The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
RMX
3x $0.50
Fragment
2x $0.66
Bock Blocks
1x $1.53
Dark Polymer
1x $2.12
Blush Pour
2x $1.53
Arsenic Spill
1x $2.16
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
10.0% $32.23
Electrum
14.0% $19.50
Glitched Paint
10.0% $16.71
Bleeding Edge
10.0% $15.10
Firebreathing
14.0% $12.97
Galigator
14.0% $11.06
Max Win
$32.23 (+120.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.33 (+5.1%)
Win %
44.0%
Volatility
+44.5%
Cost
$14.59
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.59
Ask Price EV $15.33 (+5.1%)
Bid Price EV $14.64 (+0.4%)
Ask Profit $0.74 (+5.1%)
Bid Profit $0.05 (+0.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.69 (+4.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.74
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.05
Risk
Win Probability 44.0%
Loss Probability 56.0%
Best Case $32.23 (+120.9%)
Worst Case $10.00 (-31.5%)
Volatility +44.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 28.0%
Avg Win +$6.17
Avg Loss -$3.53
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.00 (-31.5%)
Std Dev $6.49
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 155h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.54 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Factory New
$2.12 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.16 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 40S //TOTAL COST $14.59 //ASK PRICE EV $15.33 //BID PRICE EV $14.64 //ASK PROFIT $0.74 (+5.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.05 (+0.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 44.0% //BEST CASE $32.23 //VOLATILITY +44.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$32.23
+$17.64
+120.9%
$31.18
+$16.59
+113.7%
$1.05
3.3%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$19.50
+$4.91
+33.6%
$17.32
+$2.73
+18.7%
$2.18
11.2%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$16.71
+$2.12
+14.6%
$16.69
+$2.10
+14.4%
$0.02
0.1%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$15.10
+$0.51
+3.5%
$14.75
+$0.16
+1.1%
$0.35
2.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$12.97
-$1.62
-11.1%
$11.57
-$3.02
-20.7%
$1.40
10.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$11.06
-$3.53
-24.2%
$10.78
-$3.81
-26.1%
$0.28
2.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$10.23
-$4.36
-29.9%
$10.21
-$4.38
-30.0%
$0.02
0.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$10.00
-$4.59
-31.5%
$9.98
-$4.61
-31.6%
$0.02
0.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.0575,
"optimistic_value": 11.04,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:28.095828Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.233500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:28.053348Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 10,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:48.980504Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0524775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 32.231500000000004,
"optimistic_value": 31.92,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:29.613242Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04687990000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.7135,
"optimistic_value": 16.71,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:44.941350Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 15.096499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 15.03,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 14.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:28.486410Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_08d81fed63ba922271d4cc74",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "515242641502612789",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:26.650709Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "519746188259337632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:26.650709Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "491598743580519002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983642533926539",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:35.705339Z"
},
{
"price": 1.54,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "503983642533910159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:50.065948Z"
},
{
"price": 2.12,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "519746241188345048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:22.372179Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "511864941882379353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:11.083889Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:21.809733Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:21.809733Z"
},
{
"price": 2.16,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "501731842662858953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:52.958810Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:7+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.50 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.42 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +322.3% | $4.50 +22.7% | 44.0% | +101.1% | $3.67 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 10.0% $15.50 Electrum 14.0% $7.00 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.50 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.42 Firebreathing 14.0% $5.02 Galigator 14.0% $3.34 | $15.50 +194.6% | $5.77 +9.8% | 44.0% | +62.0% | $5.26 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Mulberry 10.0% $4.87 Electrum 14.0% $3.09 Glitched Paint 10.0% $2.97 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $2.08 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.02 Galigator 14.0% $1.98 | $4.87 +112.6% | $2.38 +3.8% | 34.0% | +38.4% | $2.29 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.64 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.42 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +216.3% | $6.53 +33.2% | 60.0% | +90.0% | $4.90 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.63 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.41 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +245.9% | $5.85 +30.6% | 50.0% | +95.3% | $4.48 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.64 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.42 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +177.2% | $7.19 +28.6% | 46.7% | +80.3% | $5.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.64 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.42 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +149.2% | $7.86 +26.3% | 53.3% | +72.7% | $6.22 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.50 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.42 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +278.0% | $5.17 +26.0% | 52.0% | +98.6% | $4.10 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.64 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.42 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +119.8% | $8.52 +20.8% | 30.0% | +64.1% | $7.05 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 6.7% $15.50 Electrum 16.0% $7.00 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.64 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.42 Firebreathing 16.0% $5.02 Galigator 16.0% $3.30 | $15.50 +233.3% | $5.30 +13.9% | 52.0% | +61.5% | $4.65 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Mulberry 3.3% $32.23 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Glitched Paint 3.3% $16.71 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $15.06 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.06 | $32.23 +157.6% | $13.61 +8.8% | 46.0% | +35.2% | $12.51 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.36 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.12 | $35.39 +121.9% | $18.30 +14.7% | 40.0% | +73.6% | $15.95 | — |