The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Factory New +5.3%Field-Tested +24.4%Minimal Wear +15.6%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Sure Grip

2x $2.87

PC-GRN

1x $3.10

2A2F

3x $2.69

Run Run Run

2x $3.35

Green Line

2x $5.00

↓

Possible Outputs

Whiteout

23.3% $64.86

Charged Up

23.3% $63.69

Derailment

23.3% $41.90

Rising Sun

6.0% $9.18

Wave Breaker

6.0% $8.80

Control

6.0% $7.98

Max Win

$64.86 (+63.2%)

EV (ROI %)

$41.85 (+5.3%)

Win %

70.0%

Volatility

+61.8%

Cost

$39.74

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $39.74

Ask Price EV $41.85 (+5.3%)

Bid Price EV $39.43 (-0.8%)

Ask Profit $2.11 (+5.3%)

Bid Profit $-0.31 (-0.8%)

Liquidity Gap $2.42 (+6.1%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.11

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.31

Risk

Win Probability 70.0%

Loss Probability 30.0%

Best Case $64.86 (+63.2%)

Worst Case $4.28 (-89.2%)

Volatility +61.8%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%

Avg Win +$17.08

Avg Loss -$32.83

Bottom 5% Outcome $4.28 (-89.2%)

Std Dev $24.55

Avg Norm Float 0.0699

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 19m

Oldest Output Price 150h 49m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P2000 | Sure Grip

—

Factory New

$2.87 Float: HIDDEN

USP-S | PC-GRN

—

Factory New

$3.10 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Sure Grip

—

Factory New

$3.26 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$2.69 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Run Run Run

—

Minimal Wear

$3.35 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Run Run Run

—

Minimal Wear

$3.52 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$4.19 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Minimal Wear

$5.00 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$5.23 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Minimal Wear

$6.53 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 31S //TOTAL COST $39.74 //ASK PRICE EV $41.85 //BID PRICE EV $39.43 //ASK PROFIT $2.11 (+5.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.31 (-0.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +61.8% //

Possible Outputs · 8

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.048951,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 41.903999999999996,
      "optimistic_value": 41.68,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 40.19,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:17:58.746071Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.12573420000000002,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 64.8635,
      "optimistic_value": 64.79,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 61.61,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.06993,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 63.693,
      "optimistic_value": 62.72,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 58.44,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:08.587654Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.0398601,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
      "realistic_value": 4.28,
      "optimistic_value": 4.28,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
      "conservative_value": 4.23,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:11.997448Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.05587372035,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
      "realistic_value": 7.9835,
      "optimistic_value": 7.98,
      "output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
      "conservative_value": 7.96,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:22.602610Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.06993,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
      "realistic_value": 9.1805,
      "optimistic_value": 9.17,
      "output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
      "conservative_value": 8.8,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:17.054530Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.06647189157000001,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
      "realistic_value": 8.798,
      "optimistic_value": 8.77,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
      "conservative_value": 8.74,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:32.391901Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.048951,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
      "realistic_value": 4.3134999999999994,
      "optimistic_value": 4.31,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
      "conservative_value": 4.3,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:00.235766Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_12eda69cf048b0d4018023a3",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 2.87,
      "skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
      "listing_id": "502857524062903528",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:34.538303Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.1,
      "skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
      "listing_id": "528753387757176093",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Factory New)",
      "name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:24.304249Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
      "listing_id": "506235223783511820",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:34.538303Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "523123940968972186",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:33.850694Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
      "listing_id": "529879287551291472",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:16.454491Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
      "listing_id": "529879287551292084",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:16.454491Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "642467916639686441",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:33.850694Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "508487189340410930",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:37.971627Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "528753335313592389",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:33.850694Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 6.53,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "507361289453385697",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:37.971627Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:3+collection-set-train-2025:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 23.3% $9.68 Charged Up 23.3% $7.44 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 6.0% $0.77 Control 6.0% $0.77	$9.68 +104.7%	$5.88 +24.4%	70.0%	+63.4%	$4.73	—
The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $41.90 Charged Up 23.3% $22.67 Tosai 6.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 6.0% $1.77	$64.86 +141.8%	$31.02 +15.6%	46.7%	+78.9%	$26.83	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 16.7% $9.68 Charged Up 16.7% $7.44 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 10.0% $0.77 Control 10.0% $0.77	$9.68 +175.8%	$4.42 +25.8%	50.0%	+95.9%	$3.51	—
The Fever Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.45 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 8.0% $0.77 Control 8.0% $0.77	$9.67 +131.4%	$5.15 +23.2%	60.0%	+77.6%	$4.18	—
The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 13.3% $9.68 Charged Up 13.3% $7.44 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 12.0% $0.77 Control 12.0% $0.77	$9.68 +223.7%	$3.68 +23.2%	40.0%	+112.4%	$2.99	—
The Fever Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $42.56 Charged Up 26.7% $22.67 Tosai 4.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 4.0% $1.80	$64.86 +117.7%	$35.23 +18.2%	53.3%	+68.2%	$29.79	—
The Fever Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $42.56 Charged Up 10.0% $22.67 Tosai 14.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 14.0% $1.77	$64.86 +406.4%	$14.88 +16.2%	30.0%	+153.9%	$12.81	—
The Fever Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $41.90 Charged Up 6.7% $22.67 Tosai 16.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 16.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 16.0% $1.77	$64.86 +565.9%	$10.81 +11.0%	20.0%	+176.4%	$9.74	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 25.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 16.7% $50.78 Shinobu 16.7% $49.17 K.O. Factory 16.7% $34.39	$597.10 +208.8%	$245.28 +26.8%	50.0%	+117.6%	$193.38	—