The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Dark Polymer
1x $0.21
Fragment
5x $0.23
Zubastick
1x $0.53
Shredded
1x $0.37
Blush Pour
1x $0.37
Red Tide
1x $0.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
10.0% $15.50
Glitched Paint
10.0% $6.78
Bleeding Edge
10.0% $5.44
Electrum
14.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
14.0% $2.79
Galigator
14.0% $2.19
Max Win
$15.50 (+328.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.54 (+25.3%)
Win %
44.0%
Volatility
+110.5%
Cost
$3.62
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.62
Ask Price EV $4.54 (+25.3%)
Bid Price EV $4.12 (+13.8%)
Ask Profit $0.92 (+25.3%)
Bid Profit $0.50 (+13.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.42 (+11.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.92
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.50
Risk
Win Probability 44.0%
Loss Probability 56.0%
Best Case $15.50 (+328.1%)
Worst Case $1.76 (-51.5%)
Volatility +110.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 42.0%
Avg Win +$3.99
Avg Loss -$1.50
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.76 (-51.5%)
Std Dev $4.00
Avg Norm Float 0.1987
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 154h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 55M 12S //TOTAL COST $3.62 //ASK PRICE EV $4.54 //BID PRICE EV $4.12 //ASK PROFIT $0.92 (+25.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.50 (+13.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 44.0% //BEST CASE $15.50 //VOLATILITY +110.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$15.50
+$11.88
+328.1%
$14.49
+$10.87
+300.3%
$1.01
6.5%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$6.78
+$3.16
+87.4%
$6.18
+$2.56
+70.7%
$0.60
8.9%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$5.44
+$1.82
+50.3%
$5.20
+$1.58
+43.6%
$0.24
4.4%
—
PAPER WIN
14.0%
$4.11
+$0.49
+13.6%
$3.61
-$0.01
-0.3%
$0.50
12.2%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.79
-$0.83
-23.0%
$2.32
-$1.30
-35.9%
$0.47
16.8%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.19
-$1.43
-39.6%
$1.74
-$1.88
-51.9%
$0.45
20.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.76
-$1.86
-51.3%
$1.64
-$1.98
-54.7%
$0.12
7.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.76
-$1.86
-51.5%
$1.63
-$1.99
-55.0%
$0.13
7.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.19866,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.19866,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.19866,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.19866,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7635,
"optimistic_value": 1.76,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:59:48.032078Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.19866,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.757,
"optimistic_value": 1.75,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:31.318879Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.148995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.4975,
"optimistic_value": 15.27,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:30.576620Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1331022,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 6.7844999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:43.051387Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.119196,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.442,
"optimistic_value": 5.4,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:41.111714Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_08d81fed63ba922271d4cc74",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "515242641502327381",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:59:56.853071Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "494976443342737050",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:14.306793Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "508487242223004842",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:14.306793Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "526501640651497541",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:46.547336Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "490472843633195751",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:46.547336Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "526501640651263541",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:46.547336Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "490472843633363367",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:03:53.680604Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "511864941882372873",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:07.483215Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "518620341243851032",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:25.258139Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "491598743581017674",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:52.857153Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:7+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 10.0% $15.50 Electrum 14.0% $7.00 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.44 Firebreathing 14.0% $5.02 Galigator 14.0% $3.30 | $15.50 +196.3% | $5.80 +10.8% | 44.0% | +62.5% | $5.23 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Mulberry 10.0% $32.23 Electrum 14.0% $19.50 Glitched Paint 10.0% $16.71 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $15.33 Firebreathing 14.0% $12.97 Galigator 14.0% $11.03 | $32.23 +116.9% | $15.34 +3.2% | 44.0% | +39.5% | $14.86 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.45 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +215.6% | $6.56 +33.6% | 60.0% | +89.7% | $4.91 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.45 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +243.6% | $5.88 +30.3% | 50.0% | +94.7% | $4.51 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.45 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +177.2% | $7.23 +29.4% | 46.7% | +80.0% | $5.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.63 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.41 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +284.6% | $5.18 +28.5% | 52.0% | +100.4% | $4.03 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.45 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +149.2% | $7.91 +27.2% | 53.3% | +72.3% | $6.22 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.45 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.50 +119.5% | $8.58 +21.6% | 30.0% | +63.5% | $7.06 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Mulberry 3.3% $32.23 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Glitched Paint 3.3% $16.71 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $15.06 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.06 | $32.23 +159.9% | $13.61 +9.8% | 46.0% | +35.6% | $12.40 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Mulberry 6.7% $32.23 Electrum 16.0% $19.50 Glitched Paint 6.7% $16.71 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $15.33 Firebreathing 16.0% $12.97 Galigator 16.0% $11.06 | $32.23 +136.3% | $14.49 +6.2% | 36.0% | +38.5% | $13.64 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  26.7% $35.39 Nouveau Rouge  20.0% $21.36 Kintsugi  26.7% $9.23 Deathgaze  26.7% $9.14 | $35.39 +117.9% | $18.61 +14.6% | 46.7% | +68.6% | $16.24 | — |