The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Lake Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Calf Skin
1x $0.30
Nitro
3x $0.35
Mudder
1x $0.31
Cyanospatter
1x $0.41
Safari Mesh
3x $0.47
Night Ops
1x $1.44
↓
Possible Outputs
Hand Brake
10.0% $9.30
Night Ops
20.0% $7.22
Check Engine
10.0% $3.75
Converter
10.0% $3.69
Brake Light
10.0% $1.73
Teardown
20.0% $1.65
Max Win
$9.30 (+42.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.82 (-41.4%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+44.0%
Cost
$6.53
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.53
Ask Price EV $3.82 (-41.4%)
Bid Price EV $3.69 (-43.4%)
Ask Profit $-2.71 (-41.4%)
Bid Profit $-2.84 (-43.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.13 (+2.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.71
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.84
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $9.30 (+42.4%)
Worst Case $1.02 (-84.4%)
Volatility +44.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$1.38
Avg Loss -$4.46
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.02 (-84.4%)
Std Dev $2.87
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 148h 7m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Calf Skin
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Ops
—
Factory New
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 00M 32S //TOTAL COST $6.53 //ASK PRICE EV $3.82 //BID PRICE EV $3.69 //ASK PROFIT $-2.71 (-41.4%) //BID PROFIT $-2.84 (-43.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $9.30 //VOLATILITY +44.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.30
+$2.77
+42.4%
$9.06
+$2.53
+38.7%
$0.24
2.6%
—
SMALL WIN
20.0%
$7.22
+$0.69
+10.5%
$6.84
+$0.31
+4.7%
$0.38
5.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.75
-$2.78
-42.6%
$3.65
-$2.88
-44.1%
$0.10
2.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.69
-$2.84
-43.4%
$3.60
-$2.93
-44.9%
$0.09
2.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.73
-$4.80
-73.5%
$1.68
-$4.85
-74.3%
$0.05
2.9%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.65
-$4.88
-74.7%
$1.64
-$4.89
-74.9%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.02
-$5.51
-84.4%
$0.99
-$5.54
-84.8%
$0.03
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.041825999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:01.052095Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.0055768,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0175,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:31:11.503770Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.041825999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.027884,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff8258cd7dac",
"realistic_value": 3.693,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Converter",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:17.009876Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff8258cd7dac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06971,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c0a577a1a5b2",
"realistic_value": 9.298,
"optimistic_value": 9.2,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake",
"conservative_value": 9.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:51:31.434942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0a577a1a5b2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0055768,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"realistic_value": 1.7305,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"conservative_value": 1.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:13.542685Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041825999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"realistic_value": 3.751,
"optimistic_value": 3.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:55.137136Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_07be32d474698b821cf39ec5",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-7f9562bfa6a5",
"listing_id": "658230515401384094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f9562bfa6a5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:34.503942Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "517494388633448878",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:46.581749Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "519746241188634056",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:46.581749Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "516368436281895074",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:46.581749Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "491598743580381806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:44.299982Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "526501587736690685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:37.683534Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "524249787961446315",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:56.633547Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "511864888984294569",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:56.633547Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "644719716497744487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:56.633547Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-1cae9ba1aa38",
"listing_id": "506234592341299476",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Ops",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1cae9ba1aa38.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:50.944756Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:4+collection-set-lake:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Lake Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 20.0% $7.22 Check Engine 10.0% $3.75 Converter 10.0% $3.69 Hand Brake 10.0% $2.79 Brake Light 10.0% $1.73 Teardown 20.0% $1.65 | $7.22 +164.4% | $3.17 +16.2% | 50.0% | +73.4% | $2.73 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Lake Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 16.7% $7.22 Check Engine 12.5% $3.75 Converter 12.5% $3.69 Hand Brake 12.5% $2.79 Brake Light 12.5% $1.73 Teardown 16.7% $1.65 | $7.22 +169.3% | $3.14 +17.3% | 54.2% | +69.7% | $2.68 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×7+The Lake Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 10.0% $7.22 Check Engine 17.5% $3.75 Converter 17.5% $3.72 Hand Brake 17.5% $2.79 Brake Light 17.5% $1.73 Teardown 10.0% $1.65 | $7.22 +163.4% | $3.09 +12.6% | 62.5% | +56.5% | $2.74 | — |