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:42.994918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.123515,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6dbbf1e46f10",
"realistic_value": 10.078000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.05,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm",
"conservative_value": 9.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Mirage Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:43:43.636577Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6dbbf1e46f10.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.148218,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ae29431fe9d",
"realistic_value": 10.14,
"optimistic_value": 9.86,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Drift Wood",
"conservative_value": 9.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Mirage Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Drift Wood (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T18:50:44.377130Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ae29431fe9d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.148218,
"output_skin_id": "skin-05b6323df391",
"realistic_value": 10.586500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.52,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | CaliCamo",
"conservative_value": 10,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Mirage Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | CaliCamo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:22:04.207678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05b6323df391.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.11610409999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3a4c195cc1e",
"realistic_value": 10.2585,
"optimistic_value": 9.94,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Verdant Growth",
"conservative_value": 9.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Mirage Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:21:59.726651Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3a4c195cc1e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_19c2809a59d00703d90f3080",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-62d86c75d355",
"listing_id": "545639912131841270",
"collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Sienna Damask",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62d86c75d355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:22:00.349321Z"
},
{
"price": 1.2,
"skin_id": "skin-62d86c75d355",
"listing_id": "491598524994121862",
"collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Sienna Damask",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62d86c75d355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:12:58.193818Z"
},
{
"price": 1.27,
"skin_id": "skin-9ee3bd1dc597",
"listing_id": "516368436281719898",
"collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Anolis",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ee3bd1dc597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:15.505264Z"
},
{
"price": 0.03,
"skin_id": "skin-18a19585ed8f",
"listing_id": "526501587737522573",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Currents (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Currents",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-18a19585ed8f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:51:27.188971Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-18a19585ed8f",
"listing_id": "508487023591291334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Currents (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Currents",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-18a19585ed8f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:51:27.188971Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-6e77ad6f522c",
"listing_id": "502857689862086380",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e77ad6f522c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:46.390633Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-81cd69f7a061",
"listing_id": "496102124623828955",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Sleet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Sleet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-81cd69f7a061.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:56:24.694267Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-1f71b62e4990",
"listing_id": "490472625090383739",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sleet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Sleet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1f71b62e4990.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:46:01.326465Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-66a37bb94450",
"listing_id": "526501587737330045",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Bizoom (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Bizoom",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-66a37bb94450.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:54.725374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-18a19585ed8f",
"listing_id": "517494388632945418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Currents (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Currents",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-18a19585ed8f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:27.000089Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-mirage-2021:3+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Mirage Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | CaliCamo 7.5% $65.58 Drift Wood 7.5% $15.37 Midnight Palm 7.5% $15.00 Verdant Growth 7.5% $13.13 Snow Splash 14.0% $0.34 Vendetta 14.0% $0.29 | $65.58 +931.1% | $8.34 +31.1% | 30.0% | +259.6% | $6.36 | — |
The 2021 Mirage Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New | CaliCamo 7.5% $65.58 Drift Wood 7.5% $15.37 Midnight Palm 7.5% $15.00 Verdant Growth 7.5% $13.13 Aeolian Dark 14.0% $0.71 Dark Chamber 14.0% $0.47 | $65.58 +692.9% | $8.47 +2.4% | 30.0% | +198.8% | $8.27 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Mirage Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | CaliCamo 10.0% $65.58 Drift Wood 10.0% $15.37 Midnight Palm 10.0% $15.00 Verdant Growth 10.0% $13.13 Snow Splash 12.0% $0.33 Vendetta 12.0% $0.29 | $65.58 +646.0% | $11.04 +25.6% | 40.0% | +206.3% | $8.79 | — |
The 2021 Mirage Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | CaliCamo 12.5% $65.58 Drift Wood 12.5% $15.37 Midnight Palm 12.5% $15.00 Verdant Growth 12.5% $13.13 Snow Splash 10.0% $0.34 Vendetta 10.0% $0.29 | $65.58 +478.8% | $13.75 +21.3% | 50.0% | +170.3% | $11.33 | — |