The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Bock Blocks

2x $0.23
Fragment

3x $0.41
RMX

2x $0.50
Red Tide

2x $0.64
Shredded

1x $0.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry

10.0% $15.50
Electrum

14.0% $7.00
Glitched Paint

10.0% $6.50
Bleeding Edge

10.0% $5.42
Firebreathing

14.0% $5.02
Galigator

14.0% $3.34
Max Win
$15.50 (+194.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.77 (+9.8%)
Win %
44.0%
Volatility
+67.4%
Cost
$5.26
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.26
Ask Price EV $5.77 (+9.8%)
Bid Price EV $5.30 (+0.8%)
Ask Profit $0.51 (+9.8%)
Bid Profit $0.04 (+0.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.47 (+9.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.51
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.04
Risk
Win Probability 44.0%
Loss Probability 56.0%
Best Case $15.50 (+194.6%)
Worst Case $3.12 (-40.7%)
Volatility +67.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 42.0%
Avg Win +$3.20
Avg Loss -$1.60
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.12 (-40.7%)
Std Dev $3.55
Avg Norm Float 0.1491
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 12m
Oldest Output Price 155h 11m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested

$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested

$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear

$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear

$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear

$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear

$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Field-Tested

$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Field-Tested

$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear

$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 04M 19S //TOTAL COST $5.26 //ASK PRICE EV $5.77 //BID PRICE EV $5.30 //ASK PROFIT $0.51 (+9.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.04 (+0.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 44.0% //BEST CASE $15.50 //VOLATILITY +67.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated

BIG WIN
10.0%
$15.50
+$10.24
+194.6%
$14.49
+$9.23
+175.5%
$1.01
6.5%
—

WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$7.00
+$1.74
+33.0%
$5.93
+$0.67
+12.7%
$1.07
15.2%
—

WIN
10.0%
$6.50
+$1.24
+23.6%
$6.18
+$0.92
+17.5%
$0.32
5.0%
—

PAPER WIN
10.0%
$5.42
+$0.16
+3.0%
$5.20
-$0.06
-1.1%
$0.22
4.1%
—

LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$5.02
-$0.24
-4.6%
$3.97
-$1.29
-24.5%
$1.05
20.9%
—

LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$3.34
-$1.92
-36.4%
$3.25
-$2.01
-38.2%
$0.09
2.8%
—

LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$3.17
-$2.09
-39.7%
$3.14
-$2.12
-40.3%
$0.03
1.1%
—

NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$3.12
-$2.14
-40.7%
$3.10
-$2.16
-41.1%
$0.02
0.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.344,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:25.658034Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.1735,
"optimistic_value": 3.17,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:52.869026Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.12,
"optimistic_value": 3.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:52.739380Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11180999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.4975,
"optimistic_value": 15.27,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:30.576620Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0998836,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 6.502,
"optimistic_value": 6.39,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:31.874331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.08944799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.4195,
"optimistic_value": 5.36,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:45:17.196414Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_08d81fed63ba922271d4cc74",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "510739041955442182",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:13:02.095145Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983642533878695",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:13:02.095145Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "490472843633195751",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "526501640651263541",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "515242641502612789",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:22:54.586680Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "519746188259337632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:22:54.586680Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "491598743580519002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "505109437007054864",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:14:19.386177Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "526501535292841697",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:14:19.386177Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "493850543433108496",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:48.925319Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:7+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry ![]() 10.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint ![]() 10.0% $6.50 Bleeding Edge ![]() 10.0% $5.42 Electrum ![]() 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing ![]() 14.0% $2.79 Galigator ![]() 14.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +322.3% | $4.50 +22.7% | 44.0% | +101.1% | $3.67 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Mulberry ![]() 10.0% $32.23 Electrum ![]() 14.0% $19.50 Glitched Paint ![]() 10.0% $16.71 Bleeding Edge ![]() 10.0% $15.10 Firebreathing ![]() 14.0% $12.97 Galigator ![]() 14.0% $11.06 | $32.23 +120.9% | $15.33 +5.1% | 44.0% | +40.3% | $14.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Mulberry ![]() 10.0% $4.87 Electrum ![]() 14.0% $3.09 Glitched Paint ![]() 10.0% $2.97 Bleeding Edge ![]() 10.0% $2.08 Firebreathing ![]() 14.0% $2.02 Galigator ![]() 14.0% $1.98 | $4.87 +112.6% | $2.38 +3.8% | 34.0% | +38.4% | $2.29 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry ![]() 20.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint ![]() 20.0% $6.64 Bleeding Edge ![]() 20.0% $5.42 Electrum ![]() 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing ![]() 8.0% $2.79 Galigator ![]() 8.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +216.3% | $6.53 +33.2% | 60.0% | +90.0% | $4.90 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry ![]() 16.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint ![]() 16.7% $6.63 Bleeding Edge ![]() 16.7% $5.41 Electrum ![]() 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing ![]() 10.0% $2.79 Galigator ![]() 10.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +245.9% | $5.85 +30.6% | 50.0% | +95.3% | $4.48 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry ![]() 23.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint ![]() 23.3% $6.64 Bleeding Edge ![]() 23.3% $5.42 Electrum ![]() 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing ![]() 6.0% $2.79 Galigator ![]() 6.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +177.2% | $7.19 +28.6% | 46.7% | +80.3% | $5.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry ![]() 26.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint ![]() 26.7% $6.64 Bleeding Edge ![]() 26.7% $5.42 Electrum ![]() 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing ![]() 4.0% $2.79 Galigator ![]() 4.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +149.2% | $7.86 +26.3% | 53.3% | +72.7% | $6.22 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry ![]() 13.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint ![]() 13.3% $6.50 Bleeding Edge ![]() 13.3% $5.42 Electrum ![]() 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing ![]() 12.0% $2.79 Galigator ![]() 12.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +278.0% | $5.17 +26.0% | 52.0% | +98.6% | $4.10 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry ![]() 30.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint ![]() 30.0% $6.64 Bleeding Edge ![]() 30.0% $5.42 Electrum ![]() 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing ![]() 2.0% $2.79 Galigator ![]() 2.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +119.8% | $8.52 +20.8% | 30.0% | +64.1% | $7.05 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry ![]() 6.7% $15.50 Electrum ![]() 16.0% $7.00 Glitched Paint ![]() 6.7% $6.64 Bleeding Edge ![]() 6.7% $5.42 Firebreathing ![]() 16.0% $5.02 Galigator ![]() 16.0% $3.30 | $15.50 +233.3% | $5.30 +13.9% | 52.0% | +61.5% | $4.65 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Mulberry ![]() 3.3% $32.23 Electrum ![]() 18.0% $19.50 Glitched Paint ![]() 3.3% $16.71 Bleeding Edge ![]() 3.3% $15.06 Firebreathing ![]() 18.0% $12.97 Galigator ![]() 18.0% $11.06 | $32.23 +157.6% | $13.61 +8.8% | 46.0% | +35.2% | $12.51 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight ![]() 30.0% $35.39 Nouveau Rouge ![]() 10.0% $21.36 Deathgaze ![]() 30.0% $9.36 Kintsugi ![]() 30.0% $9.12 | $35.39 +121.9% | $18.30 +14.7% | 40.0% | +73.6% | $15.95 | — |



