The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3

Restricted → Classified FN 10 items

Factory New +24.1%Field-Tested +15.0%Minimal Wear +7.6%

Contract

Restricted → Classified Factory New

Inputs

Zombie Offensive

4x $2.88

Space Cat

1x $5.23

Ticket to Hell

2x $5.75

Derailment

1x $14.88

Whiteout

2x $22.73

↓

Possible Outputs

Hellish

15.0% $597.10

Latte Rush

15.0% $294.44

Rapid Eye Movement

23.3% $39.43

Abyssal Apparition

23.3% $34.92

Melondrama

23.3% $33.54

Max Win

$597.10 (+366.4%)

EV (ROI %)

$158.90 (+24.1%)

Win %

30.0%

Volatility

+160.4%

Cost

$128.01

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $128.01

Ask Price EV $158.90 (+24.1%)

Bid Price EV $142.47 (+11.3%)

Ask Profit $30.89 (+24.1%)

Bid Profit $14.46 (+11.3%)

Liquidity Gap $16.43 (+12.8%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$30.89

Bid Slippage Buffer +$14.46

Risk

Win Probability 30.0%

Loss Probability 70.0%

Best Case $597.10 (+366.4%)

Worst Case $33.54 (-73.8%)

Volatility +160.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%

Avg Win +$317.76

Avg Loss -$92.05

Bottom 5% Outcome $33.54 (-73.8%)

Std Dev $205.29

Avg Norm Float 0.0698

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 20m

Oldest Output Price 150h 20m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

XM1014 | Zombie Offensive

—

Factory New

$2.88 Float: HIDDEN

PP-Bizon | Space Cat

—

Factory New

$5.23 Float: HIDDEN

USP-S | Ticket to Hell

—

Factory New

$5.75 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Zombie Offensive

—

Factory New

$5.89 Float: HIDDEN

USP-S | Ticket to Hell

—

Factory New

$13.53 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Zombie Offensive

—

Factory New

$15.31 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Zombie Offensive

—

Factory New

$16.49 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Derailment

—

Minimal Wear

$14.88 Float: HIDDEN

Tec-9 | Whiteout

—

Field-Tested

$22.73 Float: HIDDEN

Tec-9 | Whiteout

—

Field-Tested

$25.32 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 47S //TOTAL COST $128.01 //ASK PRICE EV $158.90 //BID PRICE EV $142.47 //ASK PROFIT $30.89 (+24.1%) //BID PROFIT $14.46 (+11.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $597.10 //VOLATILITY +160.4% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.06978,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-53e4dc76b3e5",
      "realistic_value": 33.537,
      "optimistic_value": 33.53,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Melondrama",
      "conservative_value": 33.44,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:26.493885Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53e4dc76b3e5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.06978,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-c1ded03e3025",
      "realistic_value": 39.4285,
      "optimistic_value": 39.39,
      "output_full_name": "FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement",
      "conservative_value": 39.19,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:23.352429Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c1ded03e3025.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.06978,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-335f1a313262",
      "realistic_value": 34.9155,
      "optimistic_value": 34.87,
      "output_full_name": "MP7 | Abyssal Apparition",
      "conservative_value": 34.84,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:05.385983Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-335f1a313262.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.06978,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-e7d48237eb0f",
      "realistic_value": 597.102,
      "optimistic_value": 554.78,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Hellish",
      "conservative_value": 524.1,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:32.488398Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e7d48237eb0f.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.06978,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9836cfa060f6",
      "realistic_value": 294.4405,
      "optimistic_value": 294.43,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush",
      "conservative_value": 258.53,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:56:36.220092Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9836cfa060f6.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_133bcf705d29a6b7efbdd74d",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 2.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
      "listing_id": "492724590627017241",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:30.687270Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
      "listing_id": "517494441497869774",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
      "name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:11.308299Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.75,
      "skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
      "listing_id": "520872035663958360",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
      "name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:29.326118Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.89,
      "skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
      "listing_id": "492724590627018501",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:30.687270Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 13.53,
      "skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
      "listing_id": "518620122759273664",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
      "name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:29.326118Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 15.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
      "listing_id": "492724590627019077",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:30.687270Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 16.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
      "listing_id": "492724590627019329",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:30.687270Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 14.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "listing_id": "515242588555243825",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:39.728353Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 22.73,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "492724590627185253",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:53.533258Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 25.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "525375740885109643",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:53.533258Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:7+collection-set-train-2025:3"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested	Hellish 15.0% $64.09 Latte Rush 15.0% $41.40 Melondrama 23.3% $8.95 Rapid Eye Movement 23.3% $8.95 Abyssal Apparition 23.3% $8.78	$64.09 +234.3%	$22.05 +15.0%	30.0%	+109.7%	$19.17	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear	Hellish 15.0% $138.17 Latte Rush 15.0% $122.85 Abyssal Apparition 23.3% $11.29 Melondrama 23.3% $11.15 Rapid Eye Movement 23.3% $11.13	$138.17 +216.6%	$46.99 +7.6%	30.0%	+125.6%	$43.65	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 25.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 16.7% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 16.7% $34.92 Melondrama 16.7% $33.54	$597.10 +218.5%	$240.87 +28.5%	50.0%	+123.3%	$187.46	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 20.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 20.0% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 20.0% $34.92 Melondrama 20.0% $33.54	$597.10 +281.1%	$199.88 +27.6%	40.0%	+141.9%	$156.69	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 30.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 30.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 13.3% $39.42 Abyssal Apparition 13.3% $34.92 Melondrama 13.3% $33.54	$597.10 +166.8%	$281.85 +25.9%	60.0%	+103.9%	$223.83	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 35.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 10.0% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 10.0% $34.92 Melondrama 10.0% $33.54	$597.10 +129.3%	$322.83 +24.0%	70.0%	+87.0%	$260.35	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear	Hellish 5.0% $138.17 Latte Rush 5.0% $122.85 Abyssal Apparition 30.0% $11.38 Rapid Eye Movement 30.0% $11.32 Melondrama 30.0% $11.15	$138.17 +613.0%	$23.21 +19.8%	10.0%	+185.0%	$19.38	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 6.7% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 6.7% $34.92 Melondrama 6.7% $33.54	$597.10 +94.7%	$363.81 +18.7%	40.0%	+69.3%	$306.60	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 10.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 10.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 26.7% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 26.7% $34.92 Melondrama 26.7% $33.54	$597.10 +495.4%	$117.92 +17.6%	20.0%	+176.9%	$100.28	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Train 2025 Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 45.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 45.0% $294.44 Rapid Eye Movement 3.3% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition 3.3% $34.92 Melondrama 3.3% $33.54	$597.10 +67.2%	$404.79 +13.4%	45.0%	+52.9%	$357.08	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.44 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Night Terror 10.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $0.94	$9.67 +179.6%	$4.50 +30.1%	50.0%	+95.0%	$3.46	—
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear	LongDog 20.0% $663.30 Nightwish 40.0% $117.09 Starlight Protector 40.0% $112.74	$663.30 +287.7%	$224.59 +31.3%	20.0%	+128.2%	$171.07	—