The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Deep Relief
3x $0.80
Fragment
2x $0.29
RMX
1x $0.36
Bock Blocks
2x $0.43
Fusion
2x $0.54
↓
Possible Outputs
Exoskeleton
6.0% $17.41
Electrum
14.0% $10.69
Dezastre
6.0% $9.56
Parallax
6.0% $7.64
Clear Polymer
6.0% $6.98
Gold Bismuth
6.0% $6.42
Max Win
$17.41 (+190.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.57 (+9.5%)
Win %
58.0%
Volatility
+64.4%
Cost
$6.00
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $6.00
Ask Price EV $6.57 (+9.5%)
Bid Price EV $5.51 (-8.2%)
Ask Profit $0.57 (+9.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.49 (-8.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.06 (+17.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.57
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.49
Risk
Win Probability 58.0%
Loss Probability 42.0%
Best Case $17.41 (+190.2%)
Worst Case $2.94 (-51.1%)
Volatility +64.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 42.0%
Avg Win +$3.02
Avg Loss -$2.82
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.94 (-51.1%)
Std Dev $3.86
Avg Norm Float 0.3568
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 155h 1m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Deep Relief
—
Well-Worn
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Deep Relief
—
Well-Worn
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Deep Relief
—
Field-Tested
$1.09 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 30M 14S //TOTAL COST $6.00 //ASK PRICE EV $6.57 //BID PRICE EV $5.51 //ASK PROFIT $0.57 (+9.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.49 (-8.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 58.0% //BEST CASE $17.41 //VOLATILITY +64.4% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.0%
$17.41
+$11.41
+190.2%
$14.88
+$8.88
+148.0%
$2.53
14.6%
—
BIG WIN
14.0%
$10.69
+$4.69
+78.2%
$9.15
+$3.15
+52.5%
$1.54
14.4%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
6.0%
$9.56
+$3.56
+59.3%
$7.09
+$1.09
+18.2%
$2.47
25.8%
—
WIN
6.0%
$7.64
+$1.64
+27.3%
$6.24
+$0.24
+4.0%
$1.40
18.3%
—
WIN
6.0%
$6.98
+$0.98
+16.3%
$6.14
+$0.14
+2.3%
$0.84
12.0%
—
PAPER WIN
6.0%
$6.42
+$0.42
+7.0%
$5.14
-$0.86
-14.3%
$1.28
19.9%
—
PAPER WIN
14.0%
$6.12
+$0.12
+1.9%
$4.98
-$1.02
-17.0%
$1.14
18.6%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$3.46
-$2.54
-42.3%
$2.90
-$3.10
-51.7%
$0.56
16.2%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$3.14
-$2.86
-47.7%
$2.76
-$3.24
-54.0%
$0.38
12.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.94
-$3.06
-51.1%
$2.61
-$3.39
-56.5%
$0.33
11.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-27|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-27"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.35681,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 6.117,
"optimistic_value": 6.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 4.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.545500Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.35681,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.4605,
"optimistic_value": 3.45,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 2.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:22.737622Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.35681,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 10.693000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:48.376233Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.35681,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 2.9364999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 2.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:21.126722Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.35681,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.1365,
"optimistic_value": 3.07,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:07.305052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.35681,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a89bff508437",
"realistic_value": 17.413999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 17.33,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exoskeleton",
"conservative_value": 14.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Operation Broken Fang Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:22:45.908738Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a89bff508437.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.35681,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f6e2834cc427",
"realistic_value": 9.55825,
"optimistic_value": 9.35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Dezastre",
"conservative_value": 7.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Operation Broken Fang Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T20:37:55.757179Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f6e2834cc427.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.35681,
"output_skin_id": "skin-be0f8a429ce6",
"realistic_value": 6.9785,
"optimistic_value": 6.87,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Clear Polymer",
"conservative_value": 6.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Operation Broken Fang Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:02.947562Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-be0f8a429ce6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.35681,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aeb0591ce152",
"realistic_value": 7.640000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 7.36,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Parallax",
"conservative_value": 6.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Operation Broken Fang Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:33:56.489570Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aeb0591ce152.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.249767,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b154f1229365",
"realistic_value": 6.418,
"optimistic_value": 6.32,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Operation Broken Fang Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:47:55.588752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b154f1229365.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_10414737058f580ad718111c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-4c1d61428041",
"listing_id": "525375688036296367",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Deep Relief (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M249 | Deep Relief",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c1d61428041.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:17.333387Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-4c1d61428041",
"listing_id": "635712445338173071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Deep Relief (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M249 | Deep Relief",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c1d61428041.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:17.333387Z"
},
{
"price": 1.09,
"skin_id": "skin-4c1d61428041",
"listing_id": "524249840858917947",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Deep Relief (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Deep Relief",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c1d61428041.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:10.540851Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "515242641502643929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:22.466070Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "506235389470454088",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:22.466070Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "494976443343282846",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:32.527360Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "521998040963336874",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:38.533199Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "509613036859925607",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:38.533199Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "641342016844184047",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:17:55.920787Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "511864723318980237",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:17:55.920787Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-27:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Exoskeleton 6.0% $70.99 Dezastre 6.0% $57.06 Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Parallax 6.0% $42.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Clear Polymer 6.0% $29.81 | $70.99 +189.5% | $31.67 +29.2% | 58.0% | +56.5% | $24.52 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Exoskeleton 4.0% $70.99 Dezastre 4.0% $57.06 Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Parallax 4.0% $42.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Clear Polymer 4.0% $29.81 | $70.99 +210.1% | $29.77 +30.1% | 52.0% | +58.4% | $22.89 | — |
The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Exoskeleton 8.0% $70.99 Dezastre 8.0% $57.06 Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Parallax 8.0% $42.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Clear Polymer 8.0% $29.81 | $70.99 +163.8% | $33.63 +25.0% | 56.0% | +52.6% | $26.91 | — |
The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Exoskeleton 10.0% $70.99 Dezastre 10.0% $57.06 Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Parallax 10.0% $42.27 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Clear Polymer 10.0% $29.81 | $70.99 +142.0% | $35.54 +21.2% | 60.0% | +49.0% | $29.33 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 Cyber Security  3.3% $215.76 Monster Mashup  3.3% $183.16 Fairy Tale  3.3% $124.07 Kintsugi  30.0% $60.46 Deathgaze  30.0% $58.67 | $290.04 +158.6% | $140.18 +25.0% | 40.0% | +93.1% | $112.16 | — |