The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Resupply
1x $2.30
Sure Grip
1x $2.36
PC-GRN
1x $2.49
Run Run Run
2x $2.27
2A2F
2x $2.68
Late Night Transit
3x $2.83
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
23.3% $64.86
Derailment
23.3% $41.90
Charged Up
23.3% $22.67
Tosai
6.0% $4.31
Serpent Strike
6.0% $4.28
Rising Sun
6.0% $1.77
Max Win
$64.86 (+141.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$31.02 (+15.6%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+87.6%
Cost
$26.83
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $26.83
Ask Price EV $31.02 (+15.6%)
Bid Price EV $29.56 (+10.2%)
Ask Profit $4.19 (+15.6%)
Bid Profit $2.73 (+10.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.46 (+5.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.19
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.73
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $64.86 (+141.8%)
Worst Case $1.59 (-94.1%)
Volatility +87.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$26.55
Avg Loss -$15.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.59 (-94.1%)
Std Dev $23.49
Avg Norm Float 0.0957
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 150h 49m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Factory New
$2.49 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.69 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.83 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.87 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.99 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$3.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 45S //TOTAL COST $26.83 //ASK PRICE EV $31.02 //BID PRICE EV $29.56 //ASK PROFIT $4.19 (+15.6%) //BID PROFIT $2.73 (+10.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +87.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$64.86
+$38.03
+141.8%
$61.61
+$34.78
+129.6%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
23.3%
$41.90
+$15.07
+56.2%
$40.19
+$13.36
+49.8%
$1.71
4.1%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$22.67
-$4.16
-15.5%
$21.50
-$5.33
-19.9%
$1.17
5.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.31
-$22.52
-83.9%
$4.30
-$22.53
-84.0%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.28
-$22.55
-84.0%
$4.23
-$22.60
-84.2%
$0.05
1.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.77
-$25.06
-93.4%
$1.76
-$25.07
-93.4%
$0.01
0.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.67
-$25.16
-93.8%
$1.35
-$25.48
-95.0%
$0.32
19.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.59
-$25.24
-94.1%
$1.55
-$25.28
-94.2%
$0.04
2.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06701099999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 41.903999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 41.68,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 40.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:17:58.746071Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1499862,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.09573,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 22.666,
"optimistic_value": 22.61,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 21.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:04.523291Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.05456609999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.28,
"optimistic_value": 4.28,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 4.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:11.997448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.07648779135,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 1.6669999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T11:19:36.262895Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09573,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 1.7735,
"optimistic_value": 1.77,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 1.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:52.473049Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09099605577,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 1.5905,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 1.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:10.040666Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06701099999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.3134999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 4.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:00.235766Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_12eda69cf048b0d4018023a3",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "528753387757505925",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:49.232880Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "521997822481944714",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:34.538303Z"
},
{
"price": 2.49,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "523123940969034070",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Factory New)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:24.304249Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "514116741797213934",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:16.454491Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "519746241188969396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:33.850694Z"
},
{
"price": 2.69,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "523123940968972186",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:33.850694Z"
},
{
"price": 2.83,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "519746241188631932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:46.655004Z"
},
{
"price": 2.87,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "514116741796799430",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:46.655004Z"
},
{
"price": 2.99,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "514116688950627510",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:46.655004Z"
},
{
"price": 3.35,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "529879287551291472",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:16.454491Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:3+collection-set-train-2025:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.68 Charged Up 23.3% $7.44 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 6.0% $0.77 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $9.68 +104.7% | $5.88 +24.4% | 70.0% | +63.4% | $4.73 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Charged Up 23.3% $63.69 Derailment 23.3% $41.90 Rising Sun 6.0% $9.18 Wave Breaker 6.0% $8.80 Control 6.0% $7.98 | $64.86 +63.2% | $41.85 +5.3% | 70.0% | +52.4% | $39.74 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.68 Charged Up 16.7% $7.44 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 10.0% $0.77 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $9.68 +175.8% | $4.42 +25.8% | 50.0% | +95.9% | $3.51 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.45 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 8.0% $0.77 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $9.67 +131.4% | $5.15 +23.2% | 60.0% | +77.6% | $4.18 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.68 Charged Up 13.3% $7.44 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 12.0% $0.77 Control 12.0% $0.77 | $9.68 +223.7% | $3.68 +23.2% | 40.0% | +112.4% | $2.99 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $42.56 Charged Up 26.7% $22.67 Tosai 4.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 4.0% $1.80 | $64.86 +117.7% | $35.23 +18.2% | 53.3% | +68.2% | $29.79 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $42.56 Charged Up 10.0% $22.67 Tosai 14.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 14.0% $1.77 | $64.86 +406.4% | $14.88 +16.2% | 30.0% | +153.9% | $12.81 | — |
The Fever Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $41.90 Charged Up 6.7% $22.67 Tosai 16.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 16.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 16.0% $1.77 | $64.86 +565.9% | $10.81 +11.0% | 20.0% | +176.4% | $9.74 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Searing Rage  16.7% $50.78 Shinobu  16.7% $49.17 K.O. Factory  16.7% $34.39 | $597.10 +208.8% | $245.28 +26.8% | 50.0% | +117.6% | $193.38 | — |