The Recoil Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Drop Me
2x $0.42
Destroyer
1x $1.43
Motorized
1x $0.35
Dark Sigil
2x $0.36
Slag
1x $0.37
Dezastre
1x $0.61
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
14.0% $13.06
Crazy 8
6.0% $9.52
Just Smile
14.0% $9.31
Flora Carnivora
6.0% $8.94
Block-18
14.0% $8.90
Hybrid
14.0% $7.89
Max Win
$13.06 (+62.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.89 (-1.9%)
Win %
54.0%
Volatility
+37.7%
Cost
$8.04
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.04
Ask Price EV $7.89 (-1.9%)
Bid Price EV $7.03 (-12.5%)
Ask Profit $-0.15 (-1.9%)
Bid Profit $-1.01 (-12.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.85 (+10.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.15
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.01
Risk
Win Probability 54.0%
Loss Probability 46.0%
Best Case $13.06 (+62.4%)
Worst Case $3.19 (-60.3%)
Volatility +37.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$2.12
Avg Loss -$2.82
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.19 (-60.3%)
Std Dev $3.03
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 48h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Drop Me
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Drop Me
—
Factory New
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Factory New
$1.56 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 46S //TOTAL COST $8.04 //ASK PRICE EV $7.89 //BID PRICE EV $7.03 //ASK PROFIT $-0.15 (-1.9%) //BID PROFIT $-1.01 (-12.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 54.0% //BEST CASE $13.06 //VOLATILITY +37.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$13.06
+$5.02
+62.4%
$12.03
+$3.99
+49.6%
$1.03
7.9%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.52
+$1.48
+18.4%
$7.99
-$0.05
-0.6%
$1.53
16.1%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$9.31
+$1.27
+15.8%
$7.84
-$0.20
-2.5%
$1.47
15.8%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$8.94
+$0.90
+11.2%
$8.07
+$0.03
+0.4%
$0.87
9.7%
—
PAPER WIN
14.0%
$8.90
+$0.86
+10.7%
$7.77
-$0.27
-3.4%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$7.89
-$0.15
-1.9%
$7.43
-$0.61
-7.6%
$0.46
5.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.68
-$3.36
-41.8%
$4.22
-$3.82
-47.5%
$0.46
9.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.34
-$3.70
-46.1%
$3.45
-$4.59
-57.1%
$0.88
20.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$4.03
-$4.01
-49.9%
$3.76
-$4.28
-53.2%
$0.27
6.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.19
-$4.85
-60.3%
$2.88
-$5.16
-64.2%
$0.31
9.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:28:57.736585Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.046937187500000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:28:58.626471Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0432335596,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.028,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:11.593982Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 8.94,
"optimistic_value": 8.8,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 8.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:22.177819Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.045409000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.19,
"optimistic_value": 3.19,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 2.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T16:38:03.723016Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.048902,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 4.335,
"optimistic_value": 4.16,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 3.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:11.649175Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 9.5195,
"optimistic_value": 9.46,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 7.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T15:48:41.344498Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.048902,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 4.680499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 4.6,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 4.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:46.871075Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_08e38ce9cce0ef9e03cc9406",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-128166c2642e",
"listing_id": "493850490549489772",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Drop Me",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-128166c2642e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:17.016369Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-128166c2642e",
"listing_id": "500605942756454975",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Drop Me",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-128166c2642e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:31:50.251144Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "492724538180762805",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:53.513361Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:07.728597Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:28.744705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:43.994743Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:24.397487Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:58.222526Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:06.377160Z"
},
{
"price": 1.56,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "527627322002854856",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:26.955101Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-31:3+collection-set-community-33:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 14.0% $8.90 Dragon Tech 6.0% $4.68 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Vent Rush 6.0% $4.34 Analog Input 14.0% $4.03 Just Smile 14.0% $3.34 | $8.90 +135.4% | $4.30 +13.7% | 54.0% | +46.7% | $3.78 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Etch Lord 14.0% $2.35 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.91 Analog Input 14.0% $1.90 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.82 Downtown 6.0% $1.66 | $4.19 +126.5% | $2.06 +11.2% | 48.0% | +44.1% | $1.85 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.46 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.35 Hybrid 18.0% $2.65 Flora Carnivora 2.0% $2.50 Crazy 8 2.0% $2.40 | $4.46 +67.0% | $3.19 +19.3% | 54.0% | +27.8% | $2.67 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.43 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.32 Hybrid 16.0% $2.65 Flora Carnivora 4.0% $2.50 Crazy 8 4.0% $2.48 | $4.43 +67.8% | $3.05 +15.7% | 64.0% | +28.7% | $2.64 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 12.0% $8.90 Dragon Tech 8.0% $4.54 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.43 Vent Rush 8.0% $4.34 Analog Input 12.0% $4.13 Just Smile 12.0% $3.32 | $8.90 +143.1% | $4.17 +13.9% | 52.0% | +45.7% | $3.66 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 10.0% $8.90 Dragon Tech 10.0% $4.76 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Vent Rush 10.0% $4.34 Analog Input 10.0% $4.03 Just Smile 10.0% $3.34 | $8.90 +143.8% | $4.06 +11.1% | 50.0% | +43.0% | $3.65 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Ice Coaled  16.7% $16.45 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Olympus  16.7% $8.53 Kiss♥Love  16.7% $7.11 Visions  16.7% $6.05 | $23.51 +114.3% | $12.76 +16.3% | 50.0% | +56.3% | $10.97 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×9+The Kilowatt Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  5.0% $228.37 Printstream  45.0% $177.28 Chrome Cannon  5.0% $64.35 Chromatic Aberration  45.0% $51.36 | $228.37 +113.8% | $117.52 +10.0% | 50.0% | +61.6% | $106.80 | — |