The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Lake Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
High Beam
1x $0.27
Calf Skin
1x $0.28
Candy Apple
1x $0.35
Nitro
1x $0.35
Mudder
3x $0.08
Safari Mesh
1x $0.20
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Ops
20.0% $7.22
Converter
10.0% $3.83
Check Engine
10.0% $3.75
Hand Brake
10.0% $2.79
Brake Light
10.0% $1.75
Teardown
20.0% $1.65
Max Win
$7.22 (+176.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.20 (+22.5%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+85.0%
Cost
$2.61
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.61
Ask Price EV $3.20 (+22.5%)
Bid Price EV $3.05 (+16.7%)
Ask Profit $0.59 (+22.5%)
Bid Profit $0.44 (+16.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.15 (+5.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.59
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.44
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $7.22 (+176.5%)
Worst Case $1.05 (-59.6%)
Volatility +85.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$2.35
Avg Loss -$1.18
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.05 (-59.6%)
Std Dev $2.22
Avg Norm Float 0.1167
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 147h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Glock-18 | High Beam
—
Factory New
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Calf Skin
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Candy Apple
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 42S //TOTAL COST $2.61 //ASK PRICE EV $3.20 //BID PRICE EV $3.05 //ASK PROFIT $0.59 (+22.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.44 (+16.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $7.22 //VOLATILITY +85.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$7.22
+$4.61
+176.5%
$6.84
+$4.23
+162.1%
$0.38
5.2%
—
WIN
10.0%
$3.83
+$1.22
+46.8%
$3.60
+$0.99
+37.9%
$0.23
6.0%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$3.75
+$1.14
+43.7%
$3.65
+$1.04
+39.8%
$0.10
2.7%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$2.79
+$0.18
+6.7%
$2.59
-$0.02
-0.8%
$0.20
7.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.75
-$0.86
-33.0%
$1.68
-$0.93
-35.6%
$0.07
4.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$1.65
-$0.96
-36.8%
$1.64
-$0.97
-37.2%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.05
-$1.56
-59.6%
$0.99
-$1.62
-62.1%
$0.06
6.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:49.385560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.009332,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0545,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:18:02.371361Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04666000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff8258cd7dac",
"realistic_value": 3.831,
"optimistic_value": 3.81,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Converter",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:34:03.476607Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff8258cd7dac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11665,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c0a577a1a5b2",
"realistic_value": 2.7855,
"optimistic_value": 2.67,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake",
"conservative_value": 2.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:36.872616Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0a577a1a5b2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.009332,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"realistic_value": 1.75,
"optimistic_value": 1.75,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"conservative_value": 1.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:19.300499Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"realistic_value": 3.751,
"optimistic_value": 3.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:02.225668Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_07be32d474698b821cf39ec5",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-8d1c8d592ffb",
"listing_id": "492724643507065737",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | High Beam",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d1c8d592ffb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:18:50.155468Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-7f9562bfa6a5",
"listing_id": "515242588555312621",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f9562bfa6a5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:56.579194Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-505c66da36c8",
"listing_id": "493850543431779772",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-505c66da36c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:57.515884Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "517494388633448878",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:14.536764Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "512989991912631707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:35:15.846777Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "500605942755441071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:35:15.846777Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "524249787961907475",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:34:50.359090Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "739281922467942232",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:36:45.429747Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "491598743580381806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:08.000121Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "526501587736690685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:39.571376Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:4+collection-set-lake:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Lake Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 16.7% $7.22 Converter 12.5% $3.83 Check Engine 12.5% $3.75 Hand Brake 12.5% $2.79 Brake Light 12.5% $1.75 Teardown 16.7% $1.65 | $7.22 +175.5% | $3.17 +20.9% | 54.2% | +71.2% | $2.62 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×7+The Lake Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Hand Brake 17.5% $2.00 Converter 17.5% $1.91 Brake Light 17.5% $1.74 Check Engine 17.5% $1.65 Anodized Navy 10.0% $1.02 Night Ops 10.0% $0.33 | $2.00 +57.8% | $1.43 +12.8% | 70.0% | +40.2% | $1.27 | — |