The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Wall Bang
2x $0.07
Wash me
1x $0.09
Robin's Egg
1x $0.06
Naval Shred Camo
1x $0.07
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.08
Electric Blue
2x $0.08
↓
Possible Outputs
Yeti Camo
14.0% $1.89
Royal Baroque
14.0% $1.15
Cobalt Paisley
14.0% $1.11
Mint Fan
14.0% $1.09
Reef Grief
14.0% $1.09
Metallic Squeezer
7.5% $0.78
Max Win
$1.89 (+117.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.07 (+22.6%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+47.4%
Cost
$0.87
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.87
Ask Price EV $1.07 (+22.6%)
Bid Price EV $0.98 (+12.2%)
Ask Profit $0.20 (+22.6%)
Bid Profit $0.11 (+12.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.09 (+10.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.20
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.11
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $1.89 (+117.6%)
Worst Case $0.41 (-52.5%)
Volatility +47.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 15.0%
Avg Win +$0.40
Avg Loss -$0.27
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.41 (-52.5%)
Std Dev $0.41
Avg Norm Float 0.2120
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 27m
Oldest Output Price 61h 26m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Wash me
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 38S //TOTAL COST $0.87 //ASK PRICE EV $1.07 //BID PRICE EV $0.98 //ASK PROFIT $0.20 (+22.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.11 (+12.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $1.89 //VOLATILITY +47.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
14.0%
$1.89
+$1.02
+117.6%
$1.81
+$0.94
+108.0%
$0.08
4.4%
—
WIN
14.0%
$1.15
+$0.28
+32.6%
$1.01
+$0.14
+16.1%
$0.14
12.4%
—
WIN
14.0%
$1.11
+$0.24
+28.0%
$1.04
+$0.17
+19.5%
$0.07
6.6%
—
WIN
14.0%
$1.09
+$0.22
+25.7%
$0.94
+$0.07
+8.0%
$0.15
14.0%
—
WIN
14.0%
$1.09
+$0.21
+24.7%
$0.95
+$0.08
+9.2%
$0.14
12.4%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$0.78
-$0.09
-10.3%
$0.74
-$0.13
-14.9%
$0.04
5.1%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$0.69
-$0.18
-20.7%
$0.66
-$0.21
-24.1%
$0.03
4.3%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$0.50
-$0.37
-42.5%
$0.49
-$0.38
-43.7%
$0.01
2.0%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$0.41
-$0.46
-52.5%
$0.39
-$0.48
-55.2%
$0.02
5.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.127212,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 1.0935000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.09,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 0.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:59.671242Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.148414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.8935,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:55.131294Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.137813,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.1135000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.11,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:20.089447Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.127212,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 1.1535,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:38.845080Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.127212,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 1.085,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 0.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:27.736544Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.127212,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 0.78,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:24.836819Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.10601,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:52.689426Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.190818,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 0.4135,
"optimistic_value": 0.41,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 0.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:11:17.829941Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.21202,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 0.5,
"optimistic_value": 0.5,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 0.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T14:53:19.262329Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_16f9f8cbabc41c039b89515f",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "493850438105537140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:08:25.527768Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "524249735517159423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:08:25.527768Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-d26b2336552f",
"listing_id": "526501587737539097",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wash me (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Wash me",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d26b2336552f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:55.998242Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "500605889841532055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:27.420672Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "528753387757424781",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:51:40.941714Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "512989991916998255",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:51.187708Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "498353293092622147",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.711320Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "502856892584036416",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.711320Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "519746188258687940",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:42.766030Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "524249787961224195",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:48.519178Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 14.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 Metallic Squeezer 7.5% $2.34 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.26 Teal Graf 7.5% $2.18 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.89 | $3.37 +110.8% | $2.09 +30.7% | 71.0% | +33.5% | $1.60 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 8.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 Metallic Squeezer 15.0% $2.33 Reef Grief 8.0% $2.27 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.89 | $3.37 +104.5% | $1.93 +16.9% | 62.0% | +30.4% | $1.65 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 10.0% $3.36 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Metallic Squeezer 12.5% $2.34 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.18 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.90 | $3.36 +96.5% | $1.98 +15.9% | 65.0% | +29.8% | $1.71 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.11 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.10 Mint Fan 12.0% $1.09 Reef Grief 12.0% $1.04 Metallic Squeezer 10.0% $0.78 | $1.90 +118.4% | $0.99 +13.5% | 60.0% | +38.0% | $0.87 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 18.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 18.0% $1.11 Royal Baroque 18.0% $1.10 Mint Fan 18.0% $1.09 Reef Grief 18.0% $1.04 Metallic Squeezer 2.5% $0.78 | $1.90 +79.3% | $1.18 +11.6% | 72.0% | +30.5% | $1.06 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $6.94 Monster Melt  3.3% $3.97 Eye of Zapems  3.3% $3.11 Sweet Little Angels  3.3% $2.91 Royal Guard  45.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +102.4% | $4.07 +18.6% | 48.3% | +77.7% | $3.43 | — |