The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Memorial
2x $0.13
Sure Grip
1x $0.14
Late Night Transit
3x $0.48
Green Line
2x $0.60
Run Run Run
1x $0.71
2A2F
1x $0.73
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
23.3% $9.67
Charged Up
23.3% $7.46
Derailment
23.3% $7.13
Rising Sun
6.0% $0.79
Serpent Strike
6.0% $0.77
Control
6.0% $0.77
Max Win
$9.67 (+97.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.89 (+20.0%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+71.1%
Cost
$4.91
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.91
Ask Price EV $5.89 (+20.0%)
Bid Price EV $5.65 (+15.2%)
Ask Profit $0.98 (+20.0%)
Bid Profit $0.74 (+15.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+4.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.98
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.74
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $9.67 (+97.0%)
Worst Case $0.71 (-85.5%)
Volatility +71.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$3.18
Avg Loss -$4.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.71 (-85.5%)
Std Dev $3.49
Avg Norm Float 0.3390
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 149h 6m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Field-Tested
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Field-Tested
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Field-Tested
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 16S //TOTAL COST $4.91 //ASK PRICE EV $5.89 //BID PRICE EV $5.65 //ASK PROFIT $0.98 (+20.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.74 (+15.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $9.67 //VOLATILITY +71.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$9.67
+$4.76
+97.0%
$9.66
+$4.75
+96.7%
$0.01
0.1%
—
BIG WIN
23.3%
$7.46
+$2.55
+52.0%
$7.29
+$2.38
+48.5%
$0.17
2.3%
—
WIN
23.3%
$7.13
+$2.22
+45.2%
$6.40
+$1.49
+30.3%
$0.73
10.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.79
-$4.12
-83.9%
$0.72
-$4.19
-85.3%
$0.07
8.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.77
-$4.14
-84.2%
$0.66
-$4.25
-86.6%
$0.11
14.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.77
-$4.14
-84.3%
$0.66
-$4.25
-86.6%
$0.11
14.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.74
-$4.17
-84.9%
$0.69
-$4.22
-85.9%
$0.05
6.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.71
-$4.20
-85.5%
$0.70
-$4.21
-85.7%
$0.01
1.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.23731399999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.3786788,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 9.6735,
"optimistic_value": 9.67,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 9.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:48.139357Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.33902,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 7.4645,
"optimistic_value": 7.44,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 7.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:28.816172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19324139999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 0.774,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.543846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.2708752849,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 0.77,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T06:54:02.871108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.33902,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 0.7905,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:22:23.659961Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.32225512198,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:33:10.338382Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.23731399999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 0.74,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:17.031420Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_12eda69cf048b0d4018023a3",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "524249840859076095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:58.949184Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "507361342333951621",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:31:05.691081Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "506235223785210480",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:58.949184Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "500605942755567179",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:29.027676Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "510739041953634622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:29.027676Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "527627540537546492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:06.821766Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "498354142899910651",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:06.821766Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "492724590627276585",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:53.040503Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "500605942755577475",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:28.454407Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "500605942755566315",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:47.872448Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:3+collection-set-train-2025:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $42.56 Charged Up 23.3% $22.79 Tosai 6.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 6.0% $1.80 | $64.86 +148.7% | $31.19 +19.6% | 46.7% | +81.4% | $26.08 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Charged Up 23.3% $63.69 Derailment 23.3% $42.56 Rising Sun 6.0% $9.18 Wave Breaker 6.0% $8.82 Control 6.0% $7.99 | $64.86 +69.2% | $41.99 +9.5% | 70.0% | +54.2% | $38.34 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.46 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 10.0% $0.77 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $9.67 +175.6% | $4.42 +26.0% | 50.0% | +95.9% | $3.51 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.53 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 8.0% $0.77 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $9.67 +135.4% | $5.17 +25.8% | 60.0% | +79.1% | $4.11 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.44 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 12.0% $0.77 Control 12.0% $0.77 | $9.67 +219.3% | $3.68 +21.6% | 40.0% | +110.9% | $3.03 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $42.56 Charged Up 26.7% $22.67 Tosai 4.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 4.0% $1.80 | $64.86 +117.7% | $35.23 +18.2% | 53.3% | +68.2% | $29.79 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $43.71 Charged Up 10.0% $22.86 Tosai 14.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 14.0% $1.80 | $64.86 +396.3% | $15.06 +15.2% | 30.0% | +151.7% | $13.07 | — |
The Fever Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Derailment 6.7% $14.78 Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Charged Up 6.7% $7.46 Serpent Strike 16.0% $1.49 Tosai 16.0% $1.30 Rising Sun 16.0% $0.79 | $14.78 +464.2% | $2.94 +12.2% | 20.0% | +149.0% | $2.62 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  20.0% $294.44 Searing Rage  20.0% $50.78 Shinobu  20.0% $49.17 K.O. Factory  20.0% $34.39 | $597.10 +279.7% | $205.18 +30.5% | 40.0% | +139.0% | $157.26 | — |