The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3

Restricted → Classified MW 10 items

Factory New +27.3%Field-Tested -6.3%Minimal Wear +9.9%

Contract

Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear

Inputs

Space Cat

2x $1.28

Night Terror

1x $1.65

Ticket to Hell

1x $2.23

Zombie Offensive

3x $2.68

Charged Up

2x $7.48

Whiteout

1x $9.70

↓

Possible Outputs

Hellish

15.0% $138.17

Latte Rush

15.0% $122.85

Melondrama

23.3% $11.31

Abyssal Apparition

23.3% $11.16

Rapid Eye Movement

23.3% $11.07

Max Win

$138.17 (+223.4%)

EV (ROI %)

$46.98 (+9.9%)

Win %

30.0%

Volatility

+128.4%

Cost

$42.73

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $42.73

Ask Price EV $46.98 (+9.9%)

Bid Price EV $44.19 (+3.4%)

Ask Profit $4.25 (+9.9%)

Bid Profit $1.46 (+3.4%)

Liquidity Gap $2.79 (+6.5%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.25

Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.46

Risk

Win Probability 30.0%

Loss Probability 70.0%

Best Case $138.17 (+223.4%)

Worst Case $11.07 (-74.1%)

Volatility +128.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%

Avg Win +$87.78

Avg Loss -$31.55

Bottom 5% Outcome $11.07 (-74.1%)

Std Dev $54.85

Avg Norm Float 0.1498

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 13m

Oldest Output Price 43h 47m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

PP-Bizon | Space Cat

—

Minimal Wear

$1.28 Float: HIDDEN

PP-Bizon | Space Cat

—

Minimal Wear

$1.44 Float: HIDDEN

M4A1-S | Night Terror

—

Minimal Wear

$1.65 Float: HIDDEN

USP-S | Ticket to Hell

—

Minimal Wear

$2.23 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Zombie Offensive

—

Factory New

$2.68 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Zombie Offensive

—

Factory New

$2.69 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Zombie Offensive

—

Factory New

$2.88 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

—

Field-Tested

$7.48 Float: HIDDEN

Tec-9 | Whiteout

—

Field-Tested

$9.70 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

—

Field-Tested

$10.70 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 31M 45S //TOTAL COST $42.73 //ASK PRICE EV $46.98 //BID PRICE EV $44.19 //ASK PROFIT $4.25 (+9.9%) //BID PROFIT $1.46 (+3.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $138.17 //VOLATILITY +128.4% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.14978,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-53e4dc76b3e5",
      "realistic_value": 11.31,
      "optimistic_value": 11.31,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Melondrama",
      "conservative_value": 11.06,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:57:53.477355Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53e4dc76b3e5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.14978,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-c1ded03e3025",
      "realistic_value": 11.074,
      "optimistic_value": 10.99,
      "output_full_name": "FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement",
      "conservative_value": 10.98,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:56.436534Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c1ded03e3025.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.14978,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-335f1a313262",
      "realistic_value": 11.1555,
      "optimistic_value": 11.11,
      "output_full_name": "MP7 | Abyssal Apparition",
      "conservative_value": 11.01,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:57:53.021755Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-335f1a313262.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.14978,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-e7d48237eb0f",
      "realistic_value": 138.1745,
      "optimistic_value": 134.51,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Hellish",
      "conservative_value": 128.66,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Hellish (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T16:35:55.105656Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e7d48237eb0f.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.14978,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9836cfa060f6",
      "realistic_value": 122.8545,
      "optimistic_value": 120.66,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush",
      "conservative_value": 114.51,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:44:34.492918Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9836cfa060f6.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_133bcf705d29a6b7efbdd74d",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.28,
      "skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
      "listing_id": "529879340431891272",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:29.942134Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.44,
      "skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
      "listing_id": "496102290328391207",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:29.942134Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.65,
      "skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
      "listing_id": "526501587738271445",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:15:20.185426Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
      "listing_id": "523123091078926198",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:09:43.642204Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.68,
      "skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
      "listing_id": "511864888985939913",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:47.410946Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
      "listing_id": "492724590627009429",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:47.410946Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
      "listing_id": "492724590627017241",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:47.410946Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 7.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "listing_id": "524249840858989947",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:11.795154Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 9.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "499479989896331257",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:47.865780Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 10.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "listing_id": "493850543432341336",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:11.795154Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:7+collection-set-train-2025:3"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 15.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 15.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 23.3% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 23.3% $34.92 Melondrama 23.3% $33.54	$597.10 +378.4%	$158.90 +27.3%	30.0%	+164.5%	$124.80	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 25.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 16.7% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 16.7% $34.92 Melondrama 16.7% $33.54	$597.10 +218.5%	$240.87 +28.5%	50.0%	+123.3%	$187.46	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 20.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 20.0% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 20.0% $34.92 Melondrama 20.0% $33.54	$597.10 +279.9%	$199.88 +27.2%	40.0%	+141.5%	$157.17	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 30.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 30.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 13.3% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 13.3% $34.92 Melondrama 13.3% $33.54	$597.10 +166.2%	$281.85 +25.7%	60.0%	+103.7%	$224.27	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 35.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 10.0% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 10.0% $34.92 Melondrama 10.0% $33.54	$597.10 +129.3%	$322.83 +24.0%	70.0%	+87.0%	$260.35	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 10.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 10.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 26.7% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 26.7% $34.92 Melondrama 26.7% $33.54	$597.10 +508.0%	$117.92 +20.1%	20.0%	+180.6%	$98.20	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 6.7% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 6.7% $34.92 Melondrama 6.7% $33.54	$597.10 +96.6%	$363.81 +19.8%	40.0%	+70.0%	$303.76	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear	Hellish 5.0% $138.17 Latte Rush 5.0% $122.85 Abyssal Apparition 30.0% $11.17 Melondrama 30.0% $11.15 Rapid Eye Movement 30.0% $11.07	$138.17 +606.8%	$23.07 +18.0%	10.0%	+183.6%	$19.55	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Train 2025 Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 45.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 45.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 3.3% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 3.3% $34.92 Melondrama 3.3% $33.54	$597.10 +69.2%	$404.79 +14.7%	45.0%	+53.6%	$352.83	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 16.7% $9.68 Charged Up 16.7% $7.44 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Night Terror 10.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $0.93	$9.68 +182.2%	$4.50 +31.2%	50.0%	+95.9%	$3.43	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear	LongDog 20.0% $663.30 Nightwish 40.0% $117.09 Starlight Protector 40.0% $112.74	$663.30 +288.5%	$224.59 +31.6%	20.0%	+128.5%	$170.72	—