The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Genesis Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Motorized
1x $0.35
Dezastre
3x $0.48
Slag
1x $0.50
Irezumi
1x $0.59
Light Box
1x $0.76
Dark Sigil
1x $0.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Liquidation
2.0% $46.21
Etch Lord
18.0% $13.06
Cat Fight
2.0% $10.59
Ocular
2.0% $10.40
Continuum
2.0% $10.38
Angel Eyes
2.0% $10.13
Max Win
$46.21 (+373.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.58 (-1.8%)
Win %
28.0%
Volatility
+60.5%
Cost
$9.75
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $9.75
Ask Price EV $9.58 (-1.8%)
Bid Price EV $8.48 (-13.0%)
Ask Profit $-0.17 (-1.8%)
Bid Profit $-1.27 (-13.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.10 (+11.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.17
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.27
Risk
Win Probability 28.0%
Loss Probability 72.0%
Best Case $46.21 (+373.9%)
Worst Case $4.21 (-56.8%)
Volatility +60.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 18.0%
Avg Win +$4.91
Avg Loss -$2.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.21 (-56.8%)
Std Dev $5.90
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 148h 6m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Factory New
$1.95 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 28M 41S //TOTAL COST $9.75 //ASK PRICE EV $9.58 //BID PRICE EV $8.48 //ASK PROFIT $-0.17 (-1.8%) //BID PROFIT $-1.27 (-13.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 28.0% //BEST CASE $46.21 //VOLATILITY +60.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$46.21
+$36.46
+373.9%
$40.17
+$30.42
+312.0%
$6.03
13.1%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$13.06
+$3.31
+33.9%
$12.03
+$2.28
+23.4%
$1.03
7.9%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$10.59
+$0.84
+8.7%
$9.06
-$0.69
-7.1%
$1.53
14.5%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$10.40
+$0.65
+6.7%
$8.24
-$1.51
-15.5%
$2.16
20.8%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$10.38
+$0.63
+6.5%
$8.34
-$1.41
-14.5%
$2.04
19.7%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$10.13
+$0.38
+3.9%
$8.90
-$0.85
-8.7%
$1.23
12.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$9.41
-$0.34
-3.5%
$7.84
-$1.91
-19.6%
$1.56
16.6%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$8.90
-$0.85
-8.7%
$7.77
-$1.98
-20.3%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$7.89
-$1.86
-19.1%
$7.43
-$2.32
-23.8%
$0.46
5.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.21
-$5.54
-56.8%
$3.74
-$6.01
-61.6%
$0.47
11.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:28:53.294795Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0469640625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.405,
"optimistic_value": 9.37,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:28:57.083073Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.043258314,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.211,
"optimistic_value": 4.19,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:03.422016Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 10.133000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 8.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:36.624182Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 46.205,
"optimistic_value": 46.03,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 40.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:27.351229Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 10.5945,
"optimistic_value": 10.5,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 9.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:00.269566Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 10.402,
"optimistic_value": 10.36,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 8.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:16.367685Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 10.383000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.32,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 8.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:24.517454Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_13a0ea688fd89e48a5402c15",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:04.876770Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "636838417157749708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:14.404922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "493850324808131632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:34:21.660047Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "625577443252700102",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:34:04.006438Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:14.404922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:49.432951Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:51.696176Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "519746022669746780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:18.517430Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "528753335311947405",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:22:55.349251Z"
},
{
"price": 1.95,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "518620288314673192",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Caged (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:22:40.363617Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:9+collection-set-community-36:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Genesis Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 2.0% $21.44 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Cat Fight 2.0% $4.32 Angel Eyes 2.0% $4.21 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Continuum 2.0% $4.01 | $21.44 +576.3% | $3.72 +17.3% | 46.0% | +80.0% | $3.17 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Genesis Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation 2.0% $11.18 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Etch Lord 18.0% $2.32 Cat Fight 2.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 2.0% $2.07 Ocular 2.0% $2.07 | $11.18 +390.5% | $2.46 +7.9% | 40.0% | +63.1% | $2.28 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Genesis Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 8.0% $21.44 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Cat Fight 8.0% $4.32 Angel Eyes 8.0% $4.21 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Continuum 8.0% $4.01 | $21.44 +442.8% | $5.03 +27.3% | 56.0% | +118.3% | $3.95 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Genesis Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 10.0% $21.44 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Cat Fight 10.0% $4.32 Angel Eyes 10.0% $4.21 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Continuum 10.0% $4.01 | $21.44 +398.6% | $5.45 +26.8% | 30.0% | +119.3% | $4.30 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Genesis Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 12.0% $21.44 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.45 Cat Fight 12.0% $4.32 Angel Eyes 12.0% $4.21 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Continuum 12.0% $4.01 | $21.44 +361.1% | $5.88 +26.4% | 12.0% | +118.8% | $4.65 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Genesis Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 14.0% $21.44 Etch Lord 6.0% $4.45 Cat Fight 14.0% $4.32 Angel Eyes 14.0% $4.21 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Continuum 14.0% $4.01 | $21.44 +325.4% | $6.29 +24.9% | 14.0% | +116.5% | $5.04 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Genesis Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 4.0% $21.44 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Cat Fight 4.0% $4.32 Angel Eyes 4.0% $4.21 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Continuum 4.0% $4.01 | $21.44 +538.1% | $4.17 +24.2% | 52.0% | +102.8% | $3.36 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Genesis Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 6.0% $21.44 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Cat Fight 6.0% $4.32 Angel Eyes 6.0% $4.21 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Continuum 6.0% $4.01 | $21.44 +481.0% | $4.58 +24.0% | 58.0% | +112.1% | $3.69 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Genesis Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 16.0% $21.44 Etch Lord 4.0% $4.45 Cat Fight 16.0% $4.32 Angel Eyes 16.0% $4.21 Block-18 4.0% $4.19 Continuum 16.0% $4.01 | $21.44 +293.4% | $6.72 +23.3% | 16.0% | +113.4% | $5.45 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Genesis Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 18.0% $21.44 Etch Lord 2.0% $4.45 Cat Fight 18.0% $4.32 Angel Eyes 18.0% $4.21 Block-18 2.0% $4.19 Continuum 18.0% $4.01 | $21.44 +265.2% | $7.16 +21.9% | 18.0% | +110.2% | $5.87 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Genesis Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Ice Coaled  16.7% $26.55 Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Smoking Kills  16.7% $21.84 Mirror Mosaic  16.7% $19.54 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Olympus  16.7% $8.56 | $26.55 +74.9% | $19.15 +26.2% | 66.7% | +39.1% | $15.18 | — |