The Recoil Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Monkeyflage
2x $0.16
Poly Mag
1x $0.19
Motorized
3x $0.16
Hideout
2x $0.19
Slag
1x $0.19
Light Box
1x $0.21
↓
Possible Outputs
Block-18
14.0% $4.19
Etch Lord
14.0% $2.35
Dragon Tech
6.0% $1.91
Analog Input
14.0% $1.90
Vent Rush
6.0% $1.82
Downtown
6.0% $1.66
Max Win
$4.19 (+126.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.06 (+11.2%)
Win %
48.0%
Volatility
+50.4%
Cost
$1.85
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.85
Ask Price EV $2.06 (+11.2%)
Bid Price EV $1.88 (+1.7%)
Ask Profit $0.21 (+11.2%)
Bid Profit $0.03 (+1.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.18 (+9.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.03
Risk
Win Probability 48.0%
Loss Probability 52.0%
Best Case $4.19 (+126.5%)
Worst Case $0.95 (-48.4%)
Volatility +50.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 12.0%
Avg Win +$0.85
Avg Loss -$0.39
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.95 (-48.4%)
Std Dev $0.93
Avg Norm Float 0.2128
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 20h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Monkeyflage
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Monkeyflage
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 07S //TOTAL COST $1.85 //ASK PRICE EV $2.06 //BID PRICE EV $1.88 //ASK PROFIT $0.21 (+11.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.03 (+1.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 48.0% //BEST CASE $4.19 //VOLATILITY +50.4% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
14.0%
$4.19
+$2.34
+126.5%
$3.88
+$2.03
+109.7%
$0.31
7.4%
—
WIN
14.0%
$2.35
+$0.50
+26.9%
$2.07
+$0.22
+11.9%
$0.28
11.8%
—
PAPER WIN
6.0%
$1.91
+$0.06
+3.1%
$1.72
-$0.13
-7.0%
$0.19
9.8%
—
SMALL WIN
14.0%
$1.90
+$0.05
+2.9%
$1.85
+$0.00
+0.0%
$0.05
2.9%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$1.82
-$0.03
-1.6%
$1.54
-$0.31
-16.8%
$0.28
15.4%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$1.66
-$0.19
-10.1%
$1.40
-$0.45
-24.3%
$0.26
15.9%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$1.56
-$0.29
-15.7%
$1.43
-$0.42
-22.7%
$0.13
8.3%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$1.47
-$0.38
-20.5%
$1.40
-$0.45
-24.3%
$0.07
4.8%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$1.18
-$0.67
-36.0%
$1.01
-$0.84
-45.4%
$0.17
14.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.95
-$0.90
-48.4%
$0.89
-$0.96
-51.9%
$0.06
6.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.21277,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 1.47,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 1.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:24.938683Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14295484375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.21277,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 2.347,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 2.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:34.876512Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.21277,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 1.56,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 1.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:04:39.434678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.13167484219999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9044999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:48.600665Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21277,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.954,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:05.072720Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.1383005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 1.664,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 1.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:26.013571Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.148939,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 1.8205,
"optimistic_value": 1.81,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:39:48.106795Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21277,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 1.1835,
"optimistic_value": 1.18,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:18.947598Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.148939,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 1.9069999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.9,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 1.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:21.434181Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_08e38ce9cce0ef9e03cc9406",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf8d25d8a85c",
"listing_id": "503983642533985831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Monkeyflage",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf8d25d8a85c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:40.512601Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf8d25d8a85c",
"listing_id": "510738823410791686",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Monkeyflage",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf8d25d8a85c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:40.512601Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "528752590517834121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:34.306903Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "506235442368982716",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:16.705226Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "525374890948082251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:16.705226Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "507360492276906205",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:07.421849Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "506235389470544232",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:16.705226Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "496101493247435159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:02.484418Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "514116523129581066",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:07.421849Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116741798137334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:59.300666Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-31:3+collection-set-community-33:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 14.0% $8.90 Dragon Tech 6.0% $4.68 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Vent Rush 6.0% $4.34 Analog Input 14.0% $4.03 Just Smile 14.0% $3.34 | $8.90 +135.4% | $4.30 +13.7% | 54.0% | +46.7% | $3.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.46 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.35 Hybrid 18.0% $2.65 Flora Carnivora 2.0% $2.50 Crazy 8 2.0% $2.40 | $4.46 +67.0% | $3.19 +19.3% | 54.0% | +27.8% | $2.67 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.43 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.32 Hybrid 16.0% $2.65 Flora Carnivora 4.0% $2.50 Crazy 8 4.0% $2.48 | $4.43 +67.8% | $3.05 +15.7% | 64.0% | +28.7% | $2.64 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 12.0% $8.90 Dragon Tech 8.0% $4.54 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.43 Vent Rush 8.0% $4.34 Analog Input 12.0% $4.13 Just Smile 12.0% $3.32 | $8.90 +143.1% | $4.17 +13.9% | 52.0% | +45.7% | $3.66 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 10.0% $8.90 Dragon Tech 10.0% $4.76 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Vent Rush 10.0% $4.34 Analog Input 10.0% $4.03 Just Smile 10.0% $3.34 | $8.90 +143.8% | $4.06 +11.1% | 50.0% | +43.0% | $3.65 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Ice Coaled  16.7% $16.45 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Olympus  16.7% $8.53 Kiss♥Love  16.7% $7.11 Visions  16.7% $6.05 | $23.51 +114.3% | $12.76 +16.3% | 50.0% | +56.3% | $10.97 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×9+The Kilowatt Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  5.0% $228.37 Printstream  45.0% $177.28 Chrome Cannon  5.0% $64.35 Chromatic Aberration  45.0% $51.36 | $228.37 +113.8% | $117.52 +10.0% | 50.0% | +61.6% | $106.80 | — |