The Recoil Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Roadblock
2x $0.29
Drop Me
1x $0.42
Hideout
2x $0.29
Irezumi
2x $0.31
Motorized
1x $0.35
Dark Sigil
1x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Block-18
14.0% $8.90
Etch Lord
14.0% $4.43
Analog Input
14.0% $4.13
Just Smile
14.0% $3.32
Downtown
6.0% $3.19
Hybrid
14.0% $2.65
Max Win
$8.90 (+160.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.98 (+16.5%)
Win %
42.0%
Volatility
+62.7%
Cost
$3.42
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.42
Ask Price EV $3.98 (+16.5%)
Bid Price EV $3.53 (+3.2%)
Ask Profit $0.56 (+16.5%)
Bid Profit $0.11 (+3.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.45 (+13.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.56
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.11
Risk
Win Probability 42.0%
Loss Probability 58.0%
Best Case $8.90 (+160.1%)
Worst Case $1.78 (-47.9%)
Volatility +62.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 24.0%
Avg Win +$2.40
Avg Loss -$0.76
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.78 (-47.9%)
Std Dev $2.14
Avg Norm Float 0.1031
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 47h 2m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Drop Me
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 16M 33S //TOTAL COST $3.42 //ASK PRICE EV $3.98 //BID PRICE EV $3.53 //ASK PROFIT $0.56 (+16.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.11 (+3.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 42.0% //BEST CASE $8.90 //VOLATILITY +62.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$8.90
+$5.48
+160.1%
$7.77
+$4.35
+127.2%
$1.13
12.7%
—
WIN
14.0%
$4.43
+$1.01
+29.6%
$3.77
+$0.35
+10.2%
$0.66
15.0%
—
WIN
14.0%
$4.13
+$0.71
+20.7%
$3.76
+$0.34
+9.9%
$0.37
8.9%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$3.32
-$0.10
-2.9%
$2.85
-$0.57
-16.7%
$0.47
14.2%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$3.19
-$0.23
-6.7%
$2.88
-$0.54
-15.8%
$0.31
9.7%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.65
-$0.77
-22.5%
$2.60
-$0.82
-24.0%
$0.05
1.9%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.47
-$0.95
-27.7%
$2.12
-$1.30
-38.0%
$0.35
14.3%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.41
-$1.01
-29.6%
$2.15
-$1.27
-37.1%
$0.26
10.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.88
-$1.54
-44.9%
$1.72
-$1.70
-49.7%
$0.16
8.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.78
-$1.64
-47.9%
$1.54
-$1.88
-55.0%
$0.24
13.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10307,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:23.045771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06925015625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10307,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.434,
"optimistic_value": 4.42,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:41.101680Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10307,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.3205,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:08.866053Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0637859002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.1265,
"optimistic_value": 4.06,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:23.384975Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.10307,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 2.409,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 2.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:25:51.829968Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0669955,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.19,
"optimistic_value": 3.19,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 2.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T16:38:03.723016Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.07214899999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 1.7815,
"optimistic_value": 1.75,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:25:47.008593Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.10307,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 2.4735,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 2.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:03:59.391044Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.07214899999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 1.8835,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 1.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:34.494695Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_08e38ce9cce0ef9e03cc9406",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "491598743581504106",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:33.124451Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "506234592365125932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:33.124451Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-128166c2642e",
"listing_id": "493850490549489772",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Drop Me",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-128166c2642e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:28.417111Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "499480042829003797",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:04.823090Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "492724643508413757",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:39.629924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "520872088106698692",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:04.823090Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "517494441499079446",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:39.629924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:43.162031Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:41.601363Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:36.370297Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-31:3+collection-set-community-33:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Etch Lord 14.0% $2.37 Analog Input 14.0% $1.90 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.88 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.78 Downtown 6.0% $1.66 | $4.19 +119.4% | $2.06 +7.7% | 28.0% | +42.9% | $1.91 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.43 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.32 Hybrid 18.0% $2.65 Crazy 8 2.0% $2.47 Flora Carnivora 2.0% $2.41 | $4.43 +65.4% | $3.17 +18.5% | 54.0% | +27.6% | $2.68 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.43 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Hybrid 16.0% $2.65 Crazy 8 4.0% $2.47 Flora Carnivora 4.0% $2.41 | $4.43 +70.5% | $3.05 +17.3% | 64.0% | +29.4% | $2.60 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 12.0% $8.90 Dragon Tech 8.0% $4.54 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Vent Rush 8.0% $4.34 Analog Input 12.0% $4.13 Just Smile 12.0% $3.34 | $8.90 +138.5% | $4.17 +11.9% | 52.0% | +44.7% | $3.73 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $4.43 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Just Smile 10.0% $3.32 Hybrid 10.0% $2.65 Crazy 8 10.0% $2.47 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $2.41 | $4.43 +78.8% | $2.68 +7.9% | 40.0% | +31.0% | $2.48 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Ice Coaled  16.7% $16.45 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Olympus  16.7% $8.52 Kiss♥Love  16.7% $7.21 Visions  16.7% $5.94 | $23.51 +110.1% | $12.75 +14.0% | 50.0% | +55.2% | $11.19 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×9+The Kilowatt Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  5.0% $228.37 Printstream  45.0% $177.28 Chrome Cannon  5.0% $64.35 Chromatic Aberration  45.0% $51.36 | $228.37 +110.8% | $117.52 +8.5% | 50.0% | +60.8% | $108.33 | — |