The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Wall Bang
1x $0.17
Midnight Paintover
1x $0.31
Wash me plz
1x $0.86
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Gum Wall Camo
3x $0.36
Rose Nacre
2x $0.46
↓
Possible Outputs
Pipsqueak
7.5% $6.82
Wurst Hölle
7.5% $5.10
Yeti Camo
14.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
14.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
14.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
14.0% $2.64
Max Win
$6.82 (+27.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.39 (-36.7%)
Win %
7.5%
Volatility
+25.0%
Cost
$5.35
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.35
Ask Price EV $3.39 (-36.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.30 (-38.4%)
Ask Profit $-1.96 (-36.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.05 (-38.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.09 (+1.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.96
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.05
Risk
Win Probability 7.5%
Loss Probability 92.5%
Best Case $6.82 (+27.5%)
Worst Case $2.18 (-59.3%)
Volatility +25.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 71.0%
Avg Win +$1.47
Avg Loss -$2.24
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.18 (-59.3%)
Std Dev $1.34
Avg Norm Float 0.0693
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 143h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Factory New
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 05S //TOTAL COST $5.35 //ASK PRICE EV $3.39 //BID PRICE EV $3.30 //ASK PROFIT $-1.96 (-36.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.05 (-38.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 7.5% //BEST CASE $6.82 //VOLATILITY +25.0% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
7.5%
$6.82
+$1.47
+27.5%
$6.71
+$1.36
+25.4%
$0.11
1.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$5.10
-$0.25
-4.7%
$4.90
-$0.45
-8.4%
$0.20
3.9%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$4.46
-$0.89
-16.6%
$4.43
-$0.92
-17.2%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$3.37
-$1.98
-36.9%
$3.34
-$2.01
-37.6%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.66
-$2.69
-50.3%
$2.62
-$2.73
-51.0%
$0.04
1.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.64
-$2.71
-50.7%
$2.62
-$2.73
-51.0%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$2.34
-$3.01
-56.3%
$2.18
-$3.17
-59.3%
$0.16
6.7%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.26
-$3.09
-57.8%
$2.00
-$3.35
-62.6%
$0.26
11.4%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$2.18
-$3.17
-59.3%
$2.13
-$3.22
-60.2%
$0.05
2.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04158,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:12.767444Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04851,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.045045,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:56.230017Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04158,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:10.616732Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04158,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.257,
"optimistic_value": 2.25,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:59.016792Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.04158,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 2.337,
"optimistic_value": 2.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 2.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:36.110021Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.03465,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 2.1775,
"optimistic_value": 2.16,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:55.985391Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.06237,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 6.8235,
"optimistic_value": 6.82,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:07.257918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.0693,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 5.1000000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 5.03,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 4.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:00.365094Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_16f9f8cbabc41c039b89515f",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "490472790736935195",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:10.000128Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "527627487623999312",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:26.005352Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "501731737286075237",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:56.435918Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:40.480959Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "518620288314199036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.924859Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "521997988015573782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.924859Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "490471993876686363",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:00.309873Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "525375635594607271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:00.309873Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.924859Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "622201718380639200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:55.219474Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 14.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 Metallic Squeezer 7.5% $2.34 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.26 Teal Graf 7.5% $2.18 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.89 | $3.37 +110.8% | $2.09 +30.7% | 71.0% | +33.5% | $1.60 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.89 Royal Baroque 14.0% $1.15 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $1.11 Mint Fan 14.0% $1.09 Reef Grief 14.0% $1.09 Metallic Squeezer 7.5% $0.78 | $1.89 +117.6% | $1.07 +22.6% | 70.0% | +37.0% | $0.87 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 8.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 Metallic Squeezer 15.0% $2.33 Reef Grief 8.0% $2.27 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.89 | $3.37 +104.5% | $1.93 +16.9% | 62.0% | +30.4% | $1.65 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 10.0% $3.36 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Metallic Squeezer 12.5% $2.34 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.18 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.90 | $3.36 +96.5% | $1.98 +15.9% | 65.0% | +29.8% | $1.71 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.11 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.10 Mint Fan 12.0% $1.09 Reef Grief 12.0% $1.04 Metallic Squeezer 10.0% $0.78 | $1.90 +118.4% | $0.99 +13.5% | 60.0% | +38.0% | $0.87 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 18.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 18.0% $1.11 Royal Baroque 18.0% $1.10 Mint Fan 18.0% $1.09 Reef Grief 18.0% $1.04 Metallic Squeezer 2.5% $0.78 | $1.90 +79.3% | $1.18 +11.6% | 72.0% | +30.5% | $1.06 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $6.94 Monster Melt  3.3% $3.97 Eye of Zapems  3.3% $3.11 Sweet Little Angels  3.3% $2.91 Royal Guard  45.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +102.4% | $4.07 +18.6% | 48.3% | +77.7% | $3.43 | — |