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The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Factory New +5.1%Field-Tested +22.7%Minimal Wear +9.8%Well-Worn +3.8%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Bock Blocks
M249 | Bock Blocks
2x $0.23
Fragment
UMP-45 | Fragment
3x $0.41
RMX
PP-Bizon | RMX
2x $0.50
Red Tide
P250 | Red Tide
2x $0.64
Shredded
MP9 | Shredded
1x $0.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
10.0% $15.50
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
14.0% $7.00
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
10.0% $6.50
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
10.0% $5.42
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
14.0% $5.02
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
14.0% $3.34
Max Win
$15.50 (+194.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.77 (+9.8%)
Win %
44.0%
Volatility
+67.4%
Cost
$5.26
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.26
Ask Price EV $5.77 (+9.8%)
Bid Price EV $5.30 (+0.8%)
Ask Profit $0.51 (+9.8%)
Bid Profit $0.04 (+0.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.47 (+9.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.51
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.04
Risk
Win Probability 44.0%
Loss Probability 56.0%
Best Case $15.50 (+194.6%)
Worst Case $3.12 (-40.7%)
Volatility +67.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 42.0%
Avg Win +$3.20
Avg Loss -$1.60
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.12 (-40.7%)
Std Dev $3.55
Avg Norm Float 0.1491
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 12m
Oldest Output Price 155h 11m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Field-Tested
P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Field-Tested
P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 04M 19S //TOTAL COST $5.26 //ASK PRICE EV $5.77 //BID PRICE EV $5.30 //ASK PROFIT $0.51 (+9.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.04 (+0.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 44.0% //BEST CASE $15.50 //VOLATILITY +67.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.13999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.14908,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
      "realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
      "optimistic_value": 4.95,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
      "conservative_value": 3.97,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.14908,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "realistic_value": 3.344,
      "optimistic_value": 3.33,
      "output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "conservative_value": 3.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:25.658034Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.14908,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
      "realistic_value": 6.997,
      "optimistic_value": 6.99,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
      "conservative_value": 5.93,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.14908,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "realistic_value": 3.1735,
      "optimistic_value": 3.17,
      "output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "conservative_value": 3.14,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:52.869026Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.14908,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "realistic_value": 3.12,
      "optimistic_value": 3.12,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "conservative_value": 3.1,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:52.739380Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.11180999999999999,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
      "realistic_value": 15.4975,
      "optimistic_value": 15.27,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
      "conservative_value": 14.49,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:30.576620Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.0998836,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
      "realistic_value": 6.502,
      "optimistic_value": 6.39,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
      "conservative_value": 6.18,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:31.874331Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.08944799999999999,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
      "realistic_value": 5.4195,
      "optimistic_value": 5.36,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
      "conservative_value": 5.2,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:45:17.196414Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_08d81fed63ba922271d4cc74",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
      "listing_id": "510739041955442182",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:13:02.095145Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
      "listing_id": "503983642533878695",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:13:02.095145Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
      "listing_id": "490472843633195751",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
      "listing_id": "526501640651263541",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
      "listing_id": "515242641502612789",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:22:54.586680Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.58,
      "skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
      "listing_id": "519746188259337632",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:22:54.586680Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.66,
      "skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
      "listing_id": "491598743580519002",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.64,
      "skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
      "listing_id": "505109437007054864",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P250 | Red Tide",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:14:19.386177Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.72,
      "skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
      "listing_id": "526501535292841697",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P250 | Red Tide",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:14:19.386177Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.8,
      "skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
      "listing_id": "493850543433108496",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Shredded",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:48.925319Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:7+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:3"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
10.0% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
10.0% $6.50
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
10.0% $5.42
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
14.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
14.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
14.0% $2.19
$15.50
+322.3%
$4.50
+22.7%
44.0%+101.1%$3.67—
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
10.0% $32.23
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
14.0% $19.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
10.0% $16.71
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
10.0% $15.10
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
14.0% $12.97
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
14.0% $11.06
$32.23
+120.9%
$15.33
+5.1%
44.0%+40.3%$14.59—
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
10.0% $4.87
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
14.0% $3.09
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
10.0% $2.97
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
10.0% $2.08
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
14.0% $2.02
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
14.0% $1.98
$4.87
+112.6%
$2.38
+3.8%
34.0%+38.4%$2.29—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
20.0% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
20.0% $6.64
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
20.0% $5.42
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
8.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
8.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
8.0% $2.19
$15.50
+216.3%
$6.53
+33.2%
60.0%+90.0%$4.90—
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
16.7% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
16.7% $6.63
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
16.7% $5.41
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
10.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
10.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
10.0% $2.19
$15.50
+245.9%
$5.85
+30.6%
50.0%+95.3%$4.48—
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
23.3% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
23.3% $6.64
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
23.3% $5.42
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
6.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
6.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
6.0% $2.19
$15.50
+177.2%
$7.19
+28.6%
46.7%+80.3%$5.59—
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
26.7% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
26.7% $6.64
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
26.7% $5.42
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
4.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
4.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
4.0% $2.19
$15.50
+149.2%
$7.86
+26.3%
53.3%+72.7%$6.22—
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
13.3% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
13.3% $6.50
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
13.3% $5.42
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
12.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
12.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
12.0% $2.19
$15.50
+278.0%
$5.17
+26.0%
52.0%+98.6%$4.10—
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
30.0% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
30.0% $6.64
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
30.0% $5.42
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
2.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
2.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
2.0% $2.19
$15.50
+119.8%
$8.52
+20.8%
30.0%+64.1%$7.05—
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
6.7% $15.50
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
16.0% $7.00
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
6.7% $6.64
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
6.7% $5.42
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
16.0% $5.02
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
16.0% $3.30
$15.50
+233.3%
$5.30
+13.9%
52.0%+61.5%$4.65—
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
3.3% $32.23
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
18.0% $19.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
3.3% $16.71
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
3.3% $15.06
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
18.0% $12.97
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
18.0% $11.06
$32.23
+157.6%
$13.61
+8.8%
46.0%+35.2%$12.51—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1
Restricted → Classified Field-Tested
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
30.0% $35.39
Nouveau Rouge
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge
10.0% $21.36
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
30.0% $9.36
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
30.0% $9.12
$35.39
+121.9%
$18.30
+14.7%
40.0%+73.6%$15.95—
FS

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