The 2021 Mirage Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New
Inputs
Navy Sheen
3x $2.15
Currents
1x $0.03
Sleet
2x $0.09
Silver Pour
2x $0.16
Bizoom
1x $0.47
Dizzy
1x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
CaliCamo
7.5% $65.58
Drift Wood
7.5% $15.37
Midnight Palm
7.5% $15.00
Verdant Growth
7.5% $13.13
Aeolian Dark
14.0% $0.71
Dark Chamber
14.0% $0.47
Max Win
$65.58 (+692.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.47 (+2.4%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+208.9%
Cost
$8.27
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $8.27
Ask Price EV $8.47 (+2.4%)
Bid Price EV $8.04 (-2.8%)
Ask Profit $0.20 (+2.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.23 (-2.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.44 (+5.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.20
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.23
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $65.58 (+692.9%)
Worst Case $0.27 (-96.7%)
Volatility +208.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$19.00
Avg Loss -$7.85
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.27 (-96.7%)
Std Dev $17.27
Avg Norm Float 0.0696
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 35h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Navy Sheen
—
Minimal Wear
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Navy Sheen
—
Minimal Wear
$2.25 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Navy Sheen
—
Minimal Wear
$2.26 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Currents
—
Minimal Wear
$0.03 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Sleet
—
Factory New
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Sleet
—
Factory New
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Silver Pour
—
Factory New
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Silver Pour
—
Factory New
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Bizoom
—
Factory New
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Dizzy
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 01M 59S //TOTAL COST $8.27 //ASK PRICE EV $8.47 //BID PRICE EV $8.04 //ASK PROFIT $0.20 (+2.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.23 (-2.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $65.58 //VOLATILITY +208.9% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
7.5%
$65.58
+$57.31
+692.9%
$62.30
+$54.03
+653.3%
$3.28
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$15.37
+$7.10
+85.9%
$14.79
+$6.52
+78.8%
$0.58
3.8%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$15.00
+$6.73
+81.4%
$13.58
+$5.31
+64.2%
$1.42
9.5%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$13.13
+$4.86
+58.8%
$12.91
+$4.64
+56.1%
$0.22
1.7%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.71
-$7.56
-91.5%
$0.66
-$7.61
-92.0%
$0.05
6.6%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.47
-$7.80
-94.3%
$0.43
-$7.84
-94.8%
$0.04
8.6%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.34
-$7.93
-95.9%
$0.31
-$7.96
-96.3%
$0.03
8.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.29
-$7.98
-96.5%
$0.27
-$8.00
-96.7%
$0.02
6.9%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.27
-$8.00
-96.7%
$0.24
-$8.03
-97.1%
$0.03
11.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041772,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"realistic_value": 0.29,
"optimistic_value": 0.29,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"conservative_value": 0.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:20.483160Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.045253,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"realistic_value": 0.707,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:59.301050Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041772,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"realistic_value": 0.34,
"optimistic_value": 0.34,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"conservative_value": 0.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:53.213447Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041772,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"realistic_value": 0.27,
"optimistic_value": 0.27,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"conservative_value": 0.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:17.305618Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.05593201180000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"realistic_value": 0.47050000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 0.46,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"conservative_value": 0.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:26.471548Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.03481,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6dbbf1e46f10",
"realistic_value": 15,
"optimistic_value": 15,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm",
"conservative_value": 13.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Mirage Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:21:57.873486Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6dbbf1e46f10.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.041772,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ae29431fe9d",
"realistic_value": 15.371,
"optimistic_value": 15.35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Drift Wood",
"conservative_value": 14.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Mirage Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Drift Wood (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:22:04.089808Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ae29431fe9d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.041772,
"output_skin_id": "skin-05b6323df391",
"realistic_value": 65.5765,
"optimistic_value": 64.32,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | CaliCamo",
"conservative_value": 62.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Mirage Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | CaliCamo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:22:14.834067Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05b6323df391.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.0327214,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3a4c195cc1e",
"realistic_value": 13.1325,
"optimistic_value": 12.94,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Verdant Growth",
"conservative_value": 12.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Mirage Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Verdant Growth (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:22:00.112921Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3a4c195cc1e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_19c2809a59d00703d90f3080",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-3033f9235a6c",
"listing_id": "507361289453470945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Navy Sheen",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3033f9235a6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:59.376255Z"
},
{
"price": 2.25,
"skin_id": "skin-3033f9235a6c",
"listing_id": "516368488725363398",
"collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Navy Sheen",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3033f9235a6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:59.376255Z"
},
{
"price": 2.26,
"skin_id": "skin-3033f9235a6c",
"listing_id": "524249735517228291",
"collection_id": "collection-set-mirage-2021",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Navy Sheen",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3033f9235a6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:59.376255Z"
},
{
"price": 0.03,
"skin_id": "skin-18a19585ed8f",
"listing_id": "526501587737522573",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Currents (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Currents",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-18a19585ed8f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:51:27.188971Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-81cd69f7a061",
"listing_id": "528753387756937125",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Sleet (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Sleet",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-81cd69f7a061.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:20.209660Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-81cd69f7a061",
"listing_id": "509613089304857907",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Sleet (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Sleet",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-81cd69f7a061.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:20.209660Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-6e77ad6f522c",
"listing_id": "499479989896787881",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e77ad6f522c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:51.453888Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-6e77ad6f522c",
"listing_id": "520872088106022828",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e77ad6f522c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:51.453888Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-66a37bb94450",
"listing_id": "528753221919057513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Bizoom (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Bizoom",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-66a37bb94450.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:54.725374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-fd612b65c748",
"listing_id": "505109323867434440",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Dizzy (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Dizzy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fd612b65c748.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:16.086908Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-mirage-2021:3+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Mirage Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | CaliCamo 7.5% $65.58 Drift Wood 7.5% $15.37 Midnight Palm 7.5% $15.00 Verdant Growth 7.5% $13.13 Snow Splash 14.0% $0.34 Vendetta 14.0% $0.29 | $65.58 +931.1% | $8.34 +31.1% | 30.0% | +259.6% | $6.36 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Mirage Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | CaliCamo 10.0% $65.58 Drift Wood 10.0% $15.37 Midnight Palm 10.0% $15.00 Verdant Growth 10.0% $13.13 Snow Splash 12.0% $0.33 Vendetta 12.0% $0.29 | $65.58 +646.0% | $11.04 +25.6% | 40.0% | +206.3% | $8.79 | — |
The 2021 Mirage Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | CaliCamo 12.5% $65.58 Drift Wood 12.5% $15.37 Midnight Palm 12.5% $15.00 Verdant Growth 12.5% $13.13 Snow Splash 10.0% $0.34 Vendetta 10.0% $0.29 | $65.58 +478.8% | $13.75 +21.3% | 50.0% | +170.3% | $11.33 | — |